Tomorrow Kamala Harris is supposed to announce her choice of a vice president. All the smart people are saying probably Shapiro, maybe Kelly, maybe Walz. I’ve got my fingers crossed for Walz, but they are all solid choices. I’m hearing there’s a rally tomorrow in Philadelphia, which points to Shapiro, but we’ll see. And here’s an atta boy for J.B. Pritzker, who has been a fine governor for Illinois and deserves more attention than he gets. But Illinois is even less a battleground state than Minnesota.
I’m seeing a lot of articles like this one by Rex Huppke at USA Today, Has Harris finally broken Trump? He’s flailing, glitching and running scared. “Flailing” is a word that’s following Trump around. See also Edward Luce in the Financial Times, Trump Is Flailing. Google “Trump flail” and you’ll get a lot more. On top of that, he’s only making about one or two personal appearance a week, folks on teevee are saying. And when he does speak in public, it’s the same old, tired nonsense about race and women and immigrants and anybody he doesn’t like. Several reports say that the audience in his recent Georgia rally was thinning out, heading for the exists, even as he was speaking. I’ve read the same thing about other rallies.
Jim Geraghty at WaPo writes, Does Trump even want to win? This is a commentary on Trump’s Georgia rally, in which he took up a lot of time slamming Gov. Brian Kemp. I am no fan of Kemp, but he’s more popular in Georgia than Trump is, saith the polls.
Maybe it’s a sign Trump is panicked because switching out Biden for Harris couldn’t have gone much better for the Democrats. (Notice you can find a lot of Republicans insisting that Harris’s becoming the nominee without winning a single primary or caucus is undemocratic, but you can’t find many Democrats making that objection. As former Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis once said, “Just win, baby.”)
But more likely, Saturday night was just the seemingly billionth example that at any given moment, Trump cannot prioritize anything, not even his own long-term interests, above his sense of grievance. Kemp and Raffensperger refused to help Trump game the 2020 election results, therefore they’re the enemy — regardless of how useful their support could be for 2024 in a state that could have a big influence on Trump’s fortunes.
Trump lacks the intellectual capacity to conceputalize a grand strategy and stick to it. He had a simple plan that was working against Joe Biden — emphasize Biden’s age and frailty. But now he’s the old man. He lacks the emotional strength to steady himself and respond effectively to a new Democratic opponent. He’s flailing.
In other news — Justice Thomas Failed to Reveal More Private Flights, Senator Says. Busted again.
Trump has a sense of entitlement the size of Texas. He's not campaigning much compared to Harris, who is doing six events this week, all in battleground states. I understand JD is also doing campaign events in battleground states but the only way he'll get any airtime is if he maligns cats again. I suspect Trump has diverted his resources into plans to steal the election – he's in December mode, just before J6, lining up co-conspirators. Trump prefers to try to cheat than to try to win. It's a mistake to think he's checked out on the presidency if he's not doing the political things he needs to do to get back in the race. Trump knows prison awaits if he does not take the WH. "Take the WH" does not mean "win the election."
Trump's got two options to steal the election though I'm sure he's looking at a half-dozen. He might try to prevent certification in those swing states that Harris wins (that would get her to 270 if they are certified.) Problem: If Harris wins big, her coattails will flip the House, possibly bigly. So if Trump hangs up the certification, the Constitution is explicit. The House votes to decide the results. NOWHERE does the Constitution provide that the USSC will decide the election.
In 2000, the USSC decided the results in FL. The Congress still did the J6 thing and certified according to the EC. I'm not sure the Executive branch and the DOJ would respect a USSC decision in a half-dozen states to overturn the popular vote with the obvious intent of handing the election to the loser. Harrris would take power and I think the Joint Chiefs would not object. But the attempt would be equivalent to suicide for the conservatives on the court – Democrats who previously opposed expanding the court will change their minds. Federal legislation will revise the process of certification of federal elections in the event a partisan attempt to hang up a federal election is staged. Watch for an attempt to hang up the certification of new Democratic House members. (Again, if the USSC attempts to reverse the results of control of the House by delay, I'm not sure the Biden Administration and the DOJ will respect it if/when the lower federal courts have declared the results according to the popular results.)
Second option: If it gets that hairy that the US House and the USSC try to pull a coup, and the Biden Administration, the DOJ, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff (the military) refuse to allow the popular will to be overturned by the losers, Trump will call for an armed revolution. And MAGA will be whipped up to a frenzy. But they can't win. There will be bloodshed before the clowns realize they haven't got a chance. About 35% of the population will revert to a post-civil-war mentality of resentment. What I wonder is how much information is being gathered now to document the plans for an insurrection that may be underway. I think the DOJ will NOT do a post-civil-war forgiveness for the leaders. They will be put on trial and if guilty, do serious time in federal prison.
Waltz it is, and I hear he has a sense of humor. This is what we need. I prefer to laugh with them once in a while at least, not just laugh at them all the time.
Glad your favorite came through.
He deserves it as just for nailing the opposition as weird. The word that says it all.
Even Laura Ingraham called Trump out to his face, that what he's doing is a "loser's strategy," and it is. You don't trash the popular governor and state officials of your own party if you want to win that state. But he can't help himself; when he's on the stump, Trump can't stop nursing his grievances and ignoring the good advice of his own party. Race and identity politics is a loser, but they can't let that go either as they have nothing else. Cooler heads in the party say fight Harris on policy, but even if Trump were able to find the discipline and modicum of intellect to be able to do that (he can't) they simply don't have any policies that are popular. They do have Project 2025 (which is virtually the same as Trump's Project 47 on his site) and they're running from it.
Its not won yet though. Democrats need to keep pouring it on as if they are underdogs, leave no state untouched. They need to hit him on everything — he’s demented, corrupt, a convicted felon, crooked, immoral. Throw everything AND the kitchen sink at him!
I was hoping for Kelly but Waltz is fine with me I'm just glad she didn't pick Shapiro, it's going to be hard enough to win michigan we don't need a neocon on the ticket. I'm not sure why anyone would be surprised by Stumps whiney baby routine, it's been the same shit for eight years. He is what he is as Swami would say; "a big bag of shit" he ain't never gonna change!
Walz was my preference also. Having said that, I felt (and still feel) that the concept of selecting a VP candidate in order to improve the campaign's chances in a particular state on the electoral college map is overrated. Several election related reasons. 1) "Do no harm" is the most important consideration. Consider Palin and Vance. 2) If a particular candidate is not chosen that doesn't mean that candidate can't still significantly help the campaign reach and deliver voters in that state. For example, if Shapiro can help deliver PA, couldn't he do a lot in that vein even if he's not the VP candidate? 3) What percentage of on-the-fence voters (based on the presidential candidates) will pick the ticket that has a candidate from their own state? Some, for sure, but is it enough? 4) To be first in the line of succession in the event that the POTUS cannot serve is the MOST important consideration for the presidential candidate in selecting a running mate. A candidate who is clearly unqualified is a definite turn-off to voters (see #1).
All of that is just about electoral effects. And I think electoral effects are and should be a consideration for the POTUS candidate, but one which ranks below viability to serve as president and a close second to that: workable as a teammate (what they call "chemistry").
So the bottom line for me is that I think Kamala approached the decision knowing all of this and more. I trust her on the decision. It doesn't hurt that I think the one she chose ranks really high on the scale of ability to connect with ordinary Americans.
I'm beyond thrilled that Walz is Veep. I was hoping for Shapiro, but when I heard Walz speak (in videos), I knew that he would completely resonate with working-class people, especially those from my homeland, the rust belt. I expect him to draw a lot of these folks back to the Democratic fold who went for Trump because the party turned their back on them, years ago.
One psychic I enjoy listening to says Trump isn't sleeping. He's heading downhill physically. And he can only play one song: victim- grievance-retribution, and not only does that get old, but he can't even sing it that well anymore.
I am seeing that Harris is starting to pull ahead in the polls. I am beyond excited !!! I hope our friend Gulag is still alive to witness history being made.
I found a group whose purpose is to register people to vote Democratic.
They claim to be the most cost-effective way to get Democratic votes. It's down to the ground game, and I plan to do what I can to get as many people registered and to the polls.