I understand that Kamala Harris is now officially the Demcratic presidential nominee.
WaPo is reporting that in 2019 the Justice Department was investigating whether Trump was getting money under the table from the government of Egypt. See $10M cash withdrawal drove secret probe into whether Trump took money from Egypt (no paywall). The $10 million in cash was taken from an account at the National Bank of Egypt associated with the Egyptian intelligence service.
The discovery intensified a secret criminal investigation that had begun two years earlier with classified U.S. intelligence indicating that Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi sought to give Trump $10 million to boost his 2016 presidential campaign, a Washington Post investigation has found.
Since receiving the intelligence about Sisi, the Justice Department had been examining whether money moved from Cairo to Trump, potentially violating federal law that bans U.S. candidates from taking foreign funds. Investigators had also sought to learn if money from Sisi might have factored into Trump’s decision in the final days of his run for the White House to inject his campaign with $10 million of his own money.
Those questions, at least in the view of several investigators on the case, would never be answered,The Post found.
Within months of learning of the withdrawal, prosecutors and FBI agents were blocked by top Justice Department officials from obtaining bank records they believed might hold critical evidence, according to interviews with people familiar with the case as well as documents and contemporaneous notes of the investigation. The case ground to a halt by the fall of 2019 as Trump’s then-attorney general, William P. Barr, raised doubts about whether there was sufficient evidence to continue the probeof Trump.
Do read the whole thing. Also read emptywheel. The $10 million may or may not have gotten to Trump — we’ll probably never know — but the circumstantial case is pretty damn strong.
The NABJ Meltdown
Here’s more about Trump’s meltdown at the National Association of Black Journalists annual convention in Chicago on Wednesday. It began before Trump took to the stage. Axios reports:
Trump did not want to be fact-checked live and was refusing to go on stage, NABJ president Ken Lemon told Axios.
“[Trump’s team] said, ‘Well, can you not fact check? He’s not going to take the stage if you fact-check,'” Lemon said.
The intrigue: The Q&A with the GOP presidential nominee was delayed more than an hour before he eventually joined a panel of Black journalists, including ABC News correspondent Rachel Scott, Fox News anchor Harris Faulkner and Semafor reporter Kadia Goba.At the time, President Trump blamed the delay on audio problems.
Lemon told Axios, “There were audio problems, but they were resolved very quickly.”
“The bigger problem was his threat not to take the stage when he had agreed to go on. He did not want to be fact-checked, but we could not let him on the stage without fact-checking,” Lemon said.
Behind the scenes: The stalemate was so prolonged that NABJ leaders were prepared to explain to the audience of nearly 2,000 people why Trump would not appear.“I was prepared to go on stage to craft a statement, saying he decided not to go on stage because of fact-checking… we couldn’t compromise on that.
As Lemon was preparing that statement, Trump walked onto the stage.
Trump still blames the delay on technical issues. But, yeah, he walked on that stage already pissed.
Trump Is an Old Man
Josh Marshall just published this. He begins by pointing out that Trump has aged a lot since he first ran in 2026, and even since 2020.
This was hidden in a way so long as Biden was the nominee and it was hidden or perhaps rendered meaningless as long as Trump was ahead. If your candidate is old but he’s winning … well, whatever. If Joe Biden had spent the last year sitting on a five point lead the whole campaign, clearly, would have gone quite differently.
What’s not clear to me is whether Trump has the fight and fluidity left to battle from behind, to run a campaign as an underdog. This obviously assumes some key hypotheticals not yet in evidence. At the moment poll averages show Kamala Harris with a very small popular vote lead. That likely makes the electoral college as of this moment if not a tie per se than something like a jump ball. Of course, her momentum could dissipate as fast as it built up. Or she could continue on the same trajectory. My gut tells me we’re in a fundamentally changed race. But we don’t have enough evidence yet to operate beyond impressions and hunches.
My point in writing this is that we haven’t really seen candidate Trump much this year.
He’s not saying we haven’t seen plenty of Trump. He’s saying that Trump has been coasting, just doing his old act for cameras, and not really campaigning, exactly. He’s spent more time playing golf than going out on the campaign trail. The switch to a younger opponent really has thrown him off. His widely panned speech at the RNC and his temper tantrum at the NABJ suggests he’s not adjusting well.
The Prisoner Release
Now we’ve learned that even as President Biden was wrestling with stepping down from his campaign, he was actively engaged in a 12-dimensional-chess multinational deal to get Americans out of Russian prisons. Wow.
Anyway, Trump is pissed. He’d bragged that he, and only he, could get those prisoners released because Putin likes him. When the deal was announced, Trump ridiculed it for being a bad deal, somehow. Do read Steve Benen at MSNBC about why Trump is basically just pissed that the deal was made without him. But never fear; J.D. Vance attempted to give Trump credit for the swap anyway.
Fred Kaplan at Slate speculates that Putin might have agreed to the deal now because he realizes Trump might lose.
However, like most world leaders, Putin has no doubt been reading the polls, and he may have concluded that Trump is not going to win, that Vice President Kamala Harris has a better chance of taking office, and that Harris is no less suspicious of Putin’s Russia than Biden is—that, like Biden, she views Russia as a threat to the world order and sees Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an important ally very much worth defending.
Therefore, Putin might have reasoned, it’s better to take a deal now so it looks as if he’s acting without an eye to our election. This is particularly true if he’s interested in resuming negotiations or striking deals on other, more geopolitical issues—though there’s no evidence at the moment that he is.
This is just guessing on Kaplan’s part, but the timing does seem like a bit of a slap in the face to Trump.
What does one do when the idiot is no longer useful?
Or a populist with fading popularity?
Trump could get away with being old and incoherent as long as Trump could credibly point to Joe Biden's missteps. And there have been problems with Biden expressing himself. I'm not sure that Biden could not do the job – on his worst day, he's ten times better than Trump – but for the person who watches with the sound off, Trump is convincing.
For the person watching with the sound off, Harris will walk all over Trump. She's poised, coherent, and expressive. Even with the sound off. The body language and facial expressions aren't reality TV quality – they are real. She actually knows what the job is supposed to be and how it's supposed to be done. Turn the sound on, and she's devastating against Trump in prosecutor mode. Some people have said that Prosecutor Harris will be offensive to minorities who have had a brush with the law. I don't think so – she's applying the principles of justice to a lawless, rich, white billionaire. They will love it.
Harris is going to be able to taunt Trump for being afraid of a girl if he does not debate. One of the most popular excuses for Trump is that he's courageous and "tells it like it is." That will ring hollow with anyone not in the cult if he runs from a debate. At this point, it's theoretical – Trump could change his tune at any second. ABC is continuing preparations for the debate that Trump agreed to. Trump is insulting ABC (He did that out of the gate at the NABJ.) Trump would love it if ABC retaliated against him so he'd have an excuse but I doubt they will fall for it. In the end, if Trump is behind, he will have to take the chance.
Regarding the prisoner exchange, Trump just looks petty. Trump was specific that if he was elected, the WSJ prisoner would be released before Trump took office. I questioned if Trump had been in touch with Putin or if Trump was just spouting BS. Putin, if you judge from Helsinki, has Trump on a leash.
My guess – Trump forgot his place – Trump told Putin in the speech exactly what Trump wanted Putin to do, and exactly what the conditions would be. From Putin's perspective, Trump was demanding Putin give up a valuable negotiating chip, getting nothing in exchange, just to make Trump look good. Trump thought he had cleverly boxed Putin in and Putin may have just reminded Trump, regardless of the outcome of the election, that their "special relationship" is that Putin owns Trump.
Simon B. deserves a Gold Medal for an event they haven't named. After taking Gold she tweeted that she "loves her black job." Without naming Trump, it was a response to Trump bringing up "Black jobs" at the NABJ. You go, girl!
Monday? fireworks start in DC. The ball is back in Judge Chutkin's court. Rumor is she won't wait around. She'll set a schedule for hearings and she's not going to entertain delays. The trial won't start before the election. The hearings are a debate over what charges have survived the USSC bonehead decision of the century. What parts of an insurrection are "official acts" vs what parts of the insurrection are "private acts." But witnesses and testimony can be introduced as part of the consideration and the key point is: it could include Grand Jury testimony by Republicans who were there in the weeks leading up to J6. All this stuff will be public record, reported nearly in real time. Normally, Trump must attend – he may ask for an exception. The judge will refuse if she thinks it opens the door to an appeal later. The opening moves start in three days.
The trend in national polls will be interesting, but the polls in the swing states will drive Trump to desperate action if Harris takes the lead and publicity from the court in DC put J6 back on the front page.
I always despised radio stations who would overplay a popular tune to the point is became aversive. Don the Con has gotten way …too overplayed. Who is not already tired of JayDee. He started out as an unpopular populist and continued to alienate. He went from J.D. to JayDud in about a week.
Kamala is quite a well needed change. Lots of young people are getting registered to vote. We can always use more generational harmony. Some of us do not crave a binge of Lawrence Welk reruns.
CNN Headline: "Trump backs out of ABC debate as he pushes for Fox News instead"
That's an easy one for the Harris campaign, anytime anyplace, we'll do both debates ABC as schedualed then FAUX, please proceed! Look like the campaign is going to announce the VP pick tommorrow, monday? I don't really know how you don't pick Sen. Kelly, combat pilot in the Gulf War, astronaut flew a bunch of Space Shuttle missions, twin brother is an astronaut, married to Gabby Giffords, relatively moderate but no too much, from a state we need to win. Seems like a no-brainer to me!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xa9vWVEYojg
Trump wants the Fox debate to be in front of a big audience, which Harris should not allow. They’ll be his people and will cheer and boo through the whole thing.
Let them boo, she can handle it. Or just demand no audience, I don't think they should just say no, that's what Stump is doing!
Two points. Joe Biden (before) and now Kamala Harris (now) want a debate. The rules that the Biden camp worked out were designed to foster an exchange of ideas. Only one mike on for the speaker whose turn it is. No audience to drown out the message of Joe Biden. Because Democrats would not orchestrate interruptions to make the occasion a one-sided rally for Biden, .
Second point: What Trump proposed without ANY attempt to consult the Harris camp was a Trump rally stoked with MAGA zealots where Harris would be served up as a sacrificial lamb. Under no circumstances should she do it.
A debate will be desirable for Harris right up til November. Trump knows a side-by-side equitable debate puts him at a huge disadvantage. She's almost 20 years younger, quick on her feet in interviews and she was devastating in the Senate. (Video is available on Utube.)
I think she'd kill Trump in a debate. She'll have border crossing numbers – which are down. She'll have inflation numbers – and they're down. (DOJ just opened up an investigation of grocery prices – they went up with Covid with supply-chain issues and never came down after the pandemic ended. Profits spiked and DOJ thinks they have a case.) Crime is down – she'll have those numbers, Immigrant crime rates are lower than crimes by native-born Americans. None of those crimes are "good" or preferable to the victim. But demonizing a group for their ethnicity DID work for the Nazis but they won't work in the USA! She will be prepared from Trump rallies to call him out on the stuff he plucks out of a dark smelly hole. I'd love for her to ask what the fetish is with Hanibal Lechter. Use the word fetish. I wouldn't vote for someone who fantasizes about cannibalism. It's weird. And illegal. But illegal doesn't bother you much, Mr. Trump.
I agree with uncledad that Harris should be willing to do Fox, even with hostile interviewers UNDER THE RULES SET UP BY BIDEN. Part of that said that when it's your turn, you can respond any way you want. In other words, you can skip past a stupid question and answer with what YOU want to say. I'm sure those rules were demanded by the Trump camp, but if Harris does Fox, she needs the freedom to dance past a gotcha question. Feature front and center that Fox paid almost 800 million in damages for repeating lies that they knew were lies about the 2020 election which Trump lost! I hope the Harris camp approaches Fox with the previous rules and standards that Trump agreed to. Set up a debate on Fox with a date and dump it on TFG exactly the way Trump did.
Trump did the Atlanta rally today and spent a lot of time lying about why there were empty seats. There were. Trump told the audience there were hundreds, no thousands outside who were not allowed in. Then he seemed to say they forced them away and they were someplace else. (Because a check of the outside of the bldg would not show hundreds who were turned away.)
It's pathetic how he makes stuff up. The claim was that Putin would release the WSJ prisoner if Trump was elected. Pure BS. Fri night, Trump announced the ABC debate is canceled and the new date is Sept 4 on Fox News with a love MAGA audience. Except the Harris campaign was never in the loop. Pure BS. The Harris people handled it beautifully – the ABC debate is NOT canceled – the event will go on as a debate if Trump shows or a 90-minute discussion between Harris and the hosts if Trump chickens out. And Harris is open to ADDING debates that meet the terms both sides agree to. My guess is that Trump wanted to kill the ABC deal – Harris is willing to do an event. It's up to Trump what that event is. That's NOT what he wants because he's gonna be the one who backed out of a written deal, The proof will be that the event DOES happen and Trump isn't there.
I suspect both sides are doing intense internal polling of the battleground states. I read that Harris is ahead in NV and tied in AZ according to recent public polls. Trump did not get the bump he wanted out of his convention even with the ear bandage. Can the DNC put on a better show? It could put Harris distinctly in the lead.
In DC Judge Chutkin rejected a motion from Trump to dismiss everything. She set a date today, two weeks out to lay out the hearing(s) on deciding what of the original indictment survives the USSC decision. And the likely result is hearings either with witnesses or the transcripts of the Grand Jury testimony to put the planning that led to J6 insurrection out in the open. The judge has to decide what criminal actions were NOT part of Trump's official duties – to do that, a spotlight will shine on what the testimony of insiders reveals about the conspiracy. A mini-trial before the trial to decide what can and can't be IN the trial. I only wish it was televised.
I'm not telling anyone it's over… not til Jan 7. But it looks like Harris is even now and there's major events between now and November that can improve her status going into the election.
From a mainstream media article in my Microsoft blurb by Ed Kilgore:
"polls comparing the Harris-Trump matchup to the earlier Biden-Trump matchup mostly show the same pro-Democratic trend. On July 17, the Morning Consult tracking poll had Trump leading Biden by four points (46 percent to 42 percent). On July 24, the same poll had Harris leading Trump by a point (46 percent to 45 percent). On July 16, Reuters-Ipsos showed Trump ahead of Biden by two points (43 percent to 41 percent). On July 23, the same poll gave Harris a two-point lead (44 percent to 42 percent). On July 2, the New York Times–Siena showed Trump leading Biden by six points (49 percent to 43 percent). On July 24, that pollster showed Trump leading Harris by one point (48 percent to 47 percent). Similarly, on July 2 the Wall Street Journal had Trump leading Biden by six points (48 to 42 percent), and Harris by just two points 49 – 47 percent) on July 25. Both Times-Siena and WSJ showed Harris ahead by a point when non-major-party candidates were included."
"Most recently, and perhaps impressively, Bloomberg/Morning Consult has released a new batch of seven battleground state polls taken from July 24-28. Overall, they showed Harris leading Trump by one percent (48 to 47 percent), as compared to a two-point Trump lead over Biden in early July. The individual state gains by Harris were also striking: she led by two percent (49 to 47 percent) in Arizona, a real problem state for Biden; by two percent (47 to 45 percent) in Nevada; by two percent (49 to 47 percent) in Wisconsin; and by an astonishing 11 percent (53 to 42 percent) in Michigan. Harris was tied with Trump in Georgia at 47 percent, and trailed him by two percent (46 to 48 percent) in North Carolina and by four percent (46 to 50 percent) in Pennsylvania."
"three battleground states have enough post-Biden-Harris-switch polling now for FiveThirtyEight to compile averages, and all of them show very close races. In Georgia, Trump leads by 1.1 percent (45.9 to 44.8 percent), but Harris leads in Michigan by 1.8 percent (44.8 to 43.1 percent) and most surprisingly, in Pennsylvania by 0.4 percent (45.1 to 44.6 percent)."