I’ve been trying to keep track of what’s going on with the House budget bill. They’re voting on it now. I’m personally sweating this, as you know, because I’m personally screwed if I lose Medicaid benefits. The plan is to pass a massive bill that can get through the Senate via reconciliation, to avoid a filibuster. Assuming this bill passes I’m hearing that Senate Republicans have already said they want changes.
Well, it passed. This is frightening. Now let’s see what happens in the Senate.
A lot of these Republicans are in districts with a lot of Medicaid recipients. I guess they’re more afraid of Trump than of their voters. At the very least, they’ve given the Dems a great talking point — Republicans are cutting your health care to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy. Which is pretty much the truth. And of course it isn’t just Medicaid. I understand there are also cuts to Veteran’s benefits and food assistance. So they’re literally taking food out of the mouths of babies to give more money to the rich.
The faithful are not likely to hear the budget bill described that way on Fox News.
This just popped up in the New York Times:
The blueprint sets the contours for the legislation that House Republicans will now turn to writing. It puts a $4.5 trillion upper limit on the size of any tax cuts over the next 10 years, but does not dictate which taxes should be reduced, a complex and politically tricky question of its own that could take months to sort out.
It also calls for slashing $2 trillion in spending over the same period, without specifying which programs should be cut, though top Republicans have targeted Medicaid and food aid programs for poor Americans. And it directs increases of about $300 billion for border enforcement and defense programs.
So it sounds as if there’s a lot of detail still to be worked out before there are definite cuts.
From The Hill.
"The resolution directs the Energy and Commerce Committee — which has jurisdiction over Medicaid — to find at least $880 billion in cuts, a figure that some lawmakers said could not be reached without significant slashes to the social safety net program."
It goes to the Senate to be reconciled with their version. The House will have to vote on something very different, The concept of the Senate is very different, They want to pass two bills. The first, which is approved, would give Trump 340 Billion for deportation, energy?, and the military. The SECOND bill would specify budget cuts and the tax cuts. IMO, if the Senate wins the argument over which approach to take, it's certain Trump would get what he wants – a ton of money to chase migrants. It also kicks the can down the road to settle where the budget cuts would be, how much, and the exact parameters of the tax cuts.
Suppose the House Freedom Caucus plans to take their stand on the second bill. They seem to see two elements that have to balance out. The 340 billion in the first bill HAS to be balanced by equal reductions in spending. The "cost" of tax cuts has to be balanced by reductions in spending. No compromise.
Now, suppose "moderates" in the House in swing districts refuse excessive cuts to Medicaid because they are toast back home if they gore their constituents. And that's the definition of "excessive" – cuts deep enough to piss off GOP voters. That leaves one place to satisfy both – reduce the amount of the tax cuts. And I think Trump knows it. His loyalty is with the aristocrats but his power comes from the MAGA base. But it may be the only way to pass anything by reconciliation.
Yes, the Republican hard-liners voted to pass the House budget today.. Otherwise, they are stuck in a ditch. You can bet that Johnson promised BOTH groups that they would have the chance to vote against the final product if it does not meet their requirements. The Freedom Caucus and the "moderates" went along because they know they can kill a bad (by their definition) budget bill. It will be up to the negotiating teams to hammer out a solution. IMO, the only math that works – unbelievably – means the GOP in Congress has to screw the rich.