The Daughter Effect

This Seattle Post-Intelligencer editorial needs more attention —

A new report posits what many fathers of daughters already know — that having a daughter can change a man’s political perspective on women’s issues. …

… Having a daughter is likely to literally bring such issues home, forcing lawmakers to view them in real, not abstract, terms. It always helps to put a human face on an issue. It would seem even more so when that face is your child’s.

It may, as well, make it easier to recognize that reproductive choices belong in the personal province of a woman and her family, not the state.

The report is called “Female Socialization: How Daughters Affect Their Legislator Fathers’ Voting on Women’s Issues,” and it was written by Ebonya Washington for the National Bureau of Economic Research and dated January 2006. It is available for download for a $5 fee at the NBER web site. Here is a summary. I also found what might be a preliminary version of the report in PDF format — “Female Socialization: How Daughters Affect Their Legislator Fathers’ Voting on Women’s Issues” by Ebonya Washington, Yale University, May 2005. It may not be exactly the same as the more recent NBER document, but it’s free.

Anyway, Washington looked at voting patterns in the 105th Congress and found that having daughters is a “positive and significant predictor” of how legislators vote on reproductive rights. I skimmed through the Yale version of the report and found these points:

1. The daughter effect is more pronounced in male legislators than in female legislators.

2. Although the daughter factor has some effect across all “gender gap” issues, it is most pronounced in the area of reproductive rights.

3. Point #2 is significant because public opinion polls on reproductive rights actually show less of a “gender gap” than some other issues, such as crime, defense, gay rights, and welfare spending. This suggests that fathers’ opinions are not changing just because they are exposed to their daughters’ points of view.

4. The older the daughter, the more pronounced is the daughter effect. It seems to grow over time.

You can glean more about factors and methodologies from the paper. There’s, like, tables and Greek letters and everything. The point is that the mere fact of having daughters, especially daughters approaching reproductive age, seems to have a statistically measurable impact on the way legislators, especially male legislators, vote regarding reproductive rights. (My skimming through the report didn’t tell me how big the daughter effect is; perhaps someone who understands statistical analysis could take a look and explain it. I would appreciate that muchly.)

I wrote recently that “whether one is pro-choice or anti-choice does not depend on whether one thinks embryos are human beings. It depends on whether one recognizes that women are human beings.” The study seems to corroborate this.

A Matter of Trust

Peter Baker writes in today’s Washington Post that Republicans in Congress are rebelling against the “Bush Policy Decision Process.”

“We simply want to participate and aren’t going to be PR flacks when they need us,” [Rep. Mark] Foley said. “We all have roles. We have oversight. When you can’t answer your constituents when they have legitimate questions . . . we can’t simply do it on trust.”

In the Bush Policy Decision Process, policy decisions are made within a tightly sealed bubble, and the only people allowed inside the bubble are those who can be trusted to support the President’s policy. (Exactly how decisions are made within an ensemble of sycophants is a mystery, but the few who have witnessed this stage of the process and talked about it to outsiders say that politics is the driving consideration.) Republicans in Congress play a purely supporting role (as PR flacks), unless it’s decided the policy will be kept secret. In that case, it appears they play no role at all.

On at least one occasion I can think of, congressional Republicans loyally flacked a White House policy even as the White House planned in secret to scuttle it. You’ll remember that in 2001 and early 2002, the Bush Administration fought against the formation of a Department of Homeland Security. This opposition pre-dated 9/11; various proposals for realigning national security bureaucracies, in particular the recommendations of the Hart-Rudman Commission, had been kneecapped by the Bush Administration as soon as it took over the White House.

After 9/11 the Bushies slapped together an Office of Homeland Security. This was preferred by the Bubble People because, as it was not cabinet level, its administrators would not be compelled to report to Congress. Republican legislators vigorously flacked for the Office and derided a bill sponsored by Dem Senator Joe Lieberman that would have created a cabinet-level DHS.

But in 2002 the White House began to worry the Democrats’ idea was getting traction with the public. Susan B. Glasser and Michael Grunwald wrote in the Washington Post (December 22, 2005),

On Capitol Hill, lawmakers in both parties were upset by Bush’s refusal to let Ridge testify as a presidential aide, and Lieberman’s bill to create a new department was gaining momentum. While many Republicans were leery about a vast new bureaucracy, they did not want to cede the homeland security issue to the Democrats.

“That was driving decisions,” one senior Ridge aide said.

In March 2002 White House chief of staff Andy Card and five other loyal and trusted White House aides, most of whom had no experience whatsoever with managing big bureaucracies or national security, began to meet secretly in the White House basement to draw up plans for the Department of Homeland Security. Republicans in Congress were kept in the dark; as far as they knew, the assignment to fight any DHS proposals was still operative.

Glasser and Grunwald wrote that when President Bush announced the new DHS proposal in June 2002,

On Capitol Hill, Bush’s allies were left tongue-tied by his abrupt shift. In late May the White House had pushed Republicans on the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee to oppose Lieberman’s bill. Now, Sen. Fred D. Thompson (R-Tenn.) told Lieberman: “I’ve been having a great time explaining my enthusiastic support for a proposition I voted against two weeks ago.”

But the driving consideration had been to take the DHS issue away from Democrats, not to join them. To achieve this end Karl Rove inserted a “poison pill” into the White House DHS plan — a provision that DHS employees be non-union. The Democrats, naturally, opposed the DHS plan because of the anti-union provision. The White House was then able to go to voters and say that Dems opposed the DHS proposal because were obstructionists who played politics with national security.

Mission accomplished. And the brilliant results were on display after Katrina — the DHS, which the Bush White House never took seriously, is such a convoluted mess it can’t find its own butt with both hands and a flashlight.

I bring up this story because it’s such a beautiful example of how the White House operates. The Bushies have a pathological distrust of anyone outside their very exclusive bubble. This distrust extends even to prominent Republicans who don’t happen to be long-time Bush family cronies. Congressional Republicans are jerked around, even played for fools. The Bushies got away with it because of Bush’s political power. As R.J. Eskow explained, “They’ve got the candy.”

But now that Bush’s once-untouchable popularity is tanking — maybe not. WaPo‘s Peter Baker writes,

The signs of GOP discontent have been building in the past few months. Dissident Republicans in Congress forced Bush to sign a measure banning torture of detainees despite his initial veto threat, blocked renewal of the USA Patriot Act until their civil liberties concerns were addressed and pressured the White House into accepting legislation on its secret eavesdropping program. By the time the port deal came to light, the uprising was no longer limited to dissidents. …

… The breakdown of the Republican consensus on national security both reflects and exacerbates Bush’s political weakness heading toward the midterm elections, according to party strategists. Even as Republicans abandoned him last year on domestic issues such as Social Security, Hurricane Katrina relief and Harriet Miers’s Supreme Court nomination, they had largely stuck by him on terrorism and other security issues.

Karl Rove, the president’s political guru and deputy chief of staff, has already signaled that he intends to use national security as the defining issue for the fall congressional campaigns, just as he did to great effect in 2002 and 2004. But with Bush’s numbers still falling, the Republicans who will be on the ballot have decided to define the security issue in their own way rather than defer to the president’s interpretation.

President Bush is taking a serious hit on the UAE port deal. I said yesterday that the way the deal was handled shows a breakdown in the Bush Policy Decision Process. As usual, congressional Republicans were kept in the dark. As with the DHS flipflop, congressional Republicans only learned about the port deal when it became news. But this time, for some reason, the standard packaging/marketing/smear campaign (see the flow chart) was not already prepared and ready to put into place. The Bushies came up with an on-the-fly smear (opponents to the deal are just racists), but they had no apparent packaging and marketing plan. This meant that when citizen opposition to the plan hit Congress, Republicans had no media cover from the VRWC echo chamber. Initially they were left naked and exposed, without so much as a fig leaf of a talking point to cover themselves. The attempts at packaging and marketing that have been made since have been ineffectual.

Of course, had our federal government been working the way it was supposed to, congressional leaders would have been kept in the loop as the deal was being negotiated. And they would have had a chance to ask questions and investigate possible security problems before the deal was made public. Then, assuming the deal is not risky, they would have been prepared to defend it. Back to Peter Baker:

James B. Steinberg, who was President Bill Clinton’s deputy national security adviser, said Bush “just overstepped” and alienated allies by not involving Congress in the matter.

“Even if you’re a Republican member of Congress, you don’t buy the exaggerated view of the unified executive theory, in which the only part of the Constitution that matters is Article II,” on presidential power, said Steinberg, now dean of the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. “If you want them to be in on the landing, you have to have people there for the takeoff.”

Syndicated columnist Marianne Means writes,

The Pentagon says the UAE is a strong military ally and can be relied on not to jeopardize U.S. interests.

But as a nation we are growing weary of the constant refrain by this administration’s leaders that no matter what they do, we should simply trust them. Once again, no congressional consultation or public discussion took place before a secret panel sealed the UAE-port deal. This familiar clandestine approach drives members of Congress crazy.

But the Bushies don’t trust anyone outside the bubble. Yesterday we got one more story (how many have there been so far? I’ve lost count) about foreign policy experts warning the Bush Administration of what could go wrong in Iraq, and the Bush Administration ignoring them. There’s an assumption in the White House that anything that didn’t originate in the heads of Dick, Condi, and Karl isn’t worth knowing. And after all that’s gone wrong, the Bush White House still seems to be operating on that assumption.

Further, after all that’s gone wrong, President Bush still seems to think he deserves the nation’s trust. Yesterday his “explanation” of the port deal was “If there was any doubt in my mind or people in my administration’s minds that our ports would be less secure or the American people in danger, this deal wouldn’t go forward.” In other words, trust me.

But he never explains the reasoning behind policies beyond glittering generalities and platitudes. Even his few attempts at “candor” end up being just calculated theatrics. Clearly, he doesn’t trust the American people enough to level with us. We’re just supposed to trust him.

Mr. President: We don’t.

(Cross-posted to The American Street)

Why Democrats Make Me Crazy

One of the few points that Right and Left agree on these days is that the Democratic Party is seriously screwed up. We disagree as to how and why it is screwed up, yes. But even the party’s most loyal supporters can be driven to despair by what passes for Dem Party leadership.

Robert Kuttner’s opinion piece in today’s Boston Globe illustrates a part of the problem. Kuttner quotes Harry Reid singing the praises of Senator Russ Feingold:

”An example of how people really appreciate your standing up for what you believe is Russ Feingold, the only person [in the Senate] to vote against the Patriot Act — the only person. The Republicans in 2004 spent tons of money going after him on that one issue, and it didn’t matter because people believed that Russ Feingold did it because he thought it was the right thing to do.”

How nice. But, Kuttner writes,

Now, the Patriot Act is about to be extended, with only the most trivial sops to civil liberties. And guess who is all alone, yet again?

Senator Russ Feingold.

When Democrats agreed to support an extension making only superficial changes, Feingold vowed to filibuster. On Thursday, the Senate voted to end debate. Exactly two other senators voted with Feingold. One was octogenarian Robert Byrd of West Virginia, who carries a copy of the Constitution around in his pocket. The other was the flinty former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont, the Senate’s lone independent.

Reid, who so admires Feingold’s courage, left Feingold all alone yet again.

This reminds me of what the Dems did with Congressman Jack Murtha. Murtha had the courage to stand up and present an alternative to the Bushie “stay the course” Iraq policy. Once the inevitable personal smears of Murtha, including slanders of his service record, picked up steam on the Right, it seems to me most Democrats retreated behind cover and left Murtha alone and exposed. This in spite of the fact that Murtha’s proposal polled well, as Chris Bowers explained at MyDD last month. Chris wrote,

People want to hear alternatives on Iraq, and they like what Murtha has proposed. Republicans would rather slander a veteran. If only we had an administration in charge of this country that was willing to listen to strong, pragmatic, and popular approaches to policy, rather than one that is hellbent on theory, ideology, and national division. If only we had a Democratic opposition that was willing to support strong, pragmatic, and popular ideas on troop deployment in Iraq when those ideas arise from within their own ranks. Right now, I don’t think we have either.

I’ve written before that the Dems in Washington are so snakebit by the VRWC that they won’t stand up for progressive policy proposals even when polls show strong popular support for those proposals. Makes me crazy, I tell you.

Feingold didn’t pay a political price for voting against the Patriot Act. “Indeed, last year, when John Kerry carried Wisconsin by a bare 12,000 votes, Feingold sailed to reelection by more than 330,000 votes,” Kuttner says.

So what are the Dems afraid of?

Kuttner continues,

What better moment to reign in Bush’s extra-constitutional power-grab than when the Patriot Act is up for review? But, no. That might seem ”un-Patriotic” (get it?). As Feingold declared,”If Democrats aren’t going to stand up to an executive who disdains the other branches of government and doesn’t worry about trampling on the rights of innocent Americans, what do we stand for?”

Good question. As Harry Reid correctly observes, Bush can wave the bloody shirt of 9/11 all he wants; voters don’t punish legislators such as Feingold who stand up for principle. One such principle, surely, is that this nation must remain a constitutional democracy. That notion is also good politics. It has been since 1789.

Feingold’s courage needs to be honored, not by celebrating him as a brave loner, but by following his leadership. Legislators of both parties need to preserve our liberties, despite ominous claims of permanent war and unchecked power. If not, God save the Republic.

I think a large part of the Dems’ problem is that too many influential Dems — Hillary Clinton comes to mind — won’t lead, won’t follow, and won’t get out of the way.

If you google for “what’s wrong with democrats” you are treated to a wealth of opinions. The answer is economic populism, says one. Or they need to have vision. They need think tanks like the righties’ think tanks. They need to pay attention to the base. They need to ignore the base. Whatever.

I’m thinking that Step One might be to learn to watch each others’ backs. Until they learn to do that, I’m not sure “vision” will help them much.

See also: Michael Grunwald, “In Defense of Finger-Pointing

Yeah, I Gotta Problem With That

I can’t help myself; sometimes I just have to take a peek at what the righties are up to. Part of my fascination with social pathology, I suppose. Anyway, after checking some rightie blogs for commentary on the Senate Judiciary Committee NSA hearings, I can report that the most compelling arguments put forth on the Right in defense of the programs are:

1. Democrats are helping the terrorists.
2. The President is right.
3. You gotta problem with that?

Truly, this controversy is less about security than it is about faith. I offer this example from Right Wing Nut House [emphasis added]:

AG Gonzalez acquitted himself well but was at a huge disadvantage. Because of the secrecy of the program, he was unable to reveal details that could have buttressed his case that the Administration’s warrantless interception of American citizen’s communications was inherently legal based on both exceptions to the FISA statute and the authority granted by the President by Congress when that body authorized the use of military force after 9/11.

Such a beautifully pure faith makes one want to weep. If only it weren’t so misplaced.

Not everyone on the Right is a true believer. Via Daou Report, there’s at least one rightie Doubting Thomas, The Lonewacko. See also “Conservative Scholars Argue Bush’s Wiretapping Is An Impeachable Offense” at Think Progress.

Chalres Babington of the Washington Post reports that “activists” of the right and the GOP are splintering on the NSA issue.

GOP lawmakers and political activists were nearly unanimous in backing Bush on his Supreme Court nominations

Um, are we forgetting the Harriet Miers flap?

and Iraq war policy, but they are divided on how to resolve the tension between two principles they hold dear: avoiding government intrusion into private lives, and combating terrorism. The rift became evident at yesterday’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing into the surveillance program, and it may reemerge at Thursday’s intelligence committee hearing.

Babington mentions Arlen Specter , Lindsey Graham, and the Cato Institute as among those breaking ranks with the Bush Administration. On the other hand …

Democrats making similar arguments [against the NSA program] have fallen under scathing attacks from some GOP lawmakers. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, put himself at odds with Specter last week after his panel questioned the director of national intelligence and the CIA director about the NSA program.

“I am concerned that some of my Democrat colleagues used this unique public forum to make clear that they believe the gravest threat we face is not Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda, but rather the president of the United States,” Roberts said.

The argument could be made. Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda can knock down buildings and kill people, but they can’t destroy the United States itself. The Bush Administration, on the other hand, is destroying our democratic institutions from the inside.

And the White House must be worried. Moonie Times auxiliary publication Insight says that Karl himself is making offers GOP politicians can’t refuse:

The White House has been twisting arms to ensure that no Republican member votes against President Bush in the Senate Judiciary Committee’s investigation of the administration’s unauthorized wiretapping.

Congressional sources said Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove has threatened to blacklist any Republican who votes against the president. The sources said the blacklist would mean a halt in any White House political or financial support of senators running for re-election in November.

Makes you wonder what they’re afraid of, huh?

Mr. Rove is leading the White House campaign to help the GOP in November’s congressional elections. The sources said the White House has offered to help loyalists with money and free publicity, such as appearances and photo-ops with the president.

Those deemed disloyal to Mr. Rove would appear on his blacklist. The sources said dozens of GOP members in the House and Senate are on that list.

So far, only a handful of GOP senators have questioned Mr. Rove’s tactics.

How much political capital does Bush really have, though? Some congresspersons facing re-election this year might think it smarter to establish some distance between themselves and the White House.

See also — Today at 2:10 EST Glenn Greenwald of Unclaimed Territory will be debating John Hinderaker of Power Tool on NPR’s “To the Point.”Should be good. Also recommended, Audio clip: Comments by Michael Isikoff at Newsweek.

Update:
See “What We Heard from the Attorney General” by Senator Russ Feingold at TPM Cafe.

And They Think We Should Vote for Them Because … ?

By now you’ve probably heard that the Gang of 14 scuttled the Alito filibuster. But I agree with Kos; we accomplished something amazing. “The Alito vote may have fizzled,” Kos writes, “but you better believe the Dem establishment knows we exist.”

So the next step is to get more Dems in Congress. But what about the Dems who caved today? They are: Akaka (HI), Baucus (MT), Bingaman (NM), Byrd (WV), Cantwell (WA), Carper (DE), Dorgan (ND), Inouye (HI), Johnson (SD), Kohl (WI), Landrieu (LA), Lieberman (CT), Lincoln (AR), Nelson (FL), Nelson (NE), Pryor (AR), Rockefeller (WV), Salazar (CO).

Some argue that red state senators like Landrieu need to walk carefully, but there’s no excuse for blue staters like Lieberman to be such a toady. That’s why Ned Lamont needs to win the Connecticult Democratic senatorial primary this year.

Short takes:

Via Steve M: Fox News reports:

A new provision tucked into the Patriot Act bill now before Congress would allow authorities to haul demonstrators at any “special event of national significance” away to jail on felony charges if they are caught breaching a security perimeter.

Sen. Arlen Specter , R-Pa., chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, sponsored the measure, which would extend the authority of the Secret Service to allow agents to arrest people who willingly or knowingly enter a restricted area at an event, even if the president or other official normally protected by the Secret Service isn’t in attendance at the time.

Rightie blogger Bruce Kesler says leftie bloggers are vulgar. Has this guy tuned in to the Rottweiller lately? And are wingers born with a hypocrisy gene, or what?

Jeanne d’Arc explains how to escape from Guantanamo: Be Osama bin Laden’s bodyguard. If you’re an innocent nobody locked up by mistake, however, be prepared to stay awhile.

Wes Clark endorses single payer. Yes!

Call Your Senators Now!

I just got an email from Moveon saying the Alito filibuster has begun. Frist is going to call for cloture on Monday. The Dems need to at least put up a fight.

I haven’t been able to reach my senators’ Washington offices — the lines are busy! — so I tried the local district offices (find your senators’ here). Those lines are busy, too. Then I sent faxes, which are probably stuck in a fax queue. I’m going to keep trying the phones. I suppose emails wouldn’t hurt.

Do what you can!

Update: Found this at Democrats.com (click for more): Continue reading

Filibuster?

This afternoon Sen. John Kerry has been trying to organize a filibuster against confirmation of Sam Alito. Kerry needs 41 votes. I just heard on CNN that Majority Leader Frist will call for cloture on Monday; Frist will need 60 votes.

According to CNN,

Nearly all 55 Republican senators have said they will vote for Alito. Only three Democrats — Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia and Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota — have said they will vote for the nominee.

Earlier Thursday, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana said she would oppose a filibuster.

Landrieu hasn’t said how she will vote, I don’t believe.

Bob Fertik at Democrats.com is sorting out which other Dems might be wobbly. Likely suspects:

Tom Carper
(DE)
Kent Conrad (ND)
Byron Dorgan (ND)
Blanche Lincoln (AR)
Mark Pryor (AR)
Daniel Inouye (HI)
Joseph I. Lieberman (CT)

Bob says Ken Salazar (CO) has spoken out against the filibuster, but we don’t know how he will vote.

Beside the Dems, three other Senators are on the fence as of this afternoon: Olympia Snowe of Maine, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Ted Stevens of Alaska have not yet announced support for Alito.

Bob says: “Use these toll free numbers to call the Capitol: 888-355-3588 or 888-818-6641. If you can’t get through, look up your Senator’s District Office number in your phone book or here.

Do it tomorrow! Final decisions will be made this weekend!