Local politics really is local, most of the time, and it’s perilous to draw conclusions about a local election when you’re watching from a distance. I’ve seen far-away pundits and hacks draw boneheaded conclusions about elections in my locality. Often, in a local or state election, there are things going on that have nothing to do with national issues.

That said, I think Mike Madden is right about incumbents being blamed for the economy. He is also right that Chris Christie ran in New Jersey as a moderate, not a movement conservative. There wasn’t a hint of guns, God or gays in Christie’s television ads; he talked only about taxes and the economy. He ran as a RINO, in other words. I think Corzine made a huge mistake by not emphasizing Christie’s past as a movement conservative wise guy.

Nate Silver says:

Obama approval was actually pretty strong in New Jersey, at 57 percent, but 27 percent of those who approved of Obama nevertheless voted for someone other than Corzine. This one really does appear to be mostly about Corzine being an unappealing candidate, as the Democrats look like they’ll lose just one or two seats in the state legislature in Trenton. Corzine compounded his problems by staying negative until the bitter end of the campaign rather than rounding out his portfolio after having closed the margin with Christie.

But that’s water under the bridge now. Good luck, New Jersey. You’ll need it.

I would love to talk to people who live in New York’s 23rd congressional district about why they think the district elected its first Democrat, probably ever. It wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of CD 23 voters were spooked away from voting for Hoffman by the wingnuts who showed up to campaign for him. Upstate New York may be more conservative than Manhattan, but neither is it Mississippi.

It is not always a good idea to bring in busloads of people from distant places to work local elections. The style of campaigning that works well in the deep South is a big turnoff to the damnyankees in these parts, and vice versa.

To the wingnuts, the real prize in NY 23 was defeating the moderate Republican Scozzafava. They believe they have taught the national GOP a lesson. However, the lesson the national GOP might really have learned is that the far right base cannot win elections. The Teabaggers threw everything they had at New York 23, and they lost to a Democrat.

“Will Republicans do Obama a big favor by nominating a crop of Hoffmans for 2010?” Josh Marshall asks. We’ll see.

It’s been about ten years since I’ve lived in New Jersey, although I see it frequently. I assume Jon Corzine’s defeat came about because New Jersey voters were unhappy with him. However, I think the people of New Jersey possibly don’t understand how far right Christie is. New Jersey has had Republican governors in recent memory, but not crazy hard-right ideological Republican governors. New Jersey likes governors who cut taxes, but if Christie pushes a hard-right social agenda, he will be a one-term governor.

Bloomberg narrowly was re-elected mayor of New York. I’m surprised the vote was a close as it seems to be; the other candidate ran a weak campaign, I thought.

I’m not going to wait up for the New York 23 or Maine “gay marriage” results. Those will take a while, I suspect.

The weekend polling for New York’s 23rd district congressional race is, um, inconsistent. Hoffman is ahead by either a landslide or a hair. One poll says independents favor Hoffman, 52-30; another says independents favor Owens, 43-37.

Nate Silver says there are a large number of unpollable factors that could push the race either way. “Not only will I not be surprised if either Democrat Bill Owens or Conservative Doug Hoffman wins on Tuesday — I will not be surprised if one of them wins by a substantial, possibly even double-digit margin,” he says.

But see also this chart on who is contributing to what candidate in NY-23. Owens is getting campaign money from contributors within the district; Hoffman is not. Interesting.

The New Jersey Corzine-Christie race is supposed to be too close to call. Nate Silver says he has a “relatively clear answer” for New Jersey, but as of this writing he hasn’t said what it is. Stay tuned.

This is fun — Scozzafava is telling her supporters to vote for the Democrat, Owens, instead of the wingnut, Hoffman. The Watertown Daily Times has endorsed Owens and says Hoffman would be bad for the district:

Mr. Hoffman is running as an ideologue. If he carries out his pledges on earmarks, taxation, labor law reform and other inflexible positions, Northern New York will suffer. This rural district depends on the federal government for an investment in Fort Drum and its soldiers, environmental protection of our international waterway and the Adirondack Park, and the livelihood of all our dairy farmers across the district, among other support. Our representative cannot be locked into rigid promises and policies that would jeopardize these critical sectors of our economy.

Frank Rich spoke to this also:

Last week it turned out that Hoffman’s prime attribute to the radical right — as a take-no-prisoners fiscal conservative — was bogus. In fact he’s on the finance committee of a hospital that happily helped itself to a $479,000 federal earmark. Then again, without the federal government largess that the tea party crowd so deplores, New York’s 23rd would be a Siberia of joblessness. The biggest local employer is the pork-dependent military base, Fort Drum.

Little Lulu says Rich is “spooked” and has the “heebie-jeebies” about “mainstream conservatives asserting themselves in the NY-23 congressional race.” “Mainstream conservatives” is, of course, a euphemism for “nuttier than a peanut farm.” But you can tell how “spooked” Rich is:

No matter what the results in that race on Tuesday, the Republicans are the sure losers. This could be a gift that keeps on giving to the Democrats through 2010, and perhaps beyond.

Yeah, Rich is quaking in his boots.

I don’t know who’s going to win that election, but I predict that if Hoffman wins the emboldened tea partiers will embark on the bloodiest purge since Robespierre and the Reign of Terror. If Owens wins, after a period of self-indulgent whining the tea partiers will identify some scapegoats and then will embark on the bloodiest purge since Robespierre and the Reign of Terror.

Don’t forget the popcorn.

The bombshell news this afternoon is that Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has withdrawn from the New York 23rd district congressional race, which makes the teabagger candidate, Doug Hoffman, the favorite. Conventional wisdom said she and Hoffman were splitting the Republican vote and possibly giving the district to the Democrat, Bill Owens. With Scozzafava gone, conventional wisdom says Hoffman ought to be a clear winner. “Republicans catch a big break” says Chuck Todd.

Nate Silver argues that the picture is murkier, and that Scozzafava supporters may not move toward Hoffman.

The reality is that a lot of Scozzafava’s ex-supporters, many of whom don’t like either Hoffman or Owens, simply won’t vote. And some of them will still wind up casting their ballots for Scozzafava undaunted, as she’ll still appear on the ballot and may have made herself something of a sympathetic figure. … only 15 percent of Scozzafava’s voters had a favorable view of Hoffman, so they aren’t going to come over easily, if at all.

Hoffman would still have to be considered the likely winner, Nate says, but it’s likely to be closer than people think.

In an earlier post, Nate said that the polls suggested much of Hoffman’s support was coming from people who don’t normally vote, and since special elections tend to be low turn-out affairs, Hoffman’s voters might be more motivated to turn out on Tuesday — it’s for the teabagging cause, after all. I don’t know the district at all, so I’m making no predictions about the outcome.

I will say, however, that this shows us how much Republican party officials have lost control of their own party.

The New Jersey governor’s race between Corzine and Christie is messy, also. The closeness of the race, IMO, reflects general disappointment with Corzine. But Christie may be too right-wing for the state as a whole. Parts of New Jersey are quite conservative, but the more populated counties hugging the northeastern part of the state — the ones closest to Manhattan — don’t like extreme right-wingers. Those counties will elect Republicans who can pass themselves off as being reasonably moderate, but in a choice between a right-winger and just about any sort of Democrat they will vote for the Democrat. Anything is possible, but I will be surprised if Corzine loses.

It says something that I didn’t have to create a new “snake in the grass” image for Creepy Joe. I created one last year.

Lots of venting today, from the sarcastic (“In Defense of Joe Lieberman“), to the more sarcastic (“Surprise! Lieberman Stabs Dems in the Back!“) to the straight reporting — see Timothy Noah, “Did Lieberman Just Kill the Public Option?“:

Ezra Klein of Washingtonpost.com and Jonathan Chait of the New Republic both point out that Lieberman’s reason for opposing the public option—that it’s too expensive—makes no sense, because the public option actually lowers the cost of health reform by exerting downward competitive pressure on the private-insurance premiums whose purchase the government would subsidize. The Congressional Budget Office’s scoring of the Reid proposal is expected to show this. But any illogic in Lieberman’s position strikes me as evidence not that Lieberman is likely to change his mind when he becomes better acquainted with the facts but, rather, that Lieberman has already decided facts shouldn’t get in the way of his opposition.

Why would Lieberman want to sink health reform? Klein points out that in the pretty recent past, Lieberman has supported the general goal, if not the specifics, of Obamacare. But consider Lieberman’s political situation. He is no longer a Democrat. That means he no longer has a political base. In the future, he will have to rely more on constituencies and on cash. The White House suggests that Lieberman wouldn’t dare alienate voters by opposing health reform. But what’s the most cash-rich constituency in the Nutmeg State? The insurance industry, which is headquartered in Connecticut and employs 64,000 people.

Pretty much sums it up. See also “Is Anybody Still Surprised by Joe Lieberman?”

I don’t expect Lieberman to back down under any circumstances.

Alex Koppelman says that Joe Lieberman’s decision to join the filibuster of the public option all but kills the legislation. I am very angry.