I can’t tell from current polling if Herman Cain’s recent un-conservative statements on abortion have hurt him in the polls. He has since flip-flopped with a vengeance, but even his flip-flops are inconsistent. If this quote is correct —

“I would not sign any legislation that in any way allowed the government to be involved in it,” he said. “I would strengthen all of our current laws that prevent abortion. I believe that abortion should be clearly stated and illegal across this country and I would work to defund Planned Parenthood.”

— he’s saying that government should not be involved in abortion except to make it illegal. Very weird. I suspect abortion is not an issue that interests him personally, and he is still learning what he is supposed to say about it.

Bobbleheads keep predicting Cain’s imminent implosion, yet the collapse doesn’t come. Why not?

From what I’ve seen on Youtube videos, the man has an authoritative, sometimes even intimidating, presence. Even when he’s spouting nonsense — which is pretty much every time he moves his lips — one suspects he could snap his fingers and call forth a cadre of associates ready to break your kneecaps. Better show some respect.

I suspect many people projected a similar quality onto Rick Perry — it takes balls to execute an innocent man, after all — but on television, Perry comes across as something of a bumbler. Plus, he’s “soft” on illegal immigration. Can’t have that.

Some of what Cain says that news media call “gaffes” aren’t gaffes at all. When he suggested building an electric fence with a potentially lethal jolt along the Mexican border, the bobbleheads were much distressed. But you know the baggers ate that up. And when Cain later said the remark was just a joke — yeah, that’s what Coulter says all the time, too. Nobody believes her, either.

Cain’s free-market, anti-government bona fides are pretty solid. He’s an “insider” among industry lobbyists. Cain played a leading role in killing President Clinton’s health care initiative back in 1994.

So, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cain stays near the top of the polls for a few more days or even weeks, no matter what comes out of his mouth about abortion or electric fences or anything else.

Herman Cain is now the runaway frontrunner in the GOP field, leaving many in the Establishment to conclude, grumpily, that Mitt Romney is the inevitable nominee.

That says something about Republicans, doesn’t it?

So will the Establishment knives come out for Cain now, or will they let him ride the wave for awhile? And if the latter, how long will “awhile” be?

New Hampshire is threatening to move its primary to this December, and South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada are in January. That’s really not a lot of time. If Cain takes any two of those, it’s going to be harder to bump him off later. If he takes three, the GOP may have a runaway train on its hands that it cannot stop.

So I’m betting they knives will come out in the next few days; possibly as early as next week.

They may be hoping he will self-destruct as Perry has, but I’m guessing Cain possibly has one or two more working brain cells than Perry. You can say the same thing about shrubbery, of course. But just a little smarts goes a long, long way on the Right, as long as it’s not overdone.

Steve Kornacki provides reasons why Cain can’t win the nomination, but at least two of those — that he says stupid things and his policy proposals are ridiculous — is true of every candidate in America with an R after his name. I think he is less likely to stumble under the front-runner spotlight than Perry stumbled, as long as he continues to pretend racism is no longer a problem in America.

His being African American is part of his appeal, I’m sure. Righties have reached a point in their intellectual evolution at which they understand that racism is bad, even if they aren’t sure what it is. Today, “That he’s a black man who eagerly absolves the GOP’s Obama-era base of any suspicion of racial animus may have something to do with his appeal,” Kornacki writes.

Kornacki looks at Cain’s recent debate performance:

How would he have handled a sharp follow-up on, say, his claim that Alan Greenspan is a good model for a future Fed chairman? Or his claim that he has “secret” appointees in mind for key positions but that he won’t reveal their identities? Cain gives the impression that he has a few basic talking points but that he’s winging it otherwise. That’s a recipe for disaster.

It’s only a recipe for disaster if the bobbleheads on Faux and flapping mouths like Rush Limbaugh say it’s a disaster; otherwise, the baggers will be fine with it. They don’t understand any of it, so as long as they sense a general agreement that what Cain says is reasonable, then it’s reasonable. And from what I can tell from a Google search, Rush seems to like Cain.

Dougerhead writes,

I think Republicans like Cain because they feel have some idea of what he is talking about. Anytime anyone says something slightly specific that wingers like, Cain will say “that’s in my 999 plan”. When things get boring during the debates, he just starts yelling about his 999 plan. And it’s a simple, retro, un-focus-grouped name.

Cain doesn’t get drawn into discussions of HPV or QEII or Uz-beki-beki-stan-stan-stan or stuff his audience doesn’t understand. He doesn’t fall asleep on stage like Gingrich and Perry. He’s the only guy avoiding both of these traps, and that’s why he’s winning in a lot of polls.

All he has to do is (1) not say anything about racism, except that it isn’t a problem; and (2) give no hint that he might have a twinge of compassion for anybody who isn’t as wealthy as he is, and he could ride a big enough wave to get him through the early primaries. The Establishment has got to be nervous.

If you’re a supporter of the GOP establishment, I’ve got good news and bad news. The good news is that Rick Perry came in second in today’s Florida Straw Poll, nearly tied with Mitt Romney at third place. The bad news is that the runaway winner was Herman Cain.

Cain, former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, was one of just three contenders who showed up to speak at the Saturday convention. He got a particularly enthusiastic reception, disputing the “rumor” that he couldn’t win the election and saying it was time to send “a problem-solver” rather than a politician to the White House. “Send Washington a message!” he said, bringing the crowd to its feet.

Listing crises on everything from the economy to moral values, he said he could “hit the target called fix-it.”

Yes, running a chain of pizza parlors is just like running a country. Just yell, and the employees will scamper around and bring those cheese suppliers to heel.

The straw poll is meaningless except as a test of momentum, I suppose, but the participants paid $175 each to attend a political event in Orlando called Presidency 5, hosted by the Florida GOP. And I assume some of the participants came from out of town. This crew didn’t just wander in off the streets, in other words. Most probably are active in Florida Republican politics.

In a field that might be called Mittens and the Seven Clowns, the base definitely prefers the clowns. Results:

Cain, 37%
Perry 15%
Romney 14%
Santorum, 11%
Paul, 10%
Gingrich, 9%
Huntsman, 2%
Bachmann, 2%

Bachmann’s falling off the map, it seems. Are these clowns going to take turns at front runner? Is T-Paw sorry he dropped out so soon?

Update: Someone with more time and patience than I have please explain to this pathetic boob what the word “racism” means. The concept seems to elude him.

Since Thursday night’s Republican presidential candidate debate, what passes for the GOP “intelligentsia” has been really, really down on Rick Perry. In fact, I haven’t heard anyone on the Right say anything positive about him for a couple of days.

So does this spell the end of his front runner status? Perry is campaigning hard to win the Florida straw poll being held today, and if he pulls it out we might see a whole lot of backtracking.

Nate Silver writes,

Mr. Perry’s Intrade contract has been bid down substantially since Thursday night’s debate. Going into the evening, bettors gave him roughly a 36 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination. Now, his odds are all the way down to 26 percent.

I understand that Mr. Perry had a poor evening on Thursday night. But that seems like an awfully strong reaction to it — probably an overreaction.

Nate points out that only a small part of eventual Republican primary voters watched the Thursday night debate, and also that Perry’s standing in the polls hasn’t changed significantly in several weeks. But the most telling thing was that while most of the rightie pundits agreed that Perry bombed in the debate, there was no consensus among them about who won.

Mr. Kristol, for instance, was so dismayed by the performance of Mr. Perry and the other candidates that he called for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to enter the race. Mr. Erickson said he thought Herman Cain performed well. Byron York of the Washington Examiner declared Rick Santorum to be the winner.

Seriously?

Nate thinks that unless and until the bobbleheads reach a consensus on who the front runner should be, and fall in line to support the anointed one, their influence on public opinion will be minimal. And everyone but Perry and Romney are polling in single digits.

My question is, are rank-and-file Republican primary voters paying any more attention to what the likes of Kristol, Erickson or York are saying than they are to the content of the debates themselves? Today’s straw poll might tell us something. Although the straw poll by itself may not mean much, if Perry shows he’s still got some Big Mo with the rank-and-file, you might see some genuine panic set in among the bobbleheads. They might even be spooked enough to fall in behind someone else they seem to universally loathe — Mitt Romney.

I’m just now catching up on news from last night’s GOP debate. Here’s a highlight: The baggers in the audience cheered at the suggestion that a 30-something man with no health insurance who needs medical care should just die already.

I will add that young and healthy people who could get health insurance but choose not to are a big reason health insurance is so expensive for the rest of us. However, if all clueless youth were to die off, we might soon be facing extinction. And there are millions of people who cannot get health insurance in this country through no fault of their own.

Dana Milbank writes that Rick Perry was revealed to be an empty suit. Spokespersons of the GOP establishment such as Jennifer Rubin and Byron York were critical of Perry’s performance. He doesn’t seems to have a grasp of the issues, they fume. Like that matters to the base.

Unions made Justice Prosser put his hands around Justice Bradley’s neck! John Hayward writes for Human Events —

It seems the Wisconsin Supreme Court provides a tense working environment, with no love lost between the liberal bloc headed by Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson and the more conservative justices. Prosser has accused Abrahamson and Bradley of being “masters at deliberately goading people into perhaps incautious statements,” and claims she successfully goaded him into calling her a “total bitch” on at least one occasion.

It’s disheartening to learn that a state Supreme Court is full of goading and bitching, instead of wisdom and scholarship, but as we have seen over the past year, Big Labor politics does not create a solemn environment for statecraft, especially when Big Labor is losing.

I’ve been withholding judgment on exactly what happened between the justices, but whenever any man says a woman made him assault her, verbally or physically, I am inclined to think he’s an abusive SOB who thinks he is entitled to shove women around.

Elsewhere — Michele Bachmann confuses John Wayne with John Wayne Gacy, but refuses to forgive Chris Wallace for asking her if she is a flake.

Sarah Palin is sniffing around in Iowa, pretending to be low key. I’m wondering if she’s trying to arrange to be declared a candidate by popular acclamation.

Haley Barbour announced yesterday that he will not be a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. Immediately some pundits cranked out columns about What It All Means. I’m with Nate Silver– Barbour was fairly irrelevant in the race for the GOP presidential nomination.

Barbour’s candidacy was taken seriously by the Republican establishment, but I just didn’t see him capturing any popular following, even among Republicans. Nate notes that Barbour has relatively low name recognition among voters, but even voters who know who he is showed little interest in voting for him. Nate continues,

Nor did Mr. Barbour have an obvious constituency within the party. Religious conservatives had more natural choices (Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum), as did Tea Party conservatives (Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich), Republican establishment voters (Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty), moderates (Mitch Daniels and Jon Huntsman) and marginally attached, low-information voters (Donald Trump and Sarah Palin.)

Mike Huckabee actually is looking stronger than any other GOP candidate in most polls I’ve seen these days. However, I understand Huckabee is not popular with the fiscal conservatives, and he doesn’t have much support within the establishment. What the GOP wants is a “serious” establishment candidate who also can capture the passionate devotion of the base, and right now I don’t think there is such a candidate.

From the Michigan Messenger:

The impoverished former industrial town of Benton Harbor has become a flashpoint in the controversy over the new law that allows the governor to appoint Emergency Managers with virtually unlimited authority over local governments.

On Thursday the state-appointed Emergency Manager Joe Harris used the expanded powers granted by the new law to issue an order banning the city commission from taking any action without his written permission.

Benton Harbor City Commissioner Juanita Henry says her constituents are angry and looking for help, but without the power to hold meetings the city commission can’t even provide an official venue for citizens to ask questions and get answers.

“They are using Benton Harbor as a test case,“ Henry said. “If they have disenfranchised the people so badly they just don’t respond to anything, they can do this all over the country.”

According to the article, Benton Harbor is home to the corporate headquarters of Whirlpool. However, the last manufacturing plant shut down earlier this year, and half the population lives below the poverty line. And the city is broke. Last year Gov. Jennifer Granholm approved a state takeover of the city’s finances because the city couldn’t make payroll. But this year, the new Gov. Rick Snyder and the Republican-controlled legislature passed a law that gives the emergency manager dictatorial powers. This is from the Michigan Messenger, March 11 —

Under the law whole cities or school districts could be eliminated without any public participation or oversight, and amendments designed to provide minimal safeguards and public involvement were voted down.

An amendment to require Emergency Managers to hold monthly public meetings to let people know how they are governing was rejected by Senate Republicans, along with proposals to cap Emergency Manager compensation and require that those appointed to run school districts have some background in education.

Back to the current situation — instead of trying to help Benton Harbor get back on its feet, it appears the state is determined to loot what’s left of it to benefit the corporate overlords. For example, a city park was privatized and is being turned into a luxury golf course.

Then the appointed city manager tried to cut the fire department. The city commission was able to stop that, but now the city commission has, in effect, been dissolved. So if you live in Benton Harbor and your house catches fire, maybe the Whirlpool executives at the golf course will send over a few buckets of ice cubes.

Detroit is also under Snyder martial law, and emergency manager Robert Bobb (do they call him Bob Bobb?) has just laid off all of the city’s teachers. All of them. Every one. E.D. Kain writes,

Bobb has said he will take advantage of the new Financial Martial Law known as Public Act 4 to “unilaterally modify” the district’s collective bargaining agreement with the Federation of Teachers.

Get this —

So who is Robert Bobb?

It turns out, he’s a recent graduate of the Broad Foundation’s Superintendent Academy. The Broad Foundation, along with the Kellogg Foundation, pays Bobb $145,000 a year on top of his $280,000 government salary. For those of you not familiar with Broad, it is one of the leading foundations promoting school choice and privatization across the country. One might almost think that paying a public official hundreds of thousands of dollars a year might amount to nothing short of bribery, especially given the very specific agenda of a foundation like the Broad Foundation. …

… This is nothing short of a coordinated effort between the billionaire foundations pushing school reform and Tea Party conservatives intent on slashing benefits and ending collective bargaining rights. Public schools are under assault by the forces of privatization, and public school teachers face benefit and salary cuts while the very rich are promised tax cuts. Similar efforts are underway in Florida and Wisconsin.

Basically, a bunch of Republicans took control of the legislature, voted themselves dictatorial powers, and now the state is being run by an oligarchy. And they’re doing it in the name of liberty.

On the plus side, the campaign to recall Gov. Snyder is underway.

Also in the Michigan Messenger — a Michigan state senator has introduced a budget proposal that would deny funds for new clothes for children in foster care. Instead, for their clothing allowance foster children will be given gift cards that can be used only in second-hand shops like Goodwill.

Elsewhere — rich people want you to take pity on them.