The state of the Trump campaign:
I take it the big reveal in yesterday’s “press conference” in New Jersey was that Trump hasn’t been inside a grocery store in years, if ever.
here is trump finally noticing the visual aids he is suppose to be using to stick to his script: “I haven’t seen cheerios in a long time” pic.twitter.com/5DRyeeddB7
— Nicole LaFond (@Nicole_Lafond) August 15, 2024
At Bedminster he also brilliantly said that if Kamala Harris is president, “You’re all going to be thrown into a communist system … You’re going to be thrown into a system where everybody gets health care.”
See also “Trump blends falsehoods and exaggerations at rambling NJ press conference” from the Associated Press. At the Washington Post, Jennifer Rubin joins the growing chorus of media critics asking why Trump’s mental decline isn’t being reported.
Where does this leave Republicans? The MAGA party is caught in a gloom-and-doom loop, forced to run away from the radical Project 2025 plan, defend an increasingly irrational candidate and make excuses for its unlikable, inept nominee for vice president. One wonders when we will hear and see reports about “Republican panic!” or “Could Republicans dump Trump?” Let’s get real: That sort of coverage is reserved for Democrats. Alas, whatever horserace contest the media continues to present bears little resemblance to the jaw-dropping reality before our eyes.
The Trump campaign has another problem that I’ve read about here and there. See Bill Scher at Washington Monthly, who tells us Trump’s ground operation is failing to launch.
You may recall that two months ago for the Washington Monthly, I flagged that Donald’s Trump’s Get-Out-The-Vote Plan is Bonkers, as it relies heavily on outside groups, especially the far-right Turning Point network, despite its lack of campaign experience and dubious finances.
Furthermore, Trump forced out the former Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel at the urging of Turning Point’s leader Charlie Kirk to execute the plan. (As I said before, this looks like a scandal and Republicans should be outraged.)
And in this newsletter two weeks ago, I noted that Trump’s “you won’t have to vote anymore” riff, delivered at a Turning Point conference, was part of that GOTV plan—pressing irregular right-wing voters to show up this year.
Recent reporting from the Washington Post and The New York Times about Trump’s ground game has reinforced my view. …
… Many Republicans are not only worried about Trump’s misguided messaging, but also about his mismanaged turnout operation. On August 3, the Washington Post reported, “With fewer than 100 days before the election, local GOP officials in battleground states have raised alarms about the scant presence of Trump campaign field staff.”
“The Trump campaign’s shrunken in-house operation resulted from its takeover of the Republican National Committee in March,” noted the Post. The “RNC had been planning an extensive field program,” but an anonymous source told the Post that the detailed plans were “totally discarded” following the takeover.
As I understand it, Trump figured he could save money on the ground operation. Gotta pay all those lawyers, you know. Do read the whole article; lots of juicy bits. Elon Musk even gets involved. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is recruiting lots of volunteers to get out the vote.
On the Harris side there is some more good news:
An aggregate of polls modelled by the Washington Post shows that the US vice-president has become newly competitive in four southern Sun belt states that were previously leaning heavily towards Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president.
If the trend holds, it means Harris could eke out an electoral college victory either by winning those states – Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina – or, alternatively, by capturing three swing states in the midwestern Rust belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump, by contrast, would need to capture both groups of states to earn the 270 electoral college votes necessary to secure victory, according to the model.
So, while the race is still close, things definitely are looking up.
I also want to call your attention to a piece in the New York Times by Jamelle Bouie, Trump Has Opened the Pathway to Reform. The headline doesn’t exactly match the article. Bouie is reflecting on whether the Republican Party can be rehabilitated after Trump. In brief, Bouie writes that the GOP’s problem is that it has been able to stay in power and win elections without bothering to craft anything resembling a plan for governance that appeals to the majority of voters. Indeed, the only way to get ahead in today’s GOP is to become more and more crazy extreme Right. And even after Trump is gone they will have no incentive to change.
The United States will always have a conservative party, but American democracy needs that party to be committed to the maintenance of our democratic institutions. The only way to plot a path from here to there is to forcibly change the incentives within the Republican Party, which is to say, the only way to break the fever is to change the rules of the game. A more democratic American democracy — where majorities elect and majorities rule — would force the Republican Party to try, once again, to compete for national majorities.
Worth reading. No paywall.
Anyone who has ever worked for company or an institution knows, and those who are fortunate enough to be self-employed really know, that the survival of the institution is goal number one, the first priority, beyond even a mission statement (which is totally optional and perhaps counterproductive). Trump never worked for the republican party he just stole it or conned his way into total control of it. To him it is but an organization to be pillaged. He has the donor list and control of the funds or at least a loyal person does. Up until now everyone thought he knew goal number one. Now they wonder and they should. What good is what is left of the republican party without Trump? Worse yet is the other pressing question. What good is what's left of the republican party with Trump in the shape he is in?
There is no board of directors responsible for the shareholders, members, and donors. There are only Trump loyalists. They have loyalty to Trump as their first and only priority. They assume Trump is guided by a vision and understanding of how this all fits into goal number one. Anyone or any group of republicans who tries to intervene and save the republican party from Trump is up against these loyalists. They seem to block any chance of redemption. The organization is in a really tight spot.
I think Trump seems to understand in a twisted sort of a way. His view of the country being in trouble is a projection of the trouble and mess he is in with his family, his business, and the political party he controls. His problems, even if he owned up to them are overwhelming. His deteriorating skills and old habits are not up to it, but this problem too has to be externalized, someone else blamed. He again becomes more of the problem and little of the solution.
At least he rediscovered Cheerios in his journey. He has one thing to look forward to at least.
Those who inherit his mess will have quite the challenge. Not much to look forward to for them.
Very well said.
Back in March, Biden announced a joint FTC-DOJ task force to investigate price gouging. A couple of months ago, I recall that Biden threatened action against food producers and grocery chains. (before Biden dropped out). Biden talked about "shrinkflation" driving up costs for families.
Today, Harris is extending this more aggressively and pointed specifically at food prices. This should resonate with voters, at least the ones that eat. My perception is that prices are stuck way up, far beyond what my post-Covid pay increases offset. Some things have come down (bacon) but other staples like hamburger are luxury items. IMO, the "investigations" into gouging are not intended to go to litigation. It's supposed to cause major food chains to drop prices aggressively. Why? To not be the highest-priced outfit under the DOJ microscope. Let somebody else go to war for the right to shaft consumers. The advertising of being dragged to court to defend record- high-prices combined with record-high-profts will get you talked about. The DOJ does not have to win the case to win with consumers.
Trump gave 30 seconds to a display of grocery items with distorted high prices and no context. And no serious suggestion HOW to bring prices down. Unless you are a progressive willing to bring big business to court, there isn't any incentive for corporations NOT to gouge. Trump's been asked about his solution to the economy. He says, "Drill, baby, drill" and "Stop illegal immigration." He has also proposed tariffs, which will drive prices up. But Trump isn't offering any process to bring prices down. Biden was going there, Harris is now promising to go there even more aggressively than Joe. I hope this becomes a focal point in the debate(s).
I watched some of the "press conference" – some of the questions looked like plants to me. Trump had MAGA in attendance to cheer on cue. Nobody has noted that non-MAGA was not allowed to attend. Which is legal – Trump owns both venues where he has done "interviews." But if it's as staged as "The Apprentice", is it right to call it a "press conference"? It's a sham, a show but call Trump out for the fake theater.
Neither media event moved the needle for Trump, IMO. CNN and AP is calling Trump out for the volume of lies, most recycled from his rallies. Fact-checking is irritating Trump and ruining the show for him. I expect Trump to start singling out networks he will exclude for the crime of fact-checking. Hopefully, most networks will also decide to not cover future events if Trump tries to leash the press. Trump must know that he's got to reach undecided voters. That won't happen if everybody but the extreme right-wing refuses to cover live.
A somewhat unnoticed change in staffing is Trump bringing disgraced Cory Lendowski on board. (Lendowsky was accused -with witnesses – of accosting the wife of a major donor at a Las Vegas event.) But he's gonna tell the pros what to do with Trump and the results will be a train wreck. But Trump IS responding to the bad poll news by beefing up his staff with psychotic cheerleaders. Expect no remedial action – Trump will only hear advice to follow his instincts. I doubt Trump will prepare for the debate in September.
The walls are closing in on Trump. Legal stuff is "happening" and non of it's good for Trump. It's likely that Judge Chutkan will open hearings on the J6 trial in October. This puts Trump's involvement in trying to steal the last election on the front page just before the election. Sentencing for the NY criminal trial will be in September. It's unlikely Trump will be detained and it will go to appeal, but it will make the front page again. Next week is the convention – soon after the ABC debate. The weaker Trump looks, the harder it will be to get MAGA to turn our for the kind of rally that makes Trump look like the Alpha male he imagines he is.
"That is the power of democracy. Those looking for someone to save us from the authoritarian threat have found that power in themselves."
Jennifer Rubin – WaPo
Speaking of mental decline, Trump did an event yesterday in PA and addressed the crowd from NORTH CAROLINA. Yeah, it's on Youtube. So far the media isn't covering the error. But what if Biden had made the same gaffe?
They also aren't covering the fact that he was booed, lustily, at his own rally when he doubled down on his disrespectful attack line against veterans and teachers. That's on YouTube as well. If Harris had gotten booed at one of her rallies it would be the lead story for days.