When You Ride Alone …

Speaking of the Highway Trust Fund — talk of federal gasoline taxes reminded me that very early in the Bush Administration there was a big push to keep HTF money from being spent on mass transit.

Very basically, the gas taxes are collected by the federal government, which takes its cut and then allocates the remainder as the federal government sees fit. According to the Department of Transportation, “Of the 18.3 cents collected per gallon of gas, 12 cents goes into the highway account, 2 cents goes into the mass transit account, and 4.3 cents is credited to the general fund of the Treasury.”

So back in July 2001 some guy from the Heritage Foundation, naturally, complained that “our roads” were suffering because of the 2 cents that went to mass transit. “Our roads” need that 2 cents. And most of the mass transit money went to a handful of “rich” (read “blue”) states, anyway!

In the case of Virginia, as well as 24 other mostly Southern states, the amount of money returned is less than the taxes paid, while the other 26 states, mostly in the North, get more back than they pay. … today as much as 18 percent of trust-fund revenues paid by motorists are reserved for transit programs that benefit only a tiny fraction of commuters–currently about 5 percent.

Moreover, federal transit spending suffers from regional imbalances that are worse than those for highway spending. In 1999, more than 50 percent of federal transit spending went to just five states–California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Texas.

I never realized that California and Texas were in the north, but never mind. I remember that some Republican politicians proposed sending all the money collected in federal gas taxes within a state back to that state, minus the federal share. That way, poor and hard-driving red states wouldn’t end up subsidizing rich mass transit-riding blue states. I recall some guy — I think it was a Texas congressman, but I can’t find a link — making speeches about the evils of subsidized (read “socialist”) urban mass transit versus good ol’ all American payin’-for-themselves highways stretching across the heartland.

One problem with that idea is that overall the federal taxes collected in blue states subsidize more programs in red states than the other way around. Paul Krugman wrote in May 2002,

As a group, red states pay considerably less in taxes than the federal government spends within their borders; blue states pay considerably more. Over all, blue America subsidizes red America to the tune of $90 billion or so each year.

And within the red states, it’s the metropolitan areas that pay the taxes, while the rural regions get the subsidies. When you do the numbers for red states without major cities, you find that they look like Montana, which in 1999 received $1.75 in federal spending for every dollar it paid in federal taxes. The numbers for my home state of New Jersey were almost the opposite. Add in the hidden subsidies, like below-cost provision of water for irrigation, nearly free use of federal land for grazing and so on, and it becomes clear that in economic terms America’s rural heartland is our version of southern Italy: a region whose inhabitants are largely supported by aid from their more productive compatriots.

I dimly remember Senator Schumer suggesting that maybe the “blue” states should get back all their taxes, too, and how would you like them apples?

And it’s not like mass transit consumers are getting a free ride. If you commute into Manhattan on the Metro North Railroad, for example, you pay between $123 and $357 a month, depending on where you live along the line. Long Island Railroad riders pay between $130 and $342 a month. But unless you get a subsidized parking place as a job perk (rare), it’s cheaper than driving. If you live in the city and take a subway to work, a 30-day unlimited ride Metrocard will cost you $78. For people in low-wage jobs that’s a lot. Yet the expense of operating these transit systems is higher than revenue. Subsidy is required.

Most of the nation’s wealth is generated in our cities, and most big cities couldn’t exist without some kind of mass transit system. It may be hard for a taxpayer in rural Nebraska to grasp that his life is better because of the Long Island Railroad, but it is. And now that the Age of Cheap Gasoline seems to be coming to an end, seems to me a lot of people who turned up their noses at mass transit in the past might want to change their attitudes.

Back where I grew up in the Ozarks, every weekday morning a great many cars carrying one passenger each head northeast highway 67 and then take highway 55 north into St. Louis, where the one passenger has a job. The drive takes an hour, give or take, assuming no bottlenecks form. And then, of course, in the evening they come back. This happens around every city in America. Now, I grew up in the Midwest and I realize everything is spread out there, and you need to drive to get anywhere you want to go. Manhattan may be the only place in America where people can function very happily without ever driving a car.

However, seems to me the day will come when fewer and fewer people will be able to afford to drive two hours a day between work and home. But how long will it take for conservatives to figure out that putting all of our tax dollars into highways while starving mass transit is, um, shortsighted?

Gassed

Billmon writes,

It’s a little disconcerting to think that gas prices — not Iraq, not Katrina, not the extra-constitutional power grabs — could decide whether Shrub’s presidency recovers or collapses into complete irrelevancy for the next three years. But the good Dr. Pollkatz has already plotted the relationship, and it’s statistically suggestive, to say the least.

It’s especially disconcerting when you consider that in 2000 the Bush campaign criticized the Clinton-Gore administration for its inability to lower gas prices.

Mr. Bush was critical of Al Gore in the 2000 campaign for being part of “the administration that’s been in charge” while the “price of gasoline has gone steadily upward.” In December 1999, in the first Republican primary debate, Mr. Bush said President Clinton “must jawbone OPEC members to lower prices.”

Katharine Q. Seelye wrote in the June 22, 2000 New York Times — “Price of Gasoline Emerges as Issue in Bush-Gore Race” —

Mr. Bush and Republicans on Capitol Hill blame the gas-price increase on the Clinton administration, saying the administration has had no coherent domestic energy policy and, in imposing regulations to meet clean air standards, had allowed prices to drift as high as $2.39 a gallon in the Midwest. Mr. Bush also said the administration had failed to persuade the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to ”open the spigots” to increase the supply.

After an announcement that the Federal Trade Commission would be investigating possible price gouging, Vice President Gore’s campaign made a point of connecting Governor Bush to Big Oil.

Senator Harkin, speaking on behalf of the Gore campaign on a conference call with reporters, accused the oil companies of ”outright thievery.” He went on to castigate Mr. Bush for his ”silence” on the matter, saying, ”What can you expect of someone who once claimed, and I quote, ‘There’s no such thing as being too closely aligned to the oil business in West Texas’?”

The quotation from Mr. Bush was made in a 1978 Congressional campaign. Acknowledging that the quotation was more than 20 years old, Mr. Harkin said: ”The point is, the test of character and leadership is when you’re willing to take on your friends when it’s in the nation’s best interest.”

Mr. Bush signed an emergency tax bill in 1999 that gave state tax breaks to oil and gas companies. The Dallas Morning News reported that the bill saved Richard Rainwater, a former Bush business partner, $1 million. At least 14 of Mr. Bush’s ”Pioneers,” his largest financial contributors, have ties to the oil industry.

Mr. Bush’s campaign has received $1.5 million from energy interests as of April 30, while Mr. Gore had received less than $125,000 as of the same date.

It seems some voters made the connection but believed Bush’s connections to Big Oil would help him pull prices down. From a blogger’s election 2000 notes

I got a big piece of this analysis from thinking about a comment from an AR relative, who said she voted for Bush because she thought that Bush would keep gas prices lower, and that mattered a lot. This was counterintuitive to me: the US oil industry (Bush’s home turf) lives and dies on gas prices, and the higher the better. One could even argue that Bush pere conspired with the Saudis to keep Saddam Hussein in power in Iraq in order to keep Iraq’s oil off the market, to keep Iraq from depressing the market.

If it’s Tuesday, it’s time for new record low Bush approval ratings. Georgia10 writes,

So President Bush woke up today and suddenly gave a damn about gas prices. Mr. 32% spent this morning calling for a investigation into possible cheating, price gouging or illegal manipulation in the gasoline markets. He also will asked the EPA to ease clean air restrictions, and he temporarily stopped deposits into the strategic petroleum reserve, a move that will have only a “negligible” impact on gas prices. The media are lapping it up, but they refuse to mention that Bush is forced to face the consequences of his own failed energy policy.

Taylor Marsh:

This is the most preposterous story I’ve read recently. Bush is going after his own people, the ones who helped get him elected. He’s going after the very men and companies that have led to this situation. First, Bush allows private meetings with oil companies and others, including people representing nuclear, so they can help craft our energy policy. Republicans give subsidies to companies that don’t need it. All the while President Bush doesn’t do a thing to help mitigate our independence, believing only ANWAR is the answer. If it isn’t drilling it doesn’t have a place in Bush’s world. We’ve also got Frist and Hastert planning to look into the oil companies. There’s only one reason they’re doing this and it’s because there’s an election. They’re trying to save themselves. The don’t want solutions or they would have been working on one long before now. Bush has been in office for years. What, he’s now just discovering we have an energy problem? This is a charade.

Besides, if Bush wants to know if price gouging is going on why doesn’t he just pick up the phone? Republicans know these guys, the oil men. They are one of their own. Don’t go through this political dance. Just go to the men who brought you to Washington and ask them. It’s not like they wouldn’t take Bush’s call.

I ‘spect it’s the same reason he didn’t try real hard to look into the Valerie Plame leak — he doesn’t really want to know.

Back to Georgia10:

Where has the President been for the last three years or so, as we’ve seen gas prices skyrocket? First, he promised the Iraq War would lower gas prices. As his senior economic adviser stated in 2002:

    “The key issue is oil, and a regime change in Iraq would facilitate an increase in world oil,” which would drive down oil prices, giving the U.S. economy an added boost.

It turns out that the Iraq War didn’t increase world oil, only oil profits. So, then, President Bush promised that his energy policy (which included massive tax breaks for the oil industry) would help our energy crisis. Well, it did not help, but that result is to be expected when our nation’s energy policy is drafted by the oil industry.

So where has the President been? Obviously, his administration does not shoulder all of the blame for high gas prices. But his deliberate absence and incompetence on this issue have only made the situation worse.

Now that the issue finally has his attention, he realized this would be a great time to suspend environmental rules for oil refiners. Typical. And he’s making more noise about our “addiction to oil,” although I haven’t noticed he’s come up with any concrete program to ween us of our addiction.

Meanwhile, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) has proposed that federal gas taxes be eliminated for 60 days. This would reduce the price of gas by more than 18 cents a gallon. Democrats propose cutting six billion dollars in tax breaks to oil firms to make up the lost revenue. Currently, the money from the federal gas tax goes to the Highway Trust fund.

Of course, what we really need to do is get serious about alternate energy sources and put more money into mass transit — the sort of thing Al Gore was talking about many years ago. But you know how it is — conservation and solar energy are for sissies. Real men drill.

Gulag Politics

Mark Hosenball and Michael Isikoff report for Newsweek that Mary McCarthy “has denied she was the source of a controversial Washington Post story about alleged CIA secret detention operations in Eastern Europe.” Further,

McCarthy’s lawyer, Ty Cobb, told NEWSWEEK this afternoon that contrary to public statements by the CIA late last week, McCarthy never confessed to agency interrogators that she had divulged classified information and “didn’t even have access to the information” in The Washington Post story in question.

Larry Johnson had said as much on his blog a couple of days ago:

In fact, there are some things about the case that puzzle me. For starters, Mary never worked on the Operations side of the house. In other words, she never worked a job where she would have had first hand operational knowledge about secret prisons. She worked the analytical side of the CIA and served with the National Intelligence Council. According to press reports, she subsequently worked at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) from 2001 thru 2005. That is a type of academic/policy wonk position and, again, would not put her in a position to know anything first hand about secret prisons.

According to Hosenball and Isikoff, “McCarthy did acknowledge that she had failed to report contacts with Washington Post reporter Dana Priest and at least one other reporter. … McCarthy has known Priest for some time. … the CIA was not necessarily accusing her of being the principal, original, or sole leaker of any particular story.” (Emphasis added.)

It is possible, then, that McCarthy had absolutely nothing to do with the secret prison story. In fact, Hosenball and Isikoff report, other journalists reporting on this story say they got most of their information from unclassified sources.

Glenn Greenwald
: “Priest’s original story itself made clear said that her reporting was based upon ‘current and former U.S. intelligence officials and foreign sources.'”

When she was fired, McCarthy was told her identity would be protected. The next day it was all over the news.

Keeping in mind that everything we say is speculative … Steve M. writes,

I find myself thinking about this recent Molly Ivins column:

    …[Karl] Rove, as all the world knows, has been a longtime Republican political operative in Texas prior to heading to Washington with Bush. During that time, Texas Democrats noticed a pattern that they eventually became somewhat paranoid about: In election years, there always seemed to be an FBI investigation of some sitting Democrat either announced or leaked to the press.

    After the election was over, the allegations often vanished….

Ivins goes on to note that one particular FBI agent seemed to be Rove’s go-to guy back in Texas. Now, though, Rove has the whole federal government to play with — he doesn’t need just one pal.

If the accusations against McCarthy turn out to be one of Karl’s red herrings, this could come back to bite him, big time.

Naturally, righties are still howling for McCarthy’s blood. The rightie blog Hot Air provides a handy-dandy roundup of rightie groupthink regarding McCarthy and why the revelation proves that just about every Democrat on the planet must be guilty of something. This paragraph in particular caught my attention:

And man, did she [McCarthy] ever get caught. WaPo says she failed multiple polygraphs before confessing. AJ Strata cites reports describing a “pattern of behavior”. But what’s really got right-wing bloggers exercised is the discovery that McCarthy and her husband have donated upwards of $10,000 to Democratic political campaigns and organizations since 2004. Curiously enough, certain mainstream media outlets have had trouble nailing down the exact figure despite the fact that Ace and Tom Maguire were able to find it on OpenSecrets.org in about thirty seconds. And that’s not the only convenient omission from their predictably sympathetic coverage. Sweetness & Light looks at two of the press’s go-to guys on this story – former CIA analysts Ray McGovern and Larry Johnson – and reveals a few salient facts about their views on intelligence that somehow have managed to fly under the media’s radar.

I doubt the “certain media outlets” weren’t able to find the amount of money McCarthy and her husband donated to Democrats. Rather, to someone who’s not a blazing-hot partisan the information is not particularly significant, especially before McCarthy has actually been convicted of anything. No rational person would jump to the conclusion that someone in McCarthy’s position would risk arrest and tarnish a many-years-long career over mere party politics. And, of course, the “salient facts” about Johnson and McGovern are that they’ve spoken out against the Bush Administration’s deceitful manipulation of intelligence. In RightieWorld only other righties are allowed to be “go-to guys.”

Speaking of Larry Johnson, he writes in “Between Conscience and Unconscionable“:

And what have we learned this week? If you have contributed any money to Democrats you are a traitor if you criticize the President. Rand Beers, a senior national security advisor who served in the Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush administrations was labeled a turncoat. Joe and Valerie Wilson? Guilty because they had the temerity to participate in politics and contribute to Al Gore (although they also contributed to George Bush senior). Mary McCarthy? Guilty as well for contributing to John Kerry. Of course, we can conveniently forget that she stood up to the Clinton Administration for its unjustified bombing of a factory in Sudan. Why worry about facts? Bush finds them convenient to ignore.

What we are witnessing is a political purge of the CIA. The Bush Administration is working to expel and isolate any intelligence officer who does not toe the line and profess allegiance to George. It is no longer about protecting and defending the Constitution. No. It is about protecting the indefensible reputation of George Bush.

The firing of Mary McCarthy and her trial in the media is a travesty. Particularly when George Bush continues to harbor leakers who put selfish political motives above the welfare of this nation. It remains to be seen if Mary McCarthy had anything to do with the leak of secret prisons. There is no doubt, however, that Karl Rove, Scooter Libby, Stephen Hadley, Dick Cheney, and George Bush directly participated in a campaign to leak misleading intelligence information to the American people. Patrick Fitzgerald’s court filings make that point abundantly clear. Under George Bush, America is being asked to tolerate Gulag Politics. That is something I find intolerable and unconscionable.

See also:

Glenn Greenwald: “A Political Movement Built on Rage

Digby: “Agitating for a Crackdown

Taylor Marsh: “McCarthy as CIA Scapegoat

More History Notes

We seem to be having American History week. We determined that Bush is no FDR, and then we argued that Bush is no Lincoln. He may eventually win the title of “Worst President in History,” however.

Arthur Schlesinger Jr. weighs in today with “Bush’s Thousand Days” in the Washington Post. Schlesinger agrees that Bush is no Lincoln; nor is he Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, or John F. Kennedy. I think most of us lefties had noticed this.

Schlesinger also noticed, as I wrote here, that Bush doesn’t explain his policies and decisions.

The issue of preventive war as a presidential prerogative is hardly new. In February 1848 Rep. Abraham Lincoln explained his opposition to the Mexican War: “Allow the President to invade a neighboring nation, whenever he shall deem it necessary to repel an invasion and you allow him to do so whenever he may choose to say he deems it necessary for such purpose — and you allow him to make war at pleasure [emphasis added]. . . . If, today, he should choose to say he thinks it necessary to invade Canada to prevent the British from invading us, how could you stop him? You may say to him, ‘I see no probability of the British invading us’; but he will say to you, ‘Be silent; I see it, if you don’t.’ ”

This is precisely how George W. Bush sees his presidential prerogative: Be silent; I see it, if you don’t .

In other words, this is no way to start a war. The president must explain to the nation why we’re going to war — and it has to be real reasons, not made up ones — before we can give an informed consent to going to war. If the president starts a war against the will of We, the People, then we’re no longer a constitutional democracy, are we?

Schlesinger is concerned that Bush will launch another “preventive” war with Iran, and he argues that history shows us that dangerous enemies can often better be dealt with in other ways than going to war. War sometimes makes a bad situation worse, in fact.

There aren’t many rightie responses to this column so far, but one of the few deserves special mention. He starts with a standard straw man:

It never fails to amaze me how liberals seem to think there are no bad guys in the world.

The blogger goes from there to the claim that “Schlesinger blames Bush” for nukes in Iran, when Schlesinger said no such thing. Schlesinger didn’t address the “nukes in Iran” question directly at all, never mind say whose “fault” anything is. But he did discuss the Cuban Missile Crisis. Cuba, my dears, had nukes.

This is Schlesinger:

It was lucky that JFK was determined to get the missiles out peacefully, because only decades later did we discover that the Soviet forces in Cuba had tactical nuclear weapons and orders to use them to repel a U.S. invasion. This would have meant a nuclear exchange. Instead, JFK used his own thousand days to give the American University speech, a powerful plea to Americans as well as to Russians to reexamine “our own attitude — as individuals and as a nation — for our attitude is as essential as theirs.” This was followed by the limited test ban treaty. …

…The Cuban missile crisis was not only the most dangerous moment of the Cold War. It was the most dangerous moment in all human history. Never before had two contending powers possessed between them the technical capacity to destroy the planet. Had there been exponents of preventive war in the White House, there probably would have been nuclear war.

The difference between a real leader and statesman (JFK) and, um, Bush, is that JFK not only confronted the Soviets and the Cubans and got them to stand down without firing a shot; he used the incident to push for a limited test ban treaty. Bush and his rightie supporters, however, see war as their first and only option, not the last option. They know only how to destroy, not to build.

This paragraph reveals why the blogger is a tad unqualified to argue about history with Arthur Schlesinger Jr.:

The notion that Truman ruled out preemptive war with Russia [I assume he’s referring to the USSR] after World War II is a bit of a stretch. There, Russia only threatened Eastern Europe, not the United States. They had overwhelming conventional power on the continent, we had only a few divisions. Iran, on the other hand, threatens the entire world economy. Iran, through its minions, threatens terrorist attacks inside the United States. No, this is a terribly different situation. Russia never posed the same threat as Iran does.

Wow, I wish someone would have explained that to us back in the 1950s and 1960s. People wouldn’t have wasted all that time and money building backyard bomb shelters. The rightie might want to check out who the players were in the Cuban Missile Crisis, however, and who it was that was installing all those nukes in Cuba. Oh, and don’t forget the Soviets had nuclear-armed submarines that maneuvered into range from time to time …

Finally:

But his column carries another signature, the signature of the looney left true believer. He says this:

    Observers describe Bush as “messianic” in his conviction that he is fulfilling the divine purpose.

Note that no one is named; only “observers”. This is a convenient way to make a charge without substance.

Uh-HUH, son. First, you don’t get to start a post with a straw man and then whine about other peoples’ straw men. This is called “intellectual dishonesty.”

Second, if this is the first time you’ve run into the “Bush is messianic” observation, you need to get out more. Google for “Bush messianic.” You will get lots of hits. Some good ones near the top include this, this, and this. Happy reading.

The Dumbest Thing I Have Ever Read on the Internets

A rightie named Thomas Bray has come up with the most tortured, desperate, sophomoric howl of flaming ignorance yet known to mankind to excuse George W. Bush’s mishandling of Iraq. Get this:

The President “lied” us into war. Much of the pre-war intelligence was wrong. The civilian defense chief was detested as “brusque, domineering and unbearably unpleasant to work with.” Civil liberties were abridged. And many embittered Democrats, claiming the war had been an utter failure, demanded that the administration bring the troops home.

George Bush? Well, yes – but also a President who looms far larger in American history, Abraham Lincoln.

Let’s take these claims one at a time.

1. “Lincoln ‘lied’ the nation into war.”

The ‘lie” Bray thinks he sees is that while campaigning for president in in 1860, and early in his presidency, Lincoln tried to end the secession crisis by assuring the South that he had no intention of abolishing slavery in the slave states. Indeed, it is clear he believed a president had no constitutional authority to do such a thing. In his first inaugural address he said,

I have no purpose, directly or indirectly, to interfere with the institution of slavery in the States where it exists. I believe I have no lawful right to do so, and I have no inclination to do so.

This had been his stated opinion for a long time before he considered running for president, in fact.

Since the Late Unpleasantness, generations of American idiots have discovered this and other Lincoln quotes about slavery in the slave states and jumped to the conclusion that Lincoln supported slavery. Years ago I spent a lot of time on civil war history usenet forums, and you could count on one or two such idiots popping by about once a week. However, in fact, Lincoln detested slavery. The most prominent plank of his 1860 platform — the one issue he ran on more than any other — was a promise to keep slavery from spreading into the federal territories. He didn’t think the constitution gave the federal government the power to abolish slavery in the slave states, but federal territories were another matter.

This was a huge issue in 1860, as most of the country west of the Mississippi River was still territory, and citizens north and south cared passionately about what kind of economy would take hold in the territories — free enterprise and capitalism, or slavery? Slavery killed free enterprise; before the war the South’s slave plantation-based economy remain locked in 18th-century agrarianism while the North had marched into the industrial revolution. Thus, the issue of whether Kansas would enter the Union as a free or slave state had sent the entire nation into a murderous rage.

Conventional wisdom of the time said that unless slavery could spread into the territories eventually it would die. For this reason, when the “free soiler” Lincoln became president, the southern plantation owners were certain that secession from the Union was necessary to protect their wealth. For the secessionist point of view on this matter, see the Declaration of Causes adopted by the secessionist convention of Mississippi, for example.

Several states had seceded before Lincoln was inaugurated. His first few weeks in office were taken up with trying to persuade other states to remain in the Union and with troops at Fort Sumter, who were running out of food because South Carolina refused to allow them to be re-supplied. Sumter was, note, a federal military reservation, not part of the state of South Carolina. But South Carolina claimed it. And when South Carolina fired on Fort Sumter, South Carolina started the war.

The South started the war. They’ve denied this lo these many years, but they started it, not Lincoln., They began the hostilities, not Lincoln. If anyone “lied” anybody into that war, it was the plantation owners, not Lincoln. Therefore, Lincoln neither lied the nation into war nor “truthed” it into war, as he didn’t started the bleeping war.

Let us go to back to Bray:

Lincoln repeatedly asserted that his aim was to prevent the spread of slavery, not eliminate it in the South. “I believe I have no lawful right to do so,” Goodwin quotes him as saying. Thus when he finally issued his Emancipation Proclamation two years into the war, freeing the slaves in the Confederate states, his Northern critics claimed that he had misled the country.

Regarding emancipation — as soon as the war started, abolitionists began calling on Lincoln to abolish slavery. But Lincoln resisted this idea at first. In fact, when Major General John Fremont emancipated slaves in Missouri in 1861, Lincoln countermanded the order and relieved Fremont of duty. Lincoln feared emancipation would cause Missouri to secede as well.

So why did Lincoln issue the Emancipation Proclamation, which emancipated slaves only in the seceded states, in September 1862? As I explained in more detail here, Lincoln realized emancipation could be a tool to help the war effort. It would swing British public opinion against the Confederacy, for example, and discourage the British government from sending military aid to the secessionists. It would also allow for recruiting former slaves to serve in the Union Army.

In August 1862 Lincoln wrote to Horace Greeley, who had been pressuring Bush Lincoln to emancipate the slaves,

My paramount object in this struggle is to save the Union, and is not either to save or to destroy slavery. If I could save the Union without freeing any slave I would do it, and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that. What I do about slavery, and the colored race, I do because I believe it helps to save the Union; and what I forbear, I forbear because I do not believe it would help to save the Union. I shall do less whenever I shall believe what I am doing hurts the cause, and I shall do more whenever I shall believe doing more will help the cause.

Lincoln did not change the purpose of the war from saving the Union to abolishing slavery. He changed his policy toward emancipation to support the goal of saving the Union. Yes, the proclamation pissed off a lot of racist white northerners. Some Union volunteers deserted and went home because of it. But it proved to be a brilliant tactical move; it really did prevent Britain from entering into an alliance with the Confederacy (a plan being pushed by British textile mill owners who needed southern cotton), and it added about 200,000 highly motivated recruits to the Union army and navy.

Bray continues to try to draw parallels between Iraq and the Civil War, calling the latter “A bloody and unnecessary war was being fought in a Utopian effort to bring the blessings of democracy to a people who had little experience with it.” Is he saying the southern states had little experience with democracy? Perhaps not, but they might disagree. As for the freedmen, in 1863 it had not yet been decided if they could become citizens. Historians are still arguing about whether Lincoln would have supported the 15th Amendment had he lived long enough to read it. Bringing “the blessings of democracy” to the freedmen remained a goal way down the priority list while Lincoln was alive.

Bray continues,

Oh, and by the way, where did this President get off claiming, as Lincoln did, that his implied powers as Commander in Chief allowed him to tinker with institutions, such as slavery, expressly acknowledged in the Constitution?

The express acknowledgment of slavery in the Constitution didn’t make it legal everywhere in the nation; only where state governments had made it legal. But the states in rebellion weren’t states any more, genius. They had seceded, remember? I don’t believe there is consensus whether the seceded states had reverted completely to the status of federal territories, but they were required to go through a process of re-admission to the Union after the war.

And not until 1865 did the administration get around to pushing for the 13th Amendment officially ending slavery.

I’m not sure what Bray’s point is — maybe that Lincoln was for slavery before he was against it — but the 13th Amendment wasn’t Lincoln’s baby. Republicans in Congress came up with it. Lincoln didn’t take an active role in the 13th Amendment until after it was passed by the Senate in 1864.

2. “Much of the pre-war intelligence was wrong.”

Bray isn’t talking about faked pre-war intelligence that the confederates had weapons of mass destruction, but the opinion held by most that the Civil War wouldn’t last long, and that the rebellion would be put down in a few weeks. If you spend much time with military history you notice this is a common theme; when wars are getting started, people nearly always underestimate how bloody they will be and how long they will last. That’s not always true, but it’s very often true. For example, lots of Confederates believed the yankees would give up quickly without much of a fight. They were wrong, too.

Bray’s point is way stupid, in other words.

Bray points out General George McClellan complained he hadn’t been given enough troops to do the job, an obvious dig at current complaints that more troops should have been sent to Iraq in 2003 to secure the occupation. However, history shows us that McClellan was an idiot. Once Lincoln found a general who knew how to fight — Ulysses S. Grant — he had plenty of troops to do the job. In Iraq, on the other hand, events have shown us clearly that the Pentagon civilian planners were wrong about the number of troops required.

3. “The civilian defense chief was detested as ‘brusque, domineering and unbearably unpleasant to work with.'”

Bray is referring to Secretary of War Edwin Stanton. Stanton was a snot, but he was a very smart snot who was good at his job. Rummy, on the other hand, is an incompetent snot.

4. “Civil liberties were abridged.”

Bray writes,

… Or suspending the writ of habeas corpus, perhaps the most fundamental bulwark of liberty in the Anglo-Saxon tradition?

Only much later did Lincoln seek congressional authorization for the suspension of habeas corpus, despite the Constitution’s explicit instruction that Congress must agree beforehand.

As I explained in more detail here, Lincoln made emergency use of a power given to Congress (to suspend habeas corpus) to deal with riots and unchecked lawlessness in some of the border states while Congress was not in session. The next time Congress came back into session (not “only much later”), Lincoln went to Congress, acknowledged this power rightfully belonged to Congress, and asked for their retroactive approval even while the Civil War was still heating up. Unlike Bush and his NSA spy program, he didn’t act in secret, nor did he declare he could ignore Congress entirely because there was a war on. I agree Lincoln’s suspension of habeas corpus is still controversial, but if Lincoln was wrong, then Bush is thrice wrong.

5. “And many embittered Democrats, claiming the war had been an utter failure, demanded that the administration bring the troops home.”

Support for the war waxed and waned during the four years it was fought. The most prominent opposition to the war came from the “copperheads,” or Peace Democrats. In those days, the Democratic Party was the party of right-wing conservatives and the Republican Party was much more liberal and progressive, a distinction generally lost on righties today. The copperheads were pro-slavery white supremacists who favored a negotiated settlement with the Confederacy that would have protected the peculiar institution. They were on the wrong side of history, which IMO is where Bray is now.

Bray’s effort, dumb as it is, might have been a respectable effort for a ten-year-old. But he looks older than that in his photo, so there’s no excuse for him.

See Bennet Kelly at Huffington Post for more reasons why Bray deserves to be laughed off the Web.

CBS Sixty Minutes

Tyler Drumheller, retired CIA officer, is on Sixty Minutes telling Ed Bradley that the Bushies didn’t really care what the intelligence community said about WMDs in Iraq. The policy, to invade Iraq, was set long before the invasion, and the Bushies only accepted intelligence that supported the policy. I don’t believe any new information was presented. But the segment seemed to me to be a good, succinct summation of the prewar intelligence / Joe Wilson / Niger uranium / forged documents / Scooter Libby intrigue.

Update: Apparently there’s some new information after all. Josh Marshall spoke to Tyler Drumheller and learned that Drumheller was interviewed three times by the Robb-Silverman Commission, yet his testimony is not reflected in the final report. And he was interviewed twice by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (the Roberts Committee) but not until after they released their summer 2004 report.

“He Made It Happen”

Speaking of presidential historyJonathan Alter compares Bush to FDR, and I thought this section particularly interesting —

Like Bush, FDR took an expansive view of presidential power. But he didn’t circumvent Congress, as Bush did on warrantless wire-tapping. On March 5, 1933, his first full day in office, Roosevelt toyed with giving a speech to the American Legion in which he essentially created a Mussolini-style private army to guard banks against violence. One draft had Roosevelt telling middle-age veterans, long since returned to private life, that “I reserve to myself the right to command you in any phase of the situation that now confronts us.”

When I saw this document in the Roosevelt Library, my eyes nearly popped out. This was dictator talk—a power grab. But FDR didn’t give that speech. Although establishment figures like the columnist Walter Lippmann urged Roosevelt to become a dictator (Mussolini was highly popular in the U.S. and the word, amazingly enough, had a positive connotation at the time), the new president decided to run everything past Congress—even the arrogant and ill-fated effort to “pack” the Supreme Court in 1937.

We are not facing a greater threat from foreign enemies now than the nation did then. Bush’s secrecy has a lot less to do with national security than with keeping his ass covered.

Roosevelt wasn’t big on excuse-making. Shortly after assuming office, he said he wanted a quarter of a million unemployed young “hobos” working in the forests by summer. Every cabinet member said it couldn’t be done. But because he understood the levers of power (partly from his experience in the Wilson administration, bureaucratic training that Bush lacks), he made it happen and the Civilian Conservation Corps changed the face of the country.

Had such competent leadership been present after 9/11, it’s a fair bet that it would not have taken more than four years for the FBI to fix its computers and for the government to secure ports and chemical plants against terrorism. FDR would have demanded it be done in, say, four months.

“He made it happen.” That’s what leaders do. They make stuff happen. They don’t make speeches and then retreat to the ranch and kinda hope it all works out somehow.

Where Bush has until now placed loyalty over performance, FDR put performance over loyalty. If aides didn’t do the job or keep him fully informed, he would freeze them out, even if—like Louis Howe (Roosevelt’s Rove), Ray Moley and Jim Farley—they had served him for years. And where Bush has often seen the war on terror as a chance for partisan advantage, FDR viewed World War II as a time to reach across party lines. He appointed Herbert Hoover’s secretary of state, Henry Stimson, his secretary of war, and the 1936 GOP candidate for vice president, Frank Knox, his navy secretary. He even brought his 1940 Republican opponent, Wendell Willkie, into the fold.

Bush is not much of a believer in accountability; FDR knew it could make him a more effective president. He held two press conferences a week and instead of shunning Congress’s oversight of Halliburton-style profiteering during the war, he put the main critic, Sen. Harry Truman, on the 1944 ticket.

Bush, on the other hand, doesn’t like to acknowledge that the Democratic Party exists. In fact, he can barely work with people in his own party, preferring to just dictate what he wants them to do.

Other differences — where Bush is stubbornly inflexible and seems to think a mind closed to change is a virtue, FDR “was so flexible that many Democrats tried to stop him from gaining the 1932 presidential nomination because they saw him as a straddler and flip-flopper on issues like the League of Nations and Prohibition. (Neither ‘wet’ nor ‘dry,’ he was a ‘damp.’)” Alter writes.

FDR sent Eleanor and others around the country so they could give him firsthand accounts of New Deal programs, so he could fix them. Bush seems to take no interest whatsoever in signature policies such as No Child Left Behind or Medicare drug benefits. Once a policy is shoved through Congress Bush washes his hands of it and expects the little people to somehow make it work.

FDR’s speeches helped unify the nation and calm peoples’ fear. Bush prefers to polarize the nation and stoke fear. This takes me to one other difference not mentioned in the Alter piece — especially through his fireside chats, FDR explained to the nation why he adopted his policies and how he expected them to work. You can listen to some of them here. Bush, on the other hand, doesn’t like to explain anything. He makes pie-in-the-sky pronouncements about “freedom,” or he has hissy fits and declares “I’m the decider,” but he rarely explains the steps he intends to take to reach a goal.

Here’s the most recent Bush radio address. It’s partly about military action in Iraq and Afghanistan, so you might compare it to this radio address given by FDR on July 48, 1943, on the war in Italy. Or since Bush also talked about job development, you might want to compare it to this talk from April 28, 1935, on FDR’s work relief program. Or just pick any FDR talk at random. I’m not going to point out how the talks differ; you’ll see it when you read them. Just read one, and then the other, and weep.

Der Fuehrer’s Face

Robert Kaplan writes in today’s WaPo (although without the links),

Perhaps the greatest security threat we face today is from a paranoid and resentful state leader, armed with biological or nuclear weapons and willing to make strategic use of stateless terrorists.

These old-fashioned bad guys often have uncertain popular support, but that does not make them easy to dislodge. We don’t live in a democratic world so much as in a world in the throes of a very messy democratic transition, so national elections combined with weak, easily politicized institutions produce a lethal mix — dictators armed with pseudo-democratic legitimacy. And they come in many shapes and forms.

Of course, there are the traditional dictatorships like that of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and North Korea’s Kim Jong Il, who have evoked the morbid, crushing tyrannies of antiquity, using personality cults to obliterate individual spirit and keep populations on a permanent war footing.

There are Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Iran, built on economic anger and religious resentment … There is the comic-opera, natural gas-rich regime of Saparmurad Niyazov in Turkmenistan, with his Disneyfied personality cult and slogans (“Halk, Watan, Turkmenbashi,” ghastly echo of “Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Fuhrer“) …

These categories are loose and overlapping. What they have in common is that the rulers can exploit the whole panoply of state power, without regard for the will of the people. …

…Because states are harder and more complex to rule now (the result of urbanization, rises in population and independent media), a strongman requires not only coercion but an energizing ideology to whip his supporters into a frenzy and keep opponents at bay.

Television also puts individual charisma at a premium. While advanced democracies in the West tend to produce bland, lowest-common-denominator leaders, less open electoral systems, in which a lot of muscle and thuggery is at work behind the scenes, have a greater likelihood of producing rabble-rousers.

Surely that can’t happen here!

Update: A variation from Billmon.

Witch Hunts

The war between the Bush Administration and the CIA continues. David Corn spotted this at the end of a Washington Post story on Mary McCarthy:

The White House also has recently barraged the agency with questions about the political affiliations of some of its senior intelligence officers, according to intelligence officials.

Hmm. Porter Goss, the news story says,

… personally oversaw the leak investigation that led to McCarthy’s dismissal, rather than asking the Justice Department to do it — as previous directors had requested in similar probes.

I wonder if Goss checked McCarthy’s political affiliations before he made her a target.

Even the agency’s employment policies have changed: Applicants are now asked more aggressively whether they have any friends in the news media, several agency employees said. And the hurdles to making public statements persist for those who have left: Former CIA agents report that the agency’s process for reviewing what they write about current events has recently become lengthier and more difficult.

If the Bushies had only been half as interested in catching Osama bin Laden as they are in gagging the CIA …

Speaking of McCarthy, head on over to Juan Cole’s place to play “All Right, Not All Right.” Example:

It IS all right for Bush campaign strategist Karl Rove to leak classified intelligence about the identity of Valerie Plame as an undercover CIA operative.

It is NOT all right for CIA employee Mary McCarthy to leak classified information and blow the whistle on secret torture prisons maintained by the US government in Eastern Europe.


Update:
See Glenn Greenwald, “Treason by Association” and “Eliminating all checks against lawbreaking.”