I want to say something about campaign narratives. Campaign narratives are something like ongoing themes that campaign operatives and the news industry assign to political campaigns. Hillary Clinton’s emails are an example. People heard over and over about the emails. If you had stopped 20 people at random and asked them to explain the email issue, I’m betting maybe one out of the 20 actually understood it. Maybe. But people knew there was something scandalous about those emails.
This Chicago Sun Times article by a political reporter, Andy Shaw, defines the campaign narrative pretty well —
Covering politics for three decades left me with a lifetime of takeaways, but a compelling one that resurfaces more often than most, as we try to explain widespread public perceptions of politicians, is the importance of narrative.
It’s an overarching media-and-consultant-driven storyline that, for better or worse, defines, describes and tends to stick to candidates and elected officials like glue until the passage of time or a figurative solvent — an unanticipated major event — pries it loose.
Note that this was written after the debate disaster but before Joe Biden had dropped out of the race.
So now we get to President Joe Biden, whose narrative honed over a decades-long career characterized him as “Good ol’ Joe”— a solid, earnest, hail-fellow-well-met Democratic pol who endured several personal tragedies and survived multiple stumbles and bumbles on his uneven road to the White House. …
… Then came the devastating debate debacle, which entirely ripped off the narrative patch, leaving Biden gasping for air in shark-infested political waters as handlers rushed to the rescue and an increasing number of voters shrugged their shoulders in dismissive disinterest.
After the debate, IMO, there was no rehabilitating his campaign. I think now there’s no question his dropping out was the right thing to do. The new Harris-Walz campaign, along with adopting a “happy warrior” theme, also has quickly created the narrative that we are psychologically normal. Wholesome, even. But they are weird.
IMO “weird” is definitely sticking to J.D. Vance. And I don’t think he has it in him to rehabilitate his image. He is weird.
But I think Trump is in big danger of being tagged by news media as downright deranged. I could be wrong, of course. The press has been cutting him endless slack for several murky reasons, one of which was that until recently they were more focused on the old “Joe is old” narrative. But there’s just too much evidence bleeding into public view that Trump is not tethered to what we might call commonly experienced reality. The story behind the “chopper whopper” and his claims that his January 6 crowd size exceeded Dr. Martin Luther King’s when he gave his “I have a dream” speech were widely reported, for example. Now I’m seeing headlines like this — Trump baselessly charges Harris Michigan rally crowd ‘didn’t exist,’ was generated with AI. That’s getting reported all over the place this evening. Yes his supporters will believe him, but his supporters are too small a minority to elect him by themselves.
Do see Behind the Curtain: Inside Trump’s slump at Axios. It says his advisers can’t get him to stop flailing and meandering and stick to a disciplined campaign message. I take it he’s too angry, and probably too frightened, to listen. He has no discipline; he has no fortitude. And his con man’s instincts, which worked well for him in 2016, are failing him now. And as some of the major media outlets report on the flailing and babbling, and the sky doesn’t fall, they’ll realize it’s safe to keep reporting it.
Jeff Greenfield has a really good analysis at Politico headlined Trump’s Crucial Power Has Been Neutralized. In 2016 his power was that he was the change candidate running against Mrs. Status Quo Establishment. And he managed to not be so alarming or out of touch with reality to scare voters away. As I’ve said before, Trump got the last-minute “what the hell’ votes after James Comey released more news About Her Emails just days before the election.
But now Trump is out of control and babbling nonsense, and the Democrats have their act together. We’ve still got the Dem convention and the September 10 debate to look forward to, which gives Democrats more opportunity to drive their narrative home. Let’s hope.
Also, too: About the hack of Trump’s campaign servers, do see Marcy Wheeler.
Read today that Trump dumped 37 million into ad buys. Hitting PA and NC heavily, NV and AZ much less so. Trump is having a "conversation" on X tonight with Musk,, who has endorsed Trump. So that's not going to be anything but a circle jerk.
IMO, Trump has to get out on the trail in the battleground stares. He's committed (instead?) to ad buys as a method of combating the momentum from Harris doing large events. McCarthy begged Trump to stop that. It only emphasizes the truth that Harris is out there and Trump is not.
The convention starts in what, a week? Trump said he's waiting until after the convention – like Harris/Walz can be ignored out of existence. I think Trump may pretend that the Fox debate on Sept 4 was agreed to. (Because he said so.) Harris won't be sacrificed at a Trump rally. But I think Trump is terrified of facing Harris. For good reason.
Correction – A Truump superpac bought $100 million in ads. Not $30 million.
It looks like the hack got into Roger Stone's emails. Interesting.
The "responsible" press is not releasing the results of the hack. I'd expect the dump to go to the irresponsible press. Somebody went to a lot of trouble to embarrass Trump and I presume they have the goods.
The "conversation" between Trump and Musk seems to have been a bust. Musk is blaming outside forces. Firing all the technical people at Twitter may have been the cause. But it started 40 minutes late with a diminished audience, So sad.
Over at Steve M's place I just read the poor fool's version of his "assassination" attempt and realized that I saw that scene played by Sean Connery in the movie First Knight when Camelot was under attack.
What other fantasies await us? Maybe he's Tom Cruise on a motorcycle.
You bet he lost the narrative, and his mojo. No more is there an aura, a rush to hear what Trump is saying about anything. His distortions have taken on a repetitious and boring quality less and less want to hear. It is just more and more of the same old same old that are totally overplayed.
He continues his journey into a more and more fictional world, as more and more real and imagined foes are needed to feed his malignant image of himself as a national hero.
His relentless attacks on his new and upbeat rivals continue to backfire, and his worn-out vision of a humorless future inspires little but dread.
His honesty has become so impaired, that for most it would take a mountain of good solid evidence for anyone to believe almost anything he says. We now just assume a minimum of distortion and expect perverse fantasy. That is weird, just plain weird, and most of us need a long vacation away from it.
Fortunately, we now see a way not to get drug into his fantasy. If we make it, we need to remember what a close call it was and enjoy the tomorrow. To a new narrative.
I was getting tired of that “feckless Dems” narrative, coming from Dems, center and left. After Trump gets taken away by the nice men in the little white van, with men in black following behind in black sedans I suppose, we can’t have “political realities” be the Dems excuse anymore. Dems have to be seen as going forward or going down fighting. Things like illegal immigration and greedflation have to be dealt with. Or else we’ll be right back to where we started, with desperate low-information voters wanting to give “weird” a whirl again.
I'm not seeing signs from Trump that he's confident in the scheme to steal the election through the House. A rational person would not drop hints, but Trump usually does. He might have been briefed that state courts won't buy in. And that's where it would land. Preparation in GA suggest Trump might block certification there. If it comes to that, mass demonstrations can persuade officials to do the right thing. I favor mailing a detailed description of the process of tar and feathers. No threat, just a description. Combined with a few thousand people outside the office. I will accept the legitimate results of the election but I'm no longer going to pretend it's legit if the winner lost the popular vote. my
I have to disagree…I think Trump might not have been serious about it when he was up in the polls over Biden, but since Harris has overtaken him and is continuing to make gains, I think he (rightly) believes that forcing it into Congress is his only option to become president again…which he obviously desperately wants.
This is a serious threat that could very well lead to a major constitutional crisis due to them fraudulently overturning the will of the voters. Which begs the question "What will we do then?" In France (and other countries) there would be a nationwide strike, with tens of thousands of people in the streets. The question is, could that happen here – on a wide enough scale that it could make a difference?
I may have phrased it badly. I do agree that they will TRY to steal the election and Trump planted denial cultists years ago in the swing states. There's a real risk if Trump only needs GA and one other swing state to prevent Harris from getting 270. Yes, they will try.
My point is that Trump does not seem confident that the aces he has up his sleeve will win the game. NC is in play according to one recent poll (One poll isn't a trend.) With the clear trend line that does exist, Trump is at risk of a blowout, which kills any chance to pull off the provisional steal.
Trump does NOT seem confident in his backup plan.
Will Democrats mobilize when Trump activates his plan? (I'm assuming Harris wins here.) I think so. I'm not sure WHO should take the lead in organizing mass protests. Politically, should Harris orchestrate the opposition? Or someone else who isn't directly linked to Harris with a personal stake in the outcome. Biden? Obama? OSC? Sanders? All the above?
But the "team" who could be irreparably harmed when Trump tries to steal the election is the people. The leader(s) of the opposition can be members of government but they aren't representing Harris – they are leading a revolt of, by, and for the people – and the principle of democracy. The majority should rule.
I think now is a good time for the leadership to assemble and in the open let the swing states know all hell is gonna break lose if they do not observe the results of the election. Harris can and should pursue a lawful result through litigation – representing her campaign. The opposition should represent the people who are going to be robbed if Trump engineers a "victory" through deceit and unlawful failure to observe the clear obligations of supervising a free and fair election.
"Harris can and should pursue a lawful result through litigation", which I absolutely agree with. The problem, of course, is that the Extreme Court will rule in Trump's favor on any issues pertaining to the legitimacy of the election – and there is no recourse to that. The only way to stop it is to put so much pressure on the legislatures and election boards in the battleground states that they don't do it…if that's possible.
Barring that, the only thing we could do would be a nationwide rejection of the illegal outcome of the election, though mass protests and strikes…which WILL lead to violence, I’m sure.
I don't know for sure if it was the biggest lie a president ever told but in hindsight and with recent events Trump's "I am a stable genius" line may be in contention as the biggest now. Let's send that one to fact checking.
Trump isn't nearly as smart as Mr. Ed…who was a true Stable genius.
Haha, I like it! (I'm fond of word play)
My thought for the day:
TFG is the laziest presidential candidate in US History.
Of course, his followers might say "But what about all the rallies he held in 2016 and 2020? He's not lazy!"
I rebut that with this: He has stopped doing rallies because his crowds aren't big enough. What the really means is that he never did those rallies in the past because he was a diligent and disciplined campaigner. He held those rallies for the sole purpose of getting his ego stroked. Always, and for nothing other than the ego high that he got. He has a jones for hearing crowd chant his name. Classic addictive behavior. And now that the drug has lost a lot of potency he no longer gets high from it. So he has tried some other things: The "town hall" with the black journalists. The so-called interview the other day. But I don't think he's getting the high from those.
So the proper thing to expect is coming is this: A street drug addict eventually holds up a store to get money to buy more potent drugs, possibly killing some people in the process.
How do they keep his ego motivated? It sure seems his handlers have a crisis on their hands. What could the masterminds behind plutocratic donations and evangelical rationalizations do? I imagine the emergency meeting:
A: “He keeps losing interest in the rallies. All that golf clapping and dozing off is causing him serious psychological harm. He could even be at risk of turning into a normal person, like, getting depressed or something.”
B: “Where the hell’s Qanon?”
C: “Would cheer up cards from Putin and Jong Un help?”
A: “Not without one helluva big check inside. They’ve been sending cash elsewhere.”
B: “What about teaming him up with Elon Musk?”
A: “Common man, get serious. Have you ever heard a Musk Ted talk?”
B: “Sorry. My bad. Forget I even mentioned it.”
A: “Qanon’s been distracted, busy proving Rittenhouse is trans and trying to get their shaman’s helmet back. As we know, our original Plan B wont work anymore, since Trump sitting behind any kind of intelligent speaker causes him to fall asleep. Can’t have that at a rally. Comon people, ideas!”
This just out: Abortion is on the ballot in AZ in November. It's an AZ constitutional amendment that guarantees the woman's right to terminate up to 24 weeks. This will motivate young voters in AZ, if any of the previous elections are an indication. It may have put AZ in the Harris column.
https://www.salon.com/2024/08/13/arizona-pro-choice-campaigners-celebrate-huge-win-as-abortion-rights-measure-makes-november-ballot/?in_brief=true