Super Tuesday

Tomorrow is Super Tuesday. Conventional wisdom says the Dem nomination will not be settled tomorrow. In fact, Chris Bowers says it could be that the nomination will be determined not by voters, but by super delegates.

Meanwhile, it’s possible John McCain will sew up the GOP nomination tomorrow. Rush Limbaugh’s head will explode.

According to the McClatchy campaign blog

It’s an understatement to say that conservatives are not happy that John McCain has emerged as the front-runner for the Republican nomination.

Radio talker Laura Ingraham today urged a platform fight to make sure McCain wouldn’t get his say on such issues as immigration or campaign finance regulation. Rush Limbaugh has said McCain’s nomination would turnoff so many conservatives it would destroy the Republican Party

Now, Human Events Online compares the early primary states that have launched McCain to the Axis of Evil in Iraq, Iran and Korea.

“The Republican Party has been hijacked,” says the article.

“Over the past month a new Axis of Evil has emerged – not one based in Damascus, Tehran or Pyongyang – but instead in Cedar Rapids, Charleston, South Carolina, Derry, New Hampshire and Boca Raton, Florida. It is the liberal and “independent” voters in these 4 states that have nearly completed a deed that makes Kim Jong Il envious -the near crippling of the American Electoral System.

“These four states have combined their native liberal populism with an imported liberal electorate and have forced the GOP to accept a nominee so distasteful that in more than one poll — the numbers of voters choosing not to vote and those choosing to vote third party actually exceed those who will hold their nose and vote for Maverick, War Hero, Amnesty Supporter, John McCain.”

Damn those voters.

Speaking of unhinged, Jim Nintzel writes at Salon

Right-wing talking heads, including Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Michelle Malkin, have been seething about McCain for months. Limbaugh warned in January that if McCain gets the GOP nomination, “it’s going to destroy the Republican Party, it’s going to change it forever, be the end of it. A lot of people aren’t going to vote.” …

… That kind of emotional reaction to McCain, if overheated, extends to plenty of other issues: [conservative activist Rob] Haney complains that the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance legislation “takes away freedom of speech as guaranteed in the Constitution.” He’s angry that McCain would support tackling global warming with “all those treaties that turn over our sovereignty to other countries.” And he argues that McCain “has been the darling of the press for years,” masking what he refers to as the senator’s secret liberal record. “It’s an unending litany of items that we find unacceptable in a Republican candidate who would represent Republican values,” Haney says.

In reality, McCain’s voting record in the Senate is by most measures conservative. The American Conservative Union has given him a lifetime ranking of 82 percent, although his 2006 ranking was 65 percent. Conversely, the liberal Americans for Democratic Action reports that McCain voted its way just 14 percent of the time between 2000 and 2006.

However,

… what McCain may need most to overcome the spat with GOP hard-liners is the rallying cry that would accompany a Democratic primary win by Hillary Clinton.

Tomorrow’s vote may or may not clarify the will of the electorate. Ain’t nothin’ gonna clarify the minds of wingnuts.

Announcement

The big news is that I was recently contracted to be the Guide to Buddhism at About.com. Today it’s official.

The Buddhism section has been without a Guide for about a year, so that part of the About.com site is pretty much dead in the water and rough around the edges. It will take me a few weeks to get it up to standards.

My plan at the moment is to blog politics here but to blog religion and spirituality there. Since I’ll be on probation for the next three months, and since About.com likes very short blog posts, I probably won’t be writing one of my signature 5,000 treatises there anytime soon. However, there is a forum I’ll be riding herd on, and as soon as the About.com techies get some glitches ironed out I’ll set up some new categories. Feel free to start threads on anything having to do with spirituality, though.

Blogroll Amnesty Day

Photobucket

I’m not entirely sure what this is about, but it’s Skippy’s idea. And you know I do whatever Skippy says.

In keeping with the spirit of the day, I want to give a shout out to some blogs on my blogroll that don’t get the attention they deserve. So, give it up for Philosopher’s Playground, the Grumpy Forrester, The 10,000 Things, Fallenmonk, Folkbum’s Rambles and Rants, and Ratiocination by our own Biggerbox.

And I’m adding a new blog: Badtux the Snarky Penguin. I love cute animals.

Generation Gap

As David von Drehle says, this is turning out to be the year of the youth vote.

If you want to feel old, just tell a group of teenagers today that you can remember a time when the Clintons were hip. There was this guy on TV, see, called Arsenio Hall, and Bill Clinton went on wearing sunglasses and playing a saxophone, and, well, no, it wasn’t on YouTube — this was before most people had heard of the Internet — oh, never mind. There’s nothing new, for today’s young people, about a Clinton replacing a Bush.

Claire McCaskill’s daughter, to take one newly eligible voter, was all of 2 years old when that happened the first time. The Gingrich revolution came during her pre-K years; impeachment was around second grade. In other words, no matter how many times Hillary Clinton intones the magic word of 2008 — change — it’s going to ring a bit hollow, because she is an eternal piece of their mental furniture.

Obama, by contrast, radiates the new. He doesn’t just talk about change; he looks like change. His person and his platform are virtually indistinguishable. Obama, like Tiger Woods and Angelina Jolie, has one of those faces that seem beamed from a postracial future, when everyone will have a permanent, noncarcinogenic tan. He has small kids and a low BMI. His voice rumbles with authority, but his ears stick out like Opie Taylor’s. His campaign is crawling with cool young people, and the candidate fits right in. We’ve yet to see Obama flustered or harried; instead, he gives off the enigmatic Zen confidence of the guy who is picked first for every game.

Being out of touch with Youth is something one gets used to after a while. I realized many years ago that, to youth, I am an alien in their world. I accept this. This is not a value judgment; it’s just how it is. In fact, I’ve reached the age at which the people who used to be the youth I was alien to are now becoming the new aliens to new youth. If that makes sense.

At The Guardian, Suzanne Goldenberg posts a video in which she talks to students at the University of Missouri, my alma mater. (None of the campus looked familiar. I think it was sacked by barbarians and rebuilt at least a couple of times since I was there.) The most intriguing point made by Goldenberg is that the earliest political memory of these young folks is the Ken Starr witch hunt of the Clintons. It seems to have left them with a revulsion to scorched-earth partisan warfare, which is one of the reasons they are flocking to Barack Obama.

Older people are more jaded, which is what happens to most of us who live past Youth. To paraphrase something someone said in an email, Obama’s “post-partisan” message works with Youth and not so much with DOFHs (i.e., DFHs who devolved into geezers) because we geezers lived through the political ugliness of the 1980s and 1990s, whereas younger voters either don’t comprehend how bad it was or believe that Obama can somehow bring it to an end.

I don’t think Obama can bring it to an end. However, all things that had a beginning will also have an end, including the whackjob Right’s dominance of politics. And I think what can end it, or at least chase it into the shadows for a couple of decades, is an overwhelming crush of public opinion against it. And if the young folks can lead us to that, good for them. I’ll follow.

I’ve been saying all along that the real task ahead of us is to heal the nation’s sick political culture. This will take a Really Big Movement, not just one leader. However, it would be good to have a leader who will allow himself to be led. As Tom Hayden says,

Are we the people we have been waiting for? Barack Obama is giving voice and space to an awakening beyond his wildest expectations, a social force that may lead him far beyond his modest policy agenda. Such movements in the past led the Kennedys and Franklin Roosevelt to achievements they never contemplated. (As Gandhi once said of India’s liberation movement, “There go my people. I must follow them, for I am their leader.”)

Truly great leaders are great because they transcend themselves and become the embodiment of the best ideals of the people. Lincoln, FDR and JFK, to a greater or lesser extent, achieved this. I don’t know if Obama has it or if he’s good at faking it. However, I do not believe Senator Clinton, for all her smarts and talent, is capable of leadership on that level. If she were, I think we would have seen it by now. Although she talks about change, what she’s really offering is her proven ability to finesse the status quo, not change it.

Lorenza Muñoz writes at the Los Angeles Times,

I don’t recall ever disagreeing with my mother politically.

Until now.

Our differences are so profound that we are tiptoeing around the subject, heeding the age-old advice never to discuss politics. It has gotten ugly. She calls me foolhardy, ignorant and a traitor to my gender. I tell her she is irrational, blind and stuck in the past.

I am an ardent Barack Obama backer. She is a passionate Hillary Clinton supporter. She is 67; I am 36.

It’s a fascinating piece. To the senior Muñoz, Senator Clinton embodies the struggles women of her generation faced. To the younger Muñoz, Senator Clinton embodies the struggles her mother’s generation faced but which are no longer relevant.

I’m closer to Mama’s age than to Daughter’s, but I spend enough time with younger feminist bloggers to understand that the way younger women see themselves and their sexuality and the Cause are pretty alien from the way I see these things. But I’ve learned to shut up about it. My kids are grown, and my biological clock stopped ticking sometime in the last millennium. At this point my biggest barriers are ageism and osteoarthritis. Feminism is not my fight any more. Young women have to deal with the world they inherited, not the one I grew up in, which is long gone. I can offer young women my support and encouragement, but not my advice.

Speaking of the good old days — I have long thought that one cannot understand the 1960s counterculture without understanding the 1950s. Looked at in a vacuum, the counterculture might seem frivolous and self-indulgent. But to me it was a healthy and natural reaction to the repression and hyper-conformity of the 1950s.

Similarly, the young folks may be gearing up to a kind of political counterculture, one that attempts to sweep away the toxic acrimony and pseudo-conservative insanity of the past couple of decades. They want freshness. They want a whole new political culture. Maybe they’re naive. But, folks, they’re right.

See also Katharine Mieszkowski, “Young Voters Are Stoked.”

Update: Let’s hear it from the young folks. See also Blogdiva.

Serious

Last night’s Dem debate was between two capable people who are serious about good government. This is a stark contrast to Republican debates. I don’t have much to add to Steve Benen‘s and Noam Scheiber‘s assessment of the debate. I will say only that I think it might have helped Obama more than Clinton. Voters got to see Obama’s policy wonk side, which revealed that he is more than a motivational speaker.

And if you watched the post-debate show on MSNBC, you were treated to John Amato of Crooks and Liars, who rocked.

After polling its members, Moveon has endorsed Sen. Obama for the Dem nomination.

I won’t predict how the votes will go Super Tuesday. Truly, this election cycle nobody knows anything. Before the primaries began, conventional wisdom was that the Dem nomination would be sewn up early (by Hillary Clinton) and the GOP nomination might be decided at the convention. Now it seems McCain is going to be the GOP nominee, but the Dem nomination will be up for grabs a little longer.

However, I do want to call your attention to some articles suggesting why the Big Mo’ is with Obama.

Laura Flanders at The Guardian find Obamania in Butte, Montana:

So can Obama’s magic move Butte? Before the morning was over, I was able to ask the question to a group of local activists. The Montana Human Rights Network was holding its annual Progressive Leadership Institute in the Finlen over the weekend, and two dozen local organisers gathered around to hear the speech in between workshops on running effective campaigns and running for local office.

“It’s not that he would change anything in Butte,” said Alan Peura, a city commissioner in Helena. “But he’s building momentum that we can use to make that change ourselves.”

Although John Edwards was by my survey probably the group’s favourite candidate, Obama roused them, not by his policy promises, but by the opening he presents for their work.

“At the very least, we’ll have four years of movement-building from the presidential bully pulpit, which is the polar opposite from what we’ve had,” chimed in Jason Wiener, a Missoula city councilman. …

… Ken Toole, one of the founders of the Network and a student of the conservative movement remembers how the right came to power. Gaining the White House wasn’t the last but rather the first stage of that process. “The best thing Obama could be is our Reagan,” said Toole. “Reagan didn’t deliver a whole lot in terms of policies, but he shifted the country’s direction.”

Even from Butte, it’s clear to organisers: Obama’s not the saviour: we are. He opens a door. We push.

Rosa Brooks, Los Angeles Times:

His endorsers are right to see Obama as their party’s best hope for 2008. Though skeptics contend that Obama lacks “experience,” this concern makes sense only if you think you have to be a Washington insider to be qualified to run for president. Obama began his career as a community organizer and civil rights attorney in Chicago — relevant background for someone who will have to deal with tough economic and social justice issues as president. He was elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996 and the U.S. Senate in 2004; in all, he’s spent 11 years being directly accountable to voters (that’s four more than Clinton).

Is that “enough” experience? Remember that if you never develop good judgment, racking up “experience” just tends to make you older, not necessarily smarter. Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld were “experienced,” and they brought us the Iraq war. Clinton, who’s billing herself as the “experienced” candidate, voted for that war.

Tom Hayden, The Nation:

One must choose a candidate based on the issues for which they stand, the spirit they invoke and the people they are able to mobilize. …

…I have been devastated by too many tragedies and betrayals over the past forty years to ever again deposit so much hope in any single individual, no matter how charismatic or brilliant. But today I see across the generational divide the spirit, excitement, energy and creativity of a new generation bidding to displace the old ways. Obama’s moment is their moment, and I pray that they succeed without the sufferings and betrayals my generation went through. There really is no comparison between the Obama generation and those who would come to power with Hillary Clinton, and I suspect she knows it. The people she would take into her administration may have been reformers and idealists in their youth, but they seem to seek now a return to their establishment positions of power. They are the sorts of people young Hillary Clinton herself would have scorned at Wellesley. If history is any guide, the new “best and brightest” of the Obama generation will unleash a new cycle of activism, reform and fresh thinking before they follow pragmatism to its dead end.

Many ordinary Americans will take a transformative step down the long road to the Rainbow Covenant if Obama wins. For at least a brief moment, people around the world–from the shantytowns to the sweatshops, even to the restless rich of the sixties generation–will look up from the treadmills of their shrunken lives to the possibilities of what life still might be. Environmental justice and global economic hope would dawn as possibilities.

Is Barack the one we have been waiting for? Or is it the other way around? Are we the people we have been waiting for? Barack Obama is giving voice and space to an awakening beyond his wildest expectations, a social force that may lead him far beyond his modest policy agenda. Such movements in the past led the Kennedys and Franklin Roosevelt to achievements they never contemplated. (As Gandhi once said of India’s liberation movement, “There go my people. I must follow them, for I am their leader.”)

We are in a precious moment where caution must yield to courage. It is better to fail at the quest for greatness than to accept our planet’s future as only a reliving of the past.

On the other hand, Gail Collins writes,

Some of the Democratic resistance to Obama’s magic comes from people who are wary of politicians who want to win their hearts. Every great candidate has golden moments when the campaign merges perfectly into the zeitgeist of the people. But sooner or later it passes, and you’re left with a tired, flawed human being making a pitch to crowds of slightly deflated citizens. One of Hillary’s selling points is that we’re pre-deflated. We’ve known her so well for so long.

See also: Richard Adams, “King or Queen?“; Thomas F. Schaller, “And Then There Were Two“; Jonathan Alter, “Why Caroline Backed Obama.”

They Tried It at Home

Yochi Dreazen reports for the Wall Street Journal that three young men in New Mexico tried out waterboarding to see if it is torture.

In a nutshell, these three guys were debating whether waterboarding is torture, and one of them suggested they try it out to see. So they filled a 2-liter Coke bottle with water, grabbed a small towel, and headed out to the desert. Then one guy was tied down while another guy poured water on his face. The third guy, I assume, made the video.

Mr. Larroque, who will move to Uganda in February to begin his Peace Corps work, says it was clear from the beginning that he would be the one waterboarded. Mr. Toulouse, who is studying psychology in Canada, didn’t want to be the subject. Mr. Gaspar, who works as a waiter in Albuquerque, participated reluctantly.

“I just didn’t like the idea of waterboarding my best friend,” Mr. Gaspar says. “It seemed a little outside the realm of Saturday-night antics.”

That left the question of where to do the waterboarding. Mr. Larroque, who wanted to film the experiment, proposed doing it in Mr. Gaspar’s house, where the lighting would be best. Mr. Gaspar vetoed the idea. “My fiancée would be a little unhappy with me if she found a huge puddle of water in the house with Jean-Pierre passed out next to it,” he recalls reasoning.

They all survived.