Economy in Meltdown?

When Paul Krugman begins a column this way, it does get your attention:

Will the U.S. financial system collapse today, or maybe over the next few days? I don’t think so — but I’m nowhere near certain. You see, Lehman Brothers, a major investment bank, is apparently about to go under. And nobody knows what will happen next.

People with online brokerage accounts probably put their sell orders in last night. This will not be a happy day at the New York Stock Exchange.

At the Agonist, there’s a discussion among some of the smartest people in the blogosphere about what’s happening with financial institutions. I recommend it. The consensus is that we’re unlikely to see a massive 1929-style stock market crash, followed by the second Great Depression. We are more likely to experience a series of dips and recoveries over the next few years, but overall the market will be drifting down, not up.

In any event, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the feds are shoving everything they’ve got under the markets to keep them propped up until after the November elections.

Expect all candidates to be spitting out the word “change” at machine-gun pace today. McCain and Palin will continue to talk about “cleaning up” Washington and, thereby, Wall Street. However, when McCain and Palin talk about “change” and “reform,” they are talking about cleaning up corruption, not changing the system. As I understand it, today’s crisis wasn’t caused primarily by corruption, in the sense of doing something illegal for personal gain. It was caused by the system.

The McCain-Palin campaign (or should that be Palin-McCain?) also opposes the very kind of “propping up” that the feds are doing. They’ve been calling the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac “spending the cookie jar.” The takeover is likely to cost the Treasury $100 billion to $300 billion. $300 billion is roughly equal to three years in Iraq War dollars.

Yes, this is seriously bad, but McCain-Palin are focusing on symptoms, not the disease. They continue to pledge allegiance to deregulation and Reaganomics.

Andrew Leonard writes at Salon:

Over the last three decades Wall Street sought, and received, a climate of deregulation and minimal oversight that allowed it to create new markets at will, permitted investment banks and commercial banks to commingle their activities, and exempted critical new innovative financial products from any meaningful government restraint.

Now, we are staring at the kind of mess you get when you give two-year-olds a few buckets of paint and tell the baby-sitter to take the day off. Clean-up is going to be a bitch.

“Last three decades” = rise of Reaganomics. Thanks so much, Ronnie. Note that the rise of Reaganomics to some extent preceeded Saint Ronald’s ascension to the presidency. To some extent the right-wing “deregulation uber alles” ideology was also promoted by the Carter Administration. Some of the deregulation that Saint Ronald gets “credit” for actually began under Carter. But Reagan accelerated it, big time. There’s some historical background here (scroll down a bit).

Short-term, the challenge to the Obama campaign is to get people to understand that we face a systemic crisis more than a crises of corruption, and that Palin-McCain’s “change” message is not about the kind of change that’s needed. People need to hear, over and over, that Palin-McCain’s economic policy proposals are no different from what George W. Bush has been doing. Long-term, the sad fact is that, thanks to Reaganomics, there will be no money to do much of the good stuff Obama wants to do.

Ike

Word is that Ike is a terrible storm.

Where is all the sincere Republican concern that was displayed over Gustav? Two weeks ago, as the Republican National Convention was about to begin, President Bush flew to Texas so he could be filmed strutting around in an emergency control center, pretending to be doing something.

Today, Bush stuck to his fundraising schedule.

Hardly anyone cares about what Bush does or doesn’t do any more. Even so, we may wake up tomorrow to a new landscape, geographically and politically.

May all beings in danger find sanctuary.

The Bush Ministry of Truth

The word disgust isn’t strong enough.

In a press conference today, a reporter asked White House Press Secretary Dana Perino about the administration’s ongoing efforts to find Osama bin Laden, calling him the “mastermind” of 9/11. Perino interrupted the reporter, claiming bin Laden was not the true “mastermind” of the attacks:

Q But Osama bin Laden is the one that — you keep talking about his lieutenants, and, yes, they are very important, but Osama bin Laden was the mastermind of 9/11 –

PERINO: No, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was the mastermind of 9/11, and he’s sitting in jail right now.

And we’ve always been at war with Eastasia. See also Cernig.

I’ve published my annual September 11 sermon on the other blog. It’s a bit dark; I seem to be in a dark place these days. If you’re tired of me rambling on about how awful things are, please do read this talk given by Zen teacher Taigen Leighton on October 6, 2001. He foresaw that the Bush Administration was about to lead us down a very wrong road.

Update: Larisa points out that the FBI’s most wanted listing for bin Laden doesn’t mention 9/11 at all.

The In Crowd

There’s a lot of excellent commentary about Sarah Palin’s speech on the Web today. A consensus is forming that the speech may have been great for the hall but didn’t reach out to the rest of America. For example, Steve Benen said,

Going into the speech, I expected Palin to try to connect to a mainstream audience, demonstrating competence, credibility, and readiness. She already enjoys the support of the GOP base; Palin has to work on convincing everyone else.

And yet, she (or, more accurately, the McCain campaign aides who wrote her speech) went in a different direction, aiming to shore up the party’s base even more. Instead of seriousness, Palin went for biting and sarcastic partisanship. Instead of presenting herself as a trustworthy leader, Palin proved herself an attack-dog ideologue. Instead of answering questions about readiness, she answered questions about who she hates and how much. Palin not only steered clear of the concerns of swing voters, she practically thumbed her nose at them.

What’s more, Palin did this with a strikingly dishonest speech, filled with the kind of obvious and transparent falsehoods that even half-way knowledgeable observers can debunk off the top of their heads. Palin didn’t just lie, she lied brazenly, as if to say, “I don’t care.”

I wrote in the last post why small-town Americans might not take to Palin as quickly as the GOP seems to assume they will. Probably some will, but some will be turned off by the “mean girl” persona.

Nate at FiveThirtyEight also has some good commentary on why Palin’s speech might have fallen flat with independents:

I think some of you are underestimating the percentage of voters for whom Sarah Palin lacks the standing to make this critique of Barack Obama. To many voters, she is either entirely unknown, or is known as an US Weekly caricature of a woman who eats mooseburgers and has a pregnant daughter. To change someone’s opinion, you have to do one of two things. Either, you have to be a trusted voice of authority, or you have to persuade them. Palin is not a trusted voice of authority — she’s much too new. But neither was this a persuasive speech. It was staccato, insistent, a little corny. It preached to the proverbial choir. It was also, as one of my commentors astutely noted, a speech written by a man and for a man, but delivered by a woman, which produces a certain amount of cognitive dissonance.

The story is that the speech was a generic vice-president speech written before the Palin announcement and then adapted for Palin. If true, I think that’s extremely weird.

This was a very small sample, but the independents on a Detroit Free Press panel were not impressed.

McCain is not a great orator, so expectations for his speech tonight are not high. Even so, what he does with this speech will be telling. In order to reach out to persuadable “swing” voters, IMO he needs to show he understands peoples’ economic concerns and has some idea what he’s going to do to address them. He needs also to persuade listeners that his administration would not be a copy of George Bush’s. I think some vague noises about “reform” and “change” are not going to do that; he needs to call out specifics.

If, on the other hand, he dedicates the bulk of his speech to what a great commander-in-chief he will make but provides little in the way of specific economic ideas, this will be a speech to the base, not the country. Yes, they need to energize the base, but they can’t win with just the base. Surely they know that.

Or maybe they just want to talk to themselves. They’re the only ones who like them.

___

I’m watching Howard Fineman on MSNBC. He’s pissed. GOP operatives are trying to intimidate the press into laying off reporting on Palin. He’s really pissed.

What Did I Miss?

Did anyone see Bush’s “speech” tonight? I understand it was kept to 8 minutes. They really don’t want him around, do they?

When I got home from Tuesday night chorus rehearsal they were showing a tribute to Reagan. How many years will it take for them to get past Reagan? I realize the Dems had a tribute to the Kennedys, but that’s because there was a Kennedy on the stage.

I watched Thompson with the sound off. He’s much better that way.

Looking at the conventioneers reminds me of the folks back home. All white.

Oo, Lieberman’s up. TV off.

Anyway, I’m going to break my own rule here and say something about the Palins and their pregnancies. Via Atrios, the National Enquirer is reporting that Sarah Palin was planning to marry Bristol off to her boyfriend right after the convention and then announce the pregnancy. But Bristol refused to go along with this plan, it says.

Has anyone asked Bristol if she wants to marry the kid she messed around with? Maybe she doesn’t. If so, that would tell me she has more sense than her whackjob mother. Who the hell outside of Arkansas marries off 17-year-olds these days, even if the girl is pregnant? They might as well pay for the wedding and divorce in one package deal. It would save both those children, and the baby, a lot of grief.

Right now I’m too tired to go through all the Palin family dramas that have turned up just today. The biggies: The Palin’s association with an extremist, anti-American secessionist movement; as governor, Palin slashed money for teen moms; just three months ago, Palin called the Iraq war a messianic affair in which the United States could do the will of the Lord.

Sarah Palin — the gift (to the Dems) that keeps on giving —

I’m beginning to think the “Eagleton Scenario” is possible. If … nay, when … Palin becomes too big a drag on the ticket, they could dump her and blame the evil liberal media and liberal bloggers for being mean.

Maybe we should lay off and encourage her to stay on the ticket.

POTUS Persona Non Grata

Be sure to read Sidney Blumenthal’s account of the cancellation of Bush’s speech last night. The McCain campaign used Gustave to shove Bush off the program, and Bush is pissed.

In order that Bush and Cheney not seem to have been humiliated, McCain cancelled the entire proceedings for the first evening.

Almost certainly, Bush had to cancel his planned speech while Gustav loomed. But the sources say he didn’t like the idea and felt pushed. Bush is described by sources as “furious” at McCain for being deprived of his last appearance before his party, which nominated him twice, as a sitting president. He believes he is being treated disrespectfully.

Unless he’s been canceled again, Bush is supposed to speak to the convention tonight via satellite. But he’s not on the schedule on the RNC web site.

President who?

Meanwhile, McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis, told the Washington Post,

“This election is not about issues,” said Davis. “This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates.”

Fascinating.

The RNC Begins

Apparently the GOP didn’t want the nation to get a close look at Cindy McCain. She was hustled on and off the stage in St. Paul very early in the evening, way not prime time. I could snark about her shiny gold suit, but that would be sexist.

MSNBC reports that police used tear gas on protesters at the RNC convention. So is Little Lulu covering this as tightly as she covered protests in Denver? Of course not.

However, Little Lulu does want us to leave Bristol Palin alone. I didn’t know anyone was bothering her. It’s her mother we’re bothering.

I called the last post “GOP Tries to Hide Behind Hurricane.” I’m thinking Gustav isn’t a big enough hurricane for them to hide behind. That could change; we’re not out of danger, especially from floods. But I think most of the nation is still disgusted about Katrina, and the GOP dog and pony show of concern about a less serious storm is just a reminder.

GOP Tries to Hide Behind Hurricane

I just flipped on the television and saw President Bush in some bunker in Texas, walking around shaking hands and congratulating everyone in the vicinity on the great job they were doing about Hurricane Gustav. It was a near-perfect replay of that wonderful moment on the Mississippi tarmac when Bush uttered his immortal line, “Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job.”

I heard one report say the President might address the nation tomorrow night about Gustav. There’s no question Gustav is a significant storm, but so far it’s not shaping up into another Katrina. That could change, of course. But I think the GOP might over-do the concern act. People haven’t forgotten Katrina. People understand there’s an election coming.

Hurricane Gustav presented the GOP with a perfect reason to keep the POTUS and VPOTUS out of St. Paul. Instead, the GOP is using the convention to put on a great show of concern. They are already raising money for hurricane “victims,” for example, assuming there are any. Maybe the money could be sent to Katrina victims still waiting for help.

Today McCain and running mate Sarah Palin are in Mississippi pretending to be Doing Something and getting their pictures taken. Oh, and McCain accused Obama of “playing politics” with the hurricane.

The lesson, children, is that if you’re going to be hit by a natural disaster during a Republican administration, be sure it’s close to election time. Otherwise, you are SOL.

Stuff to read —

Mother Jones, “John McCain’s Miserable Record on Hurricane Katrina

Paul Krugman, “John, Don’t Go

Mike Madden, “Bush, McCain and the GOP try to dodge Katrina 2.0

A Real Palin Pregnancy

Those of you who can’t STFU about the alleged faked Sarah Palin pregnancy, here’s a documented pregnancy you can obsess about. Reuters reports that Bristol Palin is pregnant now.

The 17-year-old daughter of the Republican vice-presidential candidate, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska, is pregnant, Palin said Monday in an announcement intended to knock down rumors by liberal bloggers that Palin faked her own pregnancy to cover up for her child.

Bristol Palin, one of Palin’s five children with her husband, Todd, is about five months pregnant and is going to keep the child and marry the father, the Palins said in a statement released by the campaign of Senator John McCain.

If Bristol is five months pregnant, she couldn’t very well have given birth four months ago. I hope we can let that rumor go now.

However, IMO the last thing a pregnant 17-year-old needs is a shotgun wedding.

Update: Here’s the MSNBC video —

Of course, maybe they’re faking Bristol’s pregnancy now so that they can deny … oh, never mind.

Update: Another report here.

No Way to Treat a Lady

Update: The Big Tent in more-liberal-than-thou mode:

I would add that Obama does not need to be arguing how important experience is. Let me also add that when Tim Kaine, who has exactly the same experience as Palin, was treated by the Media and the Dems as a serious and acceptable potential pick, it opens up charges of a double standard.

Let’s walk through this.

As Mayors

  • Kaine: Two terms as mayor of Richmond, Virginia, the capital of Virginia, population 197,790 per the 2000 census.
  • Palin: Two terms as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, population 5,469 per the 2000 census.

Other:

  • Kaine: Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, 2001-2004
  • Palin: Ethics Commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (while still mayor of Wasilla), 2004-2005

As Governor

  • Kaine: 2007, sworn in as governor of Virginia, population 7,642,884 per 2006 estimate
  • Palin: 2007, sworn in as governor of Alaska, population 670,053 per 2006 estimate

On most planets, this is not “exactly the same experience.”

As documented in the Karl Rove quote in the last post, Kaine wasn’t always treated as a “serious and acceptable potential pick.” I googled “tim kaine vice president experience” and came up with a number of pages with comments that questioned Kaine’s experience. And if he had been the veep pick, there would have been more such comments.

There’s a double standard, all right, and it says that women must be treated more softly and gently than men. We can’t point out her lack of experience, even though she lacks experience, because she’s a girl.

Back in my day, feminists campaigned to be treated equally. I guess I’m getting old.