Not Going to End Well

Yesterday I linked to an Ezra Klein post that included data showing the rate of firearm ownership in the U.S. has been declining over the past several years. Specifically, the data showed the percentage of Americans who kept guns in their homes, which is 20 to 30 percent lower than it was in 1960, depending on which poll you go by.

But Mark Follman writes that the number of guns in the U.S.has increased much more than population growth.

America has long been heavily armed relative to other societies, and our arsenal keeps growing. A precise count isn’t possible because most guns in the United States aren’t registered and the government has scant ability to track them, thanks to a legislative landscape shaped by powerful pro-gun groups such as the National Rifle Association. But through a combination of national surveys and manufacturing and sales data, we know that the increase in firearms has far outpaced population growth. In 1995 there were an estimated 200 million guns in private hands. Today, there are around 300 million—about a 50 percent jump. The US population, now over 314 million, grew by about 20 percent in that period. At this rate, there will be a gun for every man, woman, and child before the decade ends.

This suggests to me that all these guns are being hoarded by a shrinking percentage of U.S. citizens. And what sorts of people are these?

John Cole writes about being stationed in Kuwait after Desert Storm:

So why am I telling you this? Because in the middle of one of the most dangerous regions in the world, even with clear Rules of Engagement, every time I went on gate duty, there was a piece of tape over my ammo clip on my M-16 and M1911 .45. Why? Because the most heavily armed military in the world did not want accidental shootings. If a situation arose, I would have to eject my ammo clip, remove the tape, and reinsert and work the action before I could fire.

This was in a combat zone. Yet I have spent the last two fucking days dealing with armchair commandos telling me they need unlimited firepower to be safe in… Connecticut.

If there are bigger pussies in the world than gun nuts, I don’t know who the fuck they are.

So we have a minority of citizens who are paranoid and armed. And as the number of mass shootings escalates, they constitute a bigger threat to most of us than the threats the minority arm themselves against. Threats that mostly exist in their own heads, I might add.

We’ve All Been Bullied Into Silence

A few days ago, sportscaster Bob Costas touched off a firestorm by saying that maybe Jovan Belcher and Kasandra Perkins would still be alive if handguns weren’t so easily available. Belcher was a starting linebacker for the Kansas City Chiefs who had shot and killed Ms. Belcher, the mother of his child, and himself.

The Belcher-Perkins tragedy raised a lot of issues worthy of debate, including the possibility that Belcher’s behavior might have been caused by football-related brain injury. But there was no debate, because as soon as Costas spoke he was subjected to howling outrage from the Right for even suggesting that guns might be a problem.

According to the code of Conservative Political Correctness, gun control is not a fit subject for discussion, never mind action. Any public figure who dares bring up the subject is slammed with relentless vilification. And as many have noted, whenever anyone links gun control to a mass shooting incident, the entire Right-Wing Noise Machine goes into overdrive about “politicizing” a tragedy. Like what they’re doing isn’t politicizing a tragedy.

I don’t blame Democratic politicians for going silent on gun control, because right-wing craziness has brought about several threats to the future of the United States and its citizens. We have been forced to pick fights to win enough elections to gain, or maintain, seats in the Senate and House. We have, in effect, decided that issues like saving Medicare and getting out of Iraq take precedence over gun control. Being silent on gun control was the price of a Senate majority, allowing red-state Democrats like Jon Tester and Claire McCaskill to win elections.

The Right has done such an effective job of drowning out any attempt to discuss gun control publicly it’s probable most of the public doesn’t understand gun laws and the absurd degree to which Republican lawmakers have worked to make guns easily available to people who shouldn’t have them, including people on terrorist watch lists. For example, just yesterday Michigan passed a law that will allow concealed carry in places like schools, churches, day-care centers, sports arenas and stadiums, hospitals, bars, and college campuses. Great timing there, sports.

Ezra Klein published a post yesterday that exploded many beloved myths about guns, including the myth that widespread gun ownership somehow decreases gun violence. But this is not new; in the past I’ve linked to data showing a strong correlation between high rates of gun ownership and high rates of gun fatalities in the U.S. And “stand your ground” laws have led to an increase in homicides.

But even today, all over the Web you can find wingnuts opining that being slaughtered in schools, malls, movie theaters, or wherever is the price we pay for “freedom.” These people have a weird definition of “freedom.”

One encouraging bit of data in Ezra’s post is that the percentage of Americans who own guns actually is declining. And recent polls say that about 75 percent of Americans think there should be some restrictions on gun ownership, in spite of the fact that we’re not allowed to discuss gun control.

One of the most encouraging aspects of the last election was the uncompromising support for women’s reproductive rights voiced by Democrats. It hasn’t been that long since Dems were telling each other to not bring up abortion unless asked, and if asked just say it should be safe, legal and rare. We’ve also seen a swift shift in public opinion in favor of marriage equality.

This tells us that sometimes, things do change.

Even as we’re hearing the usual nonsense about how the teachers had been disarmed by “gun free zone” laws, and God has been taken out of classrooms (and I say Mike Huckabee’s god is a pathetic weenie who doesn’t deserve worship, anyway), maybe we’ve finally reached a tipping point at which the public has had it up to here with the bullies screaming at them to shut up about gun control.

Another Day, Another Shooting

This time the carnage is outside the Empire State Building. The shooter has been identified as Jeffrey Johnson, 53. News stories report variously that Mr. Johnson was fired or laid off from his job either last week or last year, and he stalked and killed someone who was either his former boss or some other former co-worker.

The shooting took place this morning on the streets in the 5th Avenue/34th Street area, which means hundreds of people easily were within range of the shooter’s gun, said to be a .45-caliber semi-automatic handgun.

A construction worker alerted the NYPD, who seem to have arrived almost immediately. The cops and the shooter exchanged fire, and the shooter was killed. At least nine other people in the vincinity were wounded, but it sounds as if none of the wounds are life-threatening. It’s possible some of the wounds were from police bullets. It would be nearly impossible to fire a gun in that area and not hit somebody.

It’s a near certainty the shooter was carrying the gun illegally and probably bought it illegally as well. I’m interested in where he got it. I understand most of the illegal guns in New York City are bought legally in the South, usually Virginia, and then sold on the black market in NYC.

The New York Times is saying that Mr. Johnson had no criminal record, which makes him a law-abiding citizen. Well, until this morning.

Guns Are Making Us Less Free

So far, the aftermath of the Aurora tragedy has followed the usual trajectory. One difference is that I haven’t heard anyone suggest that if we had just posted the Ten Commandments in the movie theater, this tragedy would never have happened. Although maybe someone said that and I missed it.

I hear people carping about the TSA security procedures at airports. Well, just wait. In New York City it’s common to have to walk through a metal detector to enter many office buildings. Lots of schools have metal detectors now, I understand, as well as courthouses and other public buildings. If we keep going down this road, the day may come when people have to empty their pockets and go through a detector just to enter a mall or a movie theater.

The theory on the Right is that lots of guns in the hands of citizens protect our freedoms. Seems to me it’s turning us into a kind of bizarro police state, where our freedom to go where we want to go may be restricted for the sake of security. That’s freedom?

I take the President didn’t say a word about guns in his remarks on the shooting yesterday. The political reality is that guns have become the real third rail of politics. Whatever his personal beliefs are on gun control, President Obama doesn’t dare even mention guns, especially with an election looming. That’s freedom?

I’ve written before that the NRA is going around pushing whackjob state gun laws that are contrary to the will of the people in that state. But the state legislators don’t dare say no to the NRA. That’s freedom?

The fact is, there is a strong correlation between high rates of gun ownership and high rates of gun fatalities in the U.S. And “stand your ground” laws have led to an increase in homicides. That’s freedom?

In some parts of the country, such as New York City, most people don’t think it’s a good idea to let anyone carry a concealed weapon anywhere he wants. We don’t need shoot-outs on crowded subway cars, thanks much. But if the NRA had its way, concealed carry would be lawful in New York, and the people of New York wouldn’t have anything to say about it. And you might as well retire the metal detectors, because the NRA will see to it that people can lawfully carry concealed weapons anywhere they want. Our life or death will depend on the mental health of the people around us.

That’s freedom?

The fact is, more guns in circulation and fewer restrictions on guns purchases and carrying puts the public at a higher risk of gun violence, which little by little is causing us to rely on security measures that restrict our freedom of movement. Thanks loads, NRA.

Here’s a nice background article on the history of guns in America. Did you know that in the 19th century it was common for guns to be outlawed within city limits, and no one complained about their rights being violated?

From the NRA to George Zimmerman, via ALEC

Paul Krugman writes about a connection between FLorida’s “stand your ground” law and the infamous ALEC.

Specifically, language virtually identical to Florida’s law is featured in a template supplied to legislators in other states by the American Legislative Exchange Council, a corporate-backed organization that has managed to keep a low profile even as it exerts vast influence (only recently, thanks to yeoman work by the Center for Media and Democracy, has a clear picture of ALEC’s activities emerged). And if there is any silver lining to Trayvon Martin’s killing, it is that it might finally place a spotlight on what ALEC is doing to our society — and our democracy.

ALEC, of course, is also behind a lot of anti-union, anti-consumer protection and anti-environmental protection bills that have been popping up in state legislatures by the truckload. ALEC is funded by several big corporations — including Koch Industries — and interest groups. It invites state legislators and their families to all-expenses-paid “conferences” at luxury resorts, gives them the boilerplate of bills it wants to become law, and even coaches the saps how to sell the bills to constituents and other legislators. This accounts for a rash of nearly identical bills being introduced in many state legislatures at once. (See, for example, four ALEC bills vetoed by the governor of Minnesota last month.)

Krugman continues,

But where does the encouragement of vigilante (in)justice fit into this picture? In part it’s the same old story — the long-standing exploitation of public fears, especially those associated with racial tension, to promote a pro-corporate, pro-wealthy agenda. It’s neither an accident nor a surprise that the National Rifle Association and ALEC have been close allies all along.

And ALEC, even more than other movement-conservative organizations, is clearly playing a long game. Its legislative templates aren’t just about generating immediate benefits to the organization’s corporate sponsors; they’re about creating a political climate that will favor even more corporation-friendly legislation in the future.

Did I mention that ALEC has played a key role in promoting bills that make it hard for the poor and ethnic minorities to vote?

Do read all of Krugman’s column, because he provides a lot of details we all need to know, and I don’t want to re-run the whole column here. Just go read it.

Sorta kinda related — be sure to also read “The Outsourced Party

A Crazy Gun Law Too Far?

Last night Ed Schulz interviewed Dan Gelber, a former Florida state senator. Gelber had been in the Florida legislature when the “stand your ground” law passed; he was one of the few senators who voted against it. He said that during the legislative session he asked repeatedly for the name of a single person in Florida who had been unfairly prosecuted for defending himself. And no one could produce such a person.

In other words, there was no wrong that needed to be remedied by the “stand your ground” law. Nothing was broke that needed to be fixed. “The NRA is a victim of their [own] success in that they have won all the major battles and look for these fringe issues now” Gelber said. “This was a solution in search of a problem.”

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Gail Collins said essentially the same thing in a column a few days ago.

There is nothing so dangerous as a lobbying organization that’s running out of stuff to lobby about.

I am thinking in particular of the National Rifle Association. These people are really in desperate straits. The state legislatures are almost all in session, but some of them have already pushed the gun-owner-rights issue about as far as it can go. You can only legalize carrying a concealed weapon in church once.

This year, in search of new worlds to conquer — or at least to arm — a couple of states are giving serious attention to bills that would allow gun owners to carry their concealed weapons in places like day-care centers and school buses.

People, do you think there is a loud public outcry for more guns on school buses? I truly believe that this is all the product of a desperate N.R.A., trying to show its base that there are still lots of new battles to be won.

On the other hand, a few hours after videos of then-Gov. Jeb Bush signing and endorsing the “stand your ground” law popped up on TeeVee and the web, Jebbie endorsed Mittens for president. Coincidence?

For example, see the Ed Show again, about 53 seconds into this clip:

Heh. Anyway — Lately we’ve seen several examples of the Right pushing too far and getting smacked for it. Susan G. Komen for the Fail is still smarting from its recent public humiliation. Several scheduled events have been postponed or canceled, and several executives have resigned.

It may be awhile before we get a clear picture of how much Rush Limbaugh hurt himself with his Sandra Fluke rant, but the Right remains in denial about what happened and is unlikely to moderate its behavior in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, right-wing state legislatures continue to pass more and more ridiculously crazy anti-abortion laws, and in some place a backlash is well underway.

Political processes are broken and have failed to protect us from right-wing insanity, but it appears a lot of people are learning to fight back on their own. The Crazy may finally have exceeded its bounds.

Guns Don’t Kill People; Paranoid Whackjobs With Guns Kill People

Steve M has been blogging up a storm about the shooting of Trayvon Martin, but for now I just want to riff a bit on this post and also Jesse Taylor’s post on paranoia.

Over many, many years I’ve attempted to communicate to gun, um, enthusiasts. I do try to be fair. For example, I give the 2nd Amendment the same expansive interpretation I give the rest of the Bill of Rights. Sometimes liberals don’t want to hear this, but in fact the 2nd was assumed in early American history to protect an individual right (for white men, anyway) to own firearms, the militia clause notwithstanding.

I’m not really anti-gun. I grew up in a rural culture in which the menfolk would, from time to time, gather up dogs and rifles and go out to the woods to shoot forest creatures. The menfolk in my family rarely actually killed anything, as I remember. But the point is that I don’t faint away at the sight of a firearm, and I’m not opposed to people owning firearms.

However, I have big issues with the idea that anybody should be able to carry a concealed weapon anywhere he wants. And my issue is that a big chunk of humanity doesn’t have the sense God gave mushrooms. People who are frightened, panicked, startled, angry, drunk, stupid, or whatever, are not people I want to have “locked and loaded” in my neighborhood, thanks much.

And then there are the Fox News viewers who have been commenting on the Martin case. I assume most of these people are law-abiding citizens, meaning they’ve never been convicted of a crime. But how many of these hate-spewing bigots would you like carrying concealed weapons in your town?

In my conversations with Gun People I have seen over and over again that they divide humanity into two types of people – “criminals” and “law-abiding citizens.” And the latter, the LACs, are seen as noble and sensible people who would never, ever, shoot anyone who wasn’t a “criminal.” Gun People assume that the only reason we Not Gun People are nervous about guns is that we think that more “criminals” will get guns and use them to commit crimes.

But that has never been my concern. My concern is that a large part of the people I have met — pretty much all of them, actually — who are all fired up to carry guns wherever they want appear to have serious anger issues, if not outright paranoia. If I could vote on which people I would trust to carry a concealed weapon, it would not be them.

I’ve even communicated with whackjobs — sorry, but that’s what they are — who cannot understand why it’s a really, really bad idea to have loaded guns within reach when there are small children in the house. They thump their chests and say they will teach their kids to leave the guns alone, which tells me they have no actual hands-on experience raising children (even if they have children). Even “good” children do things they know they aren’t supposed to do. But the consequences of raiding the cookie jar or getting the handgun Dad keeps under the bed are quite a bit different.

Last week in Washington state three children were shot, and two died, because they got their hands on loaded guns adults kept for self-defense. In one case, a three-year-old shot himself in the head with a gun his father kept in his car. In another, a 7-year-old girl was shot and killed by a younger sibling, also with a loaded gun kept in the family van. In those cases, the adults were in compliance with all firearm laws, and no charges were filed.

If you’ve got small children, you go around putting caps on unused electric sockets and keep the Draino out of reach. Yet some people refuse to acknowledge that maybe a loaded gun is at least as dangerous to small children as Draino. Like I said, they lack the sense that God gave mushrooms.

And then there’s the National Rifle Association. Current leadership has whipped up paranoia among its members to keep those dues coming in. So potentially violent paranoids with guns — albeit who are not “criminals” — now have their own lobby. And Florida’s “stand your ground” law is the fruit of that. Jesse Taylor writes,

An expansive self-defense doctrine turns the expression of paranoid activity into a socially acceptable, excused form of vigilantism. Hunting down and murdering a teenager visiting his father because he “looked suspiciously at houses” and “walked slowly” – teenagers being known, of course, for their otherwise purposeful, focused strides – becomes a he said, he dead proposition. The paranoiac who fixates on black youth is protected, because feeding a certain form of majoritarian paranoia bears rather awesome political fruit.

The issue is not simply that a non-black man has a problem with the existence of young black men. It’s that the law in Florida is structured in such a way that the former can use the latter for target practice, and says nothing so long as one is afraid of 140-pound teenagers for the right reasons.

I’d like to point out one more wrinkle in Trayvon Martin’s case. The evidence we’ve heard about in news stories makes it clear that Zimmerman followed and confronted Martin, and that Martin had tried to get away from Zimmerman. Yet Zimmerman claims Martin assaulted him before he fired. I am skeptical, but let’s assume that’s true.

Didn’t the unarmed Martin have a right to “stand his ground” also? A much bigger man, a stranger, had been following him and then confronted him in a belligerent manner. Martin had even tried to get away, but failed. If it turns out that Martin did land a punch or a kick on Zimmerman before he was killed, didn’t he have a right to do that? Or does “self-defense” only apply to people with guns?

Today’s Stuff to Read

Fascinating study of “The Geography of Gun Deaths.” Someone compared the rate of gun-related deaths (from all causes, including accidents) among the states and looked for correlations with other factors. It’s not surprising that there is a positive correlation between states with high gun death rates and states that voted for McCain in 2008, but it’s a stronger correlation than I would have guessed. The other strongest factors are high poverty rates, an economy dominated by blue-collar jobs, and lower levels of college graduates.

See also Paul Krugman, “A Tale of Two Moralities.” Basically, he says a “return to civility” isn’t possible as long as we are so sharply divided over the basic nature of government. The best we can hope for at the moment is an agreement that “both violence and any language hinting at the acceptability of violence are out of bounds.” That used to be the norm, but I don’t see us returning to that norm anytime soon.

Elsewhere — “Gateway Pundit” Hoft et al. are trying to make a controversy over President Obama’s announcement that Rep. Giffords had opened her eyes. I’m serious.

Update: Some Israelis are trying to stop the opening of a Buddhist center in Israel, because they think Budhism is idolotry.

Conservatives and Guns

This is a follow up to The Irony of McDonald v. Chicago. One cannot post anything about firearms here on the Intertubes without some Second Amendment Uber Alles activist showing up to explain that eliminating firearm restrictions reduces gun violence. Well, take a look at this chart:

Crime Statistics > Firearms Death Rate per 100,000 (most recent) by state

The data is from 2002, so most recent trends may differ. I believe these are deaths of all types, including accidents and suicides. Just note that the top 20 states in gun fatalities (I’m not counting the District of Columbia, which is an anomaly in several different ways) are all solid red. The bottom 10 states are all blue or purple.

Differences in the amount of firearm violence from one place to another can have many causes beside differences in the law. One of the low-violence states, New Hampshire, has very lenient firearm purchase and possession laws, although I believe most of the other low-violence states lean more in the direction of restrictions. The high-violence states tend to be more rural than urban, but so are some of the low-violence states. I’m not seeing a clear correlation between poverty levels and gun violence at the state level, although you might see that at a city level. I assume that Alaska — the most trigger-happy state in the nation — is not being overrun by illegal immigrants from Mexico. So the only conclusion one can draw from this data, I believe, is that there is a strong tendency for more conservative states to have a higher rate of firearm fatalities. Make of that what you will.

Note to firearm “libertarians”: Be polite, argue from facts with links, and address only what is discussed in this post, or your comments will be deleted. See comment policy.

Update: From the Stuff That Ought to Be Obvious Department — this is from a UPI story from 2008

States with high rates of gun ownership have the highest firearm death rates, an analysis by a U.S. non-profit group found. …

…The five states with the highest per capita gun death rates — Louisiana, Alaska, Montana, Tennessee and Alabama — had a per capita gun death rate far exceeding the national per capita gun death rate of 10.32 per 100,000.

Louisiana had the highest rate of gun death, 19.04 per 100,000 and has household gun ownership of 45.6 percent. Alaska had a gun death rate 17.49 per 100,000 and household gun ownership of 60.6 percent. Montana had a gun death rate of 17.22 per 100,000 and 61.4 percent gun ownership.

Conversely, states with the lowest levels of gun ownership had the lowest levels of gun death rates.

Hawaii has a household gun ownership of 9.7 percent and a gun death rate of 2.20 per 100,000. Massachusetts has 12.8 percent rate of gun ownership and a gun death rate of 3.48 per 100,000. Rhode Island has a household gun ownership of 13.3 percent and a gun death rate of 3.63 per 100,000, the researchers said.

The Irony of McDonald v. Chicago

I defer to Scott Lemieux’s legal analysis of McDonald v. Chicago, the gun rights decision handed down by SCOTUS today. I’m not going to quote it here; just read the whole thing, and then come back.

From a liberal perspective, any act of SCOTUS that dismantles the 19th century Slaughterhouse decision and rules that the 14th Amendment applies to the states ain’t a bad thing. This is the same legal principle on which most of the great civil rights decisions of the 20th century were based. I believe most if not all of the decisions that have ever caused wingnuts to scream about the awfulness of liberal judicial activism were tied somehow to the 14th Amendment forcing states to observe the rights of U.S. citizens.

Brown v. Board of Education, which desegregated public schools, rested on the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment. Scott says the majority opinion in McDonald cites the due process clause of the 14th, which also is a critical part of Roe v. Wade and all of the cases that decided public schools should not be leading prayers in classrooms, such as Abington School District v. Schempp.

In other words, exactly the same part of the Constitution that allowed legal abortion and threw classroom prayers out of public schools has now been cited in a way that probably will overturn a whole lot of state and local gun control ordinances, and righties are dancing in the streets.

Given the Heller decision (see also this), I think McDonald is no big surprise. But while I appreciate the legal foundation of the decision the result — which will be to dismantle a lot of gun control ordinances, mostly in urban areas — worries me. And, frankly, I think it ought to worry the NRA as well.

Contrary to wingnut lore, there is not a huge public sentiment in favor of dismantling gun control laws. According to polls, recent and going back a few years, the enormous majority of the public either thinks gun control laws should be left as they are now (42 percent, according to an April CBS/New York Times poll), or made more strict (40 percent, same poll). So, per this poll, 82 percent of the public thinks gun control laws should be left as they are or made stricter, compared to 16 percent who want gun laws to be less strict. An October Gallup poll had nearly the same result.

It’s true that when the poll questions are framed in terms of gun rights rather than gun control, the numbers are somewhat more favorable to the NRA position. But I think this is the result of people reacting to the word “rights” — we’re always in favor of “rights” — without thinking through logical consequences. In other words, there are people who favor gun rights in the abstract, but they also want gun control in their neighborhoods.

And it is possible that if the NRA gets too aggressive about dismantling gun control laws, especially in large urban areas, the day may come when people start to think long and hard about amending the Second Amendment. That may be many years down the road, and I may not live to see it, but I think it could happen.

Update: Steve M on why the gun control war will never be over. And it isn’t because the gun control movement won’t quit. The gun control movement pretty much faded out of view several years ago, except in the fevered hallucinations of the NRA.

And that’s not just because they won’t consider America to be anything less than a fascist dictatorship until it’s as easy for virtually anyone to buy a gun in D.C., Chicago, or New York City as it is in, say, rural Mississippi. Even if the day comes when we have gun laws everywhere that are as loose as the loosest ones now (and I think that’s far more likely over the next couple of decades than ever passing any laws anywhere that actually tighten gun access), the gunners still won’t admit they’ve won.

They can’t. As I say here all the time, the belief that right-wingers are the perpetual victims of liberal fascism is a core element of their self-image. What’s more, believing this is what opens up wingers’ wallets and keeps groups like the NRA and Gun Owners of America — as well as every other right-wing organization that seeks small contributions — well funded and healthy.

In politics there is no hand so good it can’t be overplayed, I say.