Interesting articles I’ve seen over the past few hours —
I recommend this piece by Greg Sargent at The New Republic. He makes an important point. Here’s just a bit:
In her rousing convention speech on Thursday, Harris offered many olive branches to right-leaning independents and Republican voters. She vowed toughness on immigration and crime. She promised to transcend the nation’s divisions. She vowed to govern for all Americans and transcend faction or party. She made numerous appeals to voters with decidedly right-leaning values.
But, in mulling what Harris means by all this, it’s crucial to appreciate what she did not do. Harris offered all this outreach to voters outside the core Democratic coalition without making serious concessions to the ideological preoccupations we associate with MAGA-style right-wing populism. There was no real accommodation with what might be called The World According to MAGA.
Instead, Harris treated Trumpism and the MAGA movement as forces that must be decisively repudiated—and unequivocally left behind.
The crew at the right-wing National Review were never in the tank for Trump, and now that they smell defeat they are to point to it. The original article is behind a paywall, but Raw Story provides some quotes:
“The GOP electoral coalition is the smaller, weaker coalition. It’s lost the popular vote seven out of nine times in my lifetime (I’m 36). It has lost the Electoral College three out of the last four cycles. Conservatives might not be very eager to hear this, but ‘We the People’ are mostly Democrats,” Wright continued.
Republicans can still win despite this, he added, but so far the only times that has happened is when they nominated outsiders — and Trump is now the last thing from an outsider you could imagine.
“Trump isn’t losing because Kamala Harris is being hyped by the press and fluffed up to kingdom come. He isn’t losing because the press is being unfair to him. He’s losing because he’s a weak, unpopular, undisciplined candidate running at the head of a weak, minority electoral coalition. That’s the truth, whether anyone wants to hear it or not,” Wright concluded.
This next article makes an interesting comparison between the two party conventions. The DNC’s stagecraft, signs, posters, chants, etc. were mostly all about America. The RNC’s were just about Trump. Audience signs and chants at the DNC were all about America. At the RNC, it was the Trump show.
And here’s one that says Trump’s “event” at the southern border this weekend featured a setion of wall that was built durng the Obama administration.
MONTEZUMA PASS, Ariz. — A brown ribbon carved a straight gash across a vast, flat desert basin, the only mark of human civilization visible on this wilderness. The partition charged up a steep hill in Montezuma Canyon, then suddenly stopped. Extra pieces lay in piles nearby, rusting monuments to an unfinished campaign promise.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump came here on Thursday to heap praise on the structure standing to his right — “the Rolls-Royce of walls,” he called it — and lament the unused segments lying to his left. Joining him there, Border Patrol union leader Paul A. Perez called the standing fence “Trump wall” and the idle parts “Kamala wall,” after his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Those labels were inaccurate. This section of 20-foot steel slats was actually built during the administration of President Barack Obama. Trump added the unfinished extension up the hillside, an engineering challenge that cost at least $35 million a mile. The unused panels of 30-foot beams were procured during the Trump administration and never erected
I understand chunks of Trump’s wall are not holding up well, so it’s understandable he chose a section that still looks nice.
We now know that each of the four nights of the Democratic convention had significantly higher ratings that the four nights of the Republican convention. As I keep saying, the days in which putting Trump on television is a guaranteed ratings boost are long over.
Stunning words from the National Review. Is Donald Trump so narcissistic that he thinks he can make it without that pool of artistic talent?
More later. That is beyond textbook level of narcissism. Hitler, Mussolini, F. Franko pale in hindsight. All of them had some artists in their support team.
*Ted Nugent only counts for those with an extreme gun fetish.
I understand Trump is going to ramp up his schedule. The summary I read for next week included a few photo-op appearances to make "comments." And one town-hall, which suggests to me a small highly vetted crowd and planted questions. This may turn out differently than I'm predicting but if I were a hired flack for Trump, I'd spend some money to whip up a crowd from somewhere to counter the low-energy vibe surrounding Trump. As Maha pointed out, Trump did an event at the border for the cameras with sections of wall as a backdrop. Not exciting, What I'm seeing is more of the same which may get Trump 30-second spots in the daily news cycle. If Harris continues to do huge events with excited crowds, the side-by-side will feed the narrative that the polls (I hope continue to) show.
The question is whether Trump can't DO a large event because his act is no longer working. OR is Trump gunshy about large crowds? OR is there a medical condition influencing Trump. There's still no explanation for Trump nodding off in his trial and his convention.
It may be a week before we see the full post-convention bump I expect. They're doing the polls now, I expect. But the real effect of the convention may be the enthusiasm of delegates who returned home convinced we can win if we get out the vote. Old fashioned knock-on-doors and phone bank. We may have the volunteers for it. I have my doubts that the GOP does. The GOP enthusiasm is a different flavor – they want to do voter intimidation, but the gorillas who want to do that won't spend time making calls to registered voters. IMO, voter intimidation won't be as effective as GOTV. We live in a time when everyone has a portable camera and can play on-the-spot newsman. Evidence that's quite admissible in federal court. They can't play rough and get away with it unless Trump wins.
There's some complaint that Harris, Democrats, and the DNC Convention were short on policy specifics. That's the pot calling the kettle black. Trump fakes it whenever he gets a policy question he doesn't understand. His cult does not want policy – they want the government to circumvent the law and deliver fascist reality. Trump's crimes and cheating is a huge part of his appeal. He compares himself to Capone and Hannibal Lecter. (I think his reverence to HL is a shout-out to his audience what he'd like to do to his enemies.) When Trump talks about world leaders who "respect" Trump, it's the tyrants he names. For a long time, I wondered when the GOP base would recognize what Trump is. They have and they did a long time ago – that's what they like.
Wonkish details are crucial as you negotiate and write a bill. I'm in the minority – I like the details and subtlety. The base is sold on Harris and the swing voters could care less about politics. They vote with their gonads. Once Harris gets elected, we have to keep after her about the issues and wonkish details. But the Democrats FINALLY figured out that details deliver no votes but they DO create targets for the GOP to shoot at. (GAWD, I hope the lesson sticks.)
Harris does take questions and she will do interviews. She needs to pound the press to ask the same questions of Trump that they ask her. Or admit that the MSM only expects real policy from Democrats and not Republicans. Sticky questions (like Gaza) need generic answers.
Like, we support Israel's right to exist. We expect the hostages to be released as a condition of advancing peace. We expect a cease-fire with the hostage release. We expect Israel to be a democracy. (Unsaid: And dump Netanyahu in the next election.) We are ready to assist in negotiations to advance a two-state solution. (Unspoken: With the new administration in Israel) Personally, I see a global boycott of Israel (like South Africa) can bring the Israeli government to the table. But Harris can't go there publicly, certainly not now. This is the kind of minefield the press and the GOP wants to drag Harris into because she's getting too far ahead. Harris does not have to be any more specific and wonkish on policy than Trump is.
Trump is doing an event in Bedminster, a fundraiser for the J6 insurrectionists. Harris and ALL the independent groups need to hang that around Trump's neck. But there's a reason he's going there. When all else fails, Trump wants to call for a violent insurrection to save him from prison. Which is what this is about for him.
After that, we have the first (and probably only) debate. I think JD will run from Walz if Trump bails on any more debates. This could unravel very fast for Trump.