This was the big news today:
It’s still within the margin of error with 80-something days to go,. According to Josh Marshall, though, “The Times-Siena poll has been among the least friendly to Democrats through this political cycle and the previous one as well.” Further,
… as the pollster whose numbers have generally showed weaker end numbers for the Democrats, it tends to confirm the new electoral reality – at least for the moment. Harris now appears to have significant leads in the Blue Wall states which alone are enough for electoral victory, if only by the slenderest of margins. Meanwhile she is at least in solid contention in the southern tier states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and quite possibly North Carolina.
This means that it’s Trump who’s never very much on electoral defense, needing to hold all the southern tier states and grab at least one of the states in the Blue Wall. We still have almost three months left of this race. We’re only three weeks in. But this is a decisively changed race. That’s not an overstatement. It’s not just the top-line numbers. Major demographic groups have shifted in Harris’s favor.
A number of commenters are saying the race has fundamentally changed, for now. Nobody is predicted a Harris win. However, Trump seems to not know how to respond. If Trump were a skilled political operator I’d say the current polls were meaningless. But instead of responding to the Harris campaign he’s flapping around getting into a fight with the New York Times over the chopper whopper.
He threatened to sue the Times for not believing his story. It turns out that the dangerous helicopter ride he remembered may have happened in about 1990, and he was with a Black Los Angeles politician named Nate Holden. Trump was looking to build something or other in L.A. at the time, but the helicopter ride was in New Jersey. In 1990 Kamala Harris had just finished law school and had been hired as a deputy district attorney in Oakland. She passed her bar exam on the second try, btw. the point is that it’s unlikely he and Nate Holden talked about her or had ever heard of her. Trump probably has several different helicopter episodes tangled up in his head, some of which may be entirely imaginary.
Do read Inside the Worst Three Weeks of Donald Trump’s 2024 Campaign by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan (gift article). Trump seems to be unable to settle into any kind of sustained strategy against Harris. People in his campaign are trying to steer him toward specific policy areas — crime, immigration, inflation — and what he intends to do about them. But Trump isn’t getting the message. He keeps re-hashing his old grievances about the “stolen” 2020 election and crowd sizes and Harris’s biracial background, which seems to baffle him. He’s trying out nicknames for Harris — Crooked Kamala? Crazy Kamala? And he’s picking fights with supporters, including Miriam Adelson, the widow of the casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who inexplicably gives him lots of money.
Do read The Truth About Trump’s Press Conference by Tom Nichols at The Atlantic (gift article). He makes some of the same points Lawrence O’Donnell made the other night, about hyper-cautious media coverage of Trump. Trump’s press conference was all lies and word salad, but headlines made him seem normal. For example, CNN went with “Trump Attacks Harris and Walz During First News Conference Since Democratic Ticket Was Announced.” Nichols writes,
All of these headlines are technically true, but they miss the point: The Republican nominee, the man who could return to office and regain the sole authority to use American nuclear weapons, is a serial liar and can’t tell the difference between reality and fantasy.
Donald Trump is not well. He is not stable. There’s something deeply wrong with him.
This is not, as some of you keep insisting, because news media are somehow making more money covering Trump than they are covering other people. They are not. That was probably true in 2016, but it isn’t true now. What we’re looking at is a combination of not wanting to appear biased or more alarmist that the other journalists/media outlets and a fear of being sued.
We’re in a territory that I don’t think the country has ever been in before, in which one of the major parties is promoting a nominee who is not well and not stable and shouldn’t be allowed to operate anything more complicated than a toaster, never mind the nuclear codes. There have been nominees who were scoundrels of various sorts, sure, but that’s normal for politics. Whichever major media company ever comes out and says plainly the truth about Trump will take a serious hit in lost subscriptions, viewers, and advertising revenue, although possibly just a temporary one.
In other news — Somebody hacked the Trump campaign and stole a bunch of internal documents, including a big dossier of negative stuff on J.D. Vance. The Trump campaign is blaming Iran, but there’s no verification of that. The hacked documents are being sent to media outlets. It’s too soon to tell whether this will be a big deal or not. The Vance dossier, for example, is made up of publicly available information, news stories say. Nothing new and juicy has come out so far.
I watched much of the Harris Vegas speech via intertubes. She's got a great vibe with the audience. She looks like she's having fun and she's not projecting overconfidence but one of the mantras the audience chanted back was, "We will win!" (The other being, "Not going back!" )
She's gone deeper into her position about Israel. Too many needless deaths going after Hamas. Hostages must be freed. That seems about right to me.
Regarding the hacked documents, I hope the press is digging up Trump's comments from 2016 when it was HRC's internal documents were leaked. He loved it then, (And he seemed to be in the know before the next dump.) Trump thinks it was Iran – I have no idea. But will Trump get all warmonger about nuking Iran after he's elected?
The polling information is good news. If we see a further bump after the nomination in the "blue wall" more resources can shift to the swing states, including NC. Too early for predictions but if it's an EC blowout and Trump tries to prevent certification I'm not sure where it will go. If it's KNOWN that Trump lost the popular vote AND the EC vote and it's only by illegal trickery he tries to force it into the House, I'll participate in the riots.
Something is not right in Trump's brain. IMO, it's related to Trump being unable to stay awake – in the trial and in the convention. The Trump campaign has to to admit that Trump forgot who he was with – and it wasn't with anyone who knew, much less talked about, Kamila Harris. Or the Trump campaign can pretend it was with the Mayor of SF, and a major aerial emergency was never documented.
The Harris camp is saying Trump is too lazy to campaign at the pace, and with the excitement, of the Harris campaign. My instinct is that Trump can't try to keep that pace anymore. Possibly, the Trump camp is trying to keep Trump from cameras. Remember, his handlers pulled the plug on the Black Journalists interview abruptly. Vance is reduced to being a stalker, following the Harris campaign and drooling over Air Force Two.
There's this scene worth watching, which may suggest the framework of the next few months for Trump – and the outcome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KekChFdIe00
I love the article with the line about Trump "quite quitting." It kinda feels like he has, which make me even more worried about the transition though. An intresting idea has started floating around about Biden resigning immediately after the election to smooth the transition and get ahead of this go 'rounds version of fake elector trickery.
This is a comment to the Inside the Worst Three Weeks article link:
The only problem I have with this comment is the use of pronouns. The They and the THEM are groups within the republican party that need a definition. Right now, those in control of the Trump campaign are at odds with Trump. The Trump campaign has to answer to the big donors and the big power brokers, yet Trump has to message to his base.
His base has been prepped for Biden, and Trump's flaws hidden by what-about-Biden rhetoric that is not there anymore. Now he is the one looking old and confused, and the defense is gone. Most of his base does not care, but many have enough horse sense to follow who looks like they are winning. The trend is obvious. The markets picked it up quickly. The trend is away from Trump. Some of his base see it, some don't. He knows he is out of aces, but he cannot fold.
"Whichever major media company ever comes out and says plainly the truth about Trump will take a serious hit in lost subscriptions, viewers, and advertising revenue, although possibly just a temporary one"
True, also they need to keep Stump viable, they want the "horse race". Most care more about "ad revenue" than they do about reporting the actual truth. Trump is gonna lie till we stop listening and most of our corporate media won't have that!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnMy0EoR8uY
No, they don't need the "horse race." They've all been doing the usual horse race coverage, and ratings are down from past years. What they need is controversy. They need something different to get people interested in the news. If Trump gets more erratic, as I suspect he might, that might end up being the story.
"What they need is controversy"
Yep, Controversy generates content, content fills air time. Whether it's for ratings or just a sense of being fair the MSM in this country is invested in keeping Stump viable. I think they want the story, it's easy for them and he feeds them something new almost everyday. If they all collectively told the truth about Trump and kept telling the truth everyday Stump would have been buried long ago. I realize he's the GOP nominee but I also see that he is the most deranged man to ever hold or run for the presidency, seasoned journalists see that as well. The only thing he does well is garner endless media attention, he seems to have most of the media mesmerized or scared shitless. I'm not sure why but most play along with his game. Maybe he has friends in high places in the media or maybe the brass just want him in the news, it doesn't really matter. My point is that they do not tell the whole truth about him, they want him in the race if not ultimately back in the WH. It's a real stain on political journalism.
The wife and I went down to "Shady Hill" last night, a little dirt track about 30 miles south of where I live but you might as well be in Appalachia, it's southern culture to the max. Anyway on the ride down I only saw one "fuck joe biden" flag and one Trump flag. In the past that route would be filled with Trump shit. Nobody at the race was wearing a Trump hat or shirt, nothing. So my unscientific poll says Stump is toast!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYnro6MHTQ0
The NY Times article specified that an aide, under Trump's direction, fired of a series of emails? to the donor who bankrolls a Trump superpac. That's a violation of campaign finance, I think. Superpacs are allowed, under the USSC decision, if they operate independently of the candidate. They aren't an extension of the candidate's machine or the limits that Citizens United struck down would be enforceable.
It's moot in one sense – the FEC takes months to act. But the Harris campaign should publicly note that Trump is directing billionaire donors to what has become HIS superpacs. He's not running a campaign of or for the people. The megadonors he's ordering usually have something to gain from Trump winning. Something that will make them richer at the expense of regular Americans.
I was running out of time and quit my comment earlier. What I was headed towards was the fact that Trump has no plan B. Pence was the plan B. He burned that bridge. Pence is not an option for the party. So not an option is Liz Cheney. They were the social net of the party and now the party is in free fall. He has no aces and cannot fold.
So, for those who reference with a link, I reference this link.
The lyrics from the song the Gambler.
On a warm summer's evening
On a train bound for nowhere
I met up with a gambler
We were both too tired to sleep
So we took turns a-staring
Out the window at the darkness
'Til boredom overtook us
And he began to speak
He said, "Son, I've made a life
Out of readin' people's faces
Knowing what the cards were
By the way they held their eyes
So if you don't mind my saying
I can see you're out of aces
For a taste of your whiskey
I'll give you some advice"
So I handed him my bottle
And he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a cigarette
And asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet
And his face lost all expression
Said, "If you're gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right"
You got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done
Every gambler knows
That the secret to surviving
Is knowing what to throw away
Knowing what to keep
'Cause every hand's a winner
And every hand's a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep
And when he finished speaking
He turned back toward the window
Crushed out his cigarette
And faded off to sleep
And somewhere in the darkness
The gambler, he broke even
And in his final words
I found an ace that I could keep
You got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done
You got to know when to hold 'em (when to hold 'em)
Know when to fold 'em (when to fold 'em)
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done
You got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done
Songwriters: Don Schlitz
For non-commercial use only.
Data from:Musixmatch
It is old, and those that need to can hear it again. Kenny Rogers did it originally way back in the late 1900s. It is available to most with modern widgets and knowhow. Understanding it is another matter.
There may be something wrong with Trump, for suitable definitions of "wrong". But whatever it is is also what makes his audience identify with him. So, bang goes any argument from a consensus definition of "wrong". Our "wrong" is their "right", and the wronger he gets, the righter they'll think he is.
Interesting, clues today about Trump's state of mind. In the middle of the night (yesterday) Trump tweeted that the rally at the airport (15,000) was done with AI. The Harris campaign is having fun with that. Trying to dispute the size of the Harris crowds is pointless politically. The only people who will believe it are in Trump's cult, Nobody new will vote for Trump. Nobody for Harris will decide to stay away. People not in either camp will not be swayed in large numbers by a Trump fantasy.
But it's indicative of the level of decay. (open to suggestions for a better word) Trump used to obsess about ratings for his TV show. That's translated to obsessing about crowd size. Harris is punching that button hard. The response ought to be for Trump to schedule stuff in swing states. He's not. Either he can't – health? Mental health? OR maybe Trump has measured that "his" people are no longer falling for the old schtick. I'd speculate it could be money, but with the election (and jail) in the balance, not even Trump would hesitate to sign the check if he thought it would stem the bleeding.
There was an item I saw but can't find now… that Trump also tweeted that the first debate would be carried by Fox and be a live PA outdoor? event. Can't find it and I might be wrong. But the Harris campaign is not confirming that any dates have been added – other than ABC Sept 10. So this was also a paranoid fantasy that suggests Trump is afraid that he will blow a fair debate like Joe did and never recover in the polls. He's trying to draw Harris into a "debate" he has rigged against her. Is Trump going to say that since Harris skipped the Fox debate, he's not obligated to the ABC debate? Like that will work?
Sometime soon, even the lame excuse for journalists we have will start asking Vance where Trump is. Harris and Walz are barnstorming together and comparable events on the GOP side don't exist. The media does not have the same trepidation about Vance (I think) that they do with Trump. And Trump isn't out there, anyway. Has Vance realized he's "married" in the campaign to a candidate who isn't playing with a full deck?