Loose Cannon has fired. She just dismissed the documents case, on the grounds that Jack Smith’s appointment as special counsel somehow violated the Constitution. I’m reasonably sure it didn’t, and since (as I understand it) no jury had been selected, double jeopardy doesn’t apply. Jack Smith can appeal. This will be viewed as a victory for Trump in the short term, however. Coverage in Washington Post here. More later as it happens.
Vance is the New Pence
I was horrified to learn the RNC convention is starting. In my head it was next week. Oh, well. I promise I will avoid watching any of it.
Several news outlets have now announced that annoying twerp J.D. Vance will be Trump’s running mate.
On Not Being Pathetic
Please, please read this Josh Marshall post, titled On Not Being Pathetic. I agree with it 100 percent. Apparently a portion of the Democratic Party and Dem-friendly “pundits” have decided since the Saturday shooting that they aren’t going to be able to replace Biden, so they are resigned to losing the presidency. Josh Marshall calls out Jonathan Chait in particular; Chait has been pushing hard for Biden to be replaced, and now apparently he’s decided Trump is going to win, and we might as well just get used to it. But he’s not the only one. Here’s Josh Marshall:
The folks talking to the Capitol Hill sheets didn’t say, we’re dropping the swap Biden idea. They apparently said, well, we’re giving up on presidential race altogether. That is just the kind of toxic loserdom that makes me see red every time. Can’t stand it. I’m agnostic on the replace Biden thing. If the big party players want to do it then do it. And if not then Biden’s the candidate. I go back and forth on which option I think has the better shot at success. What I’m hearing now is that these ringleaders are just going to take a pass on the whole race or have their contribution be giving demoralizing quotes to Politico if they can’t get their way. The truth is we don’t have any time for whining. If members of Congress want to replace Biden on the ticket, they can. They need to get together and do it. If not, then drop the idea and move on. But again there is just no damn time for whining.
The replace Biden effort was slowing down before Saturday, Josh said, mostly because “it was hitting a lot more resistance from regular voters than the people pushing it anticipated.” As I wrote earlier this week, there simply wasn’t a significant shift in the polling. My take is if there really was significant concern that Biden was impaired and not just having a bad night, the party should have acted already and gotten the switch over with. The longer this drags out, the harder it’s going to be for Biden to reassure voters he’s still capable. But apparently not everyone in Washington was all that concerned. So here we are.
And now that Trump managed to survive getting his ear nicked he’s being hailed in even mainstream media as some kind of great man; a man of destiny; a new Napoleon, or something. It’s really sickening. Someone on social media today was praising Trump for “rising up” after being shot, while President Biden sometimes has trouble walking. I never saw him have trouble walking, but apparently there’s a video. I responded that one of our greatest presidents couldn’t walk at all because of polio, and that superior ambulatory skills have nothing to do with the job. But I’m ready to go find a quiet spot in the woods someplace and just scream for an hour or so. This has to be the worst election year ever.
It gets appealed to the 11th Circuit who already slapped Cannon down for the appointment of a Special Master a few ages ago. IMO, Cannon knows she will be reversed. She's getting out without ruling against Trump directly, doing for Trump exactly what he requested. So no MAGA hate mail. As you said, no jury panel had been assembled so the major risk is averted. (That being a dismissal from the bench with prejudice during the trial, which would have permanently ended the case.)
The FBI has to preserve the evidence in case Trump is elected because he will try to permanently end the case. The only legal path that does that is the previous one. So the evidence is what Trump will order destroyed. (Which is a different crime.)
Keeping in mind that the recent immunity decision shows that the Supreme Court is protecting Trump, I wouldn't see why you'd think Cannon will be reversed.
Everyone *said* she'd be, *before* that decision, if she did something sufficiently egregious. Then, the SCOTUS came up with an immunity decision that isn't really the product of sane, good faith, jurisprudence.
So, she was the ref, and the rules of the game changed, and she made a judgment call. Does she expect she might be reversed? I reckon she does. But the reasons for saying she'd know she would be reversed have changed.
Here's my thought: she dismissed the case, so there can't be a September or October evidentiary hearing, which would doom Trump's re-election bid. This is the criminal case where his super-duper Presidential Immunity wasn't of much use, since his crimes were primarily post-presidential. She needed to completely eliminate the criminal case, or she wouldn't have been able to block the hearing past the election.
She doesn't care if it resolves the issue permanently – why should she? A future-president Trump will just keep firing AGs until he finds a reasonable one who will order the DOJ to stop pursuing the case. Of course, Biden is old, and has a stutter, so wow, what kind of neutral observer could make a decision between the two men?
And if God Emporor Trumpy-poo doesn't win, the Republican courts will breathe a sign of relief that they don't have to invent new Presidential immunity arguments over the coming years, nor, worse, having to utterly demolish those decisions, if a Democrat could be caught.
Doug…that's pretty much exactly what I said to my wife after hearing the news, that Cannon wants off the case and also wants to make a positive impression on Trump and (especially) his hate driven followers, who might go after her if they thought she'd done something against their cult leader.
As bad as a judge as she is, she MUST know that she will be reversed by the higher court, which will remove her from the case, which is a win for her on several levels. Of course, she also is a major Trump toady and now (with Clarence Thomas' signal that provided cover) she can be relatively certain that the case will end up before the Supreme Court, who will rule in Trump's favor, also…though I suspect that would have been the case regardless of how this had gone.
As someone said recently "Once you have the courts, you can do pretty much anything you want"…and that appears to be what has happened here.
In fact, that's what the far right has been planning and working for the past few decades, especially concerning the Supreme Court – as Mitch McConnell's egregious actions in preventing Obama from appointing one and then ramming through the others nominated by Trump clearly shows.
There is another example of Republican plausibility as the new standard of truth and justice.
Vance was first in line blaming Biden for the PA shooting. Trump is trying to be less offensive to swing voters in swing states. So I'm guessing Vance will be tapped to make the most offensive accusations which Trump will dance around. At the same time Vance is making libelous statements, Trump is going to demand Biden say nothing offensive about Trump.
IMO, Biden has got to repeat his opposition to violence in politics. Then he has to pivot and nail Trump for the J6 violence and the attempt to reverse the last election by deceit and violence. Trump's support of the rioters is a matter of record as is his commitment to release the criminals if elected. Joe can't dial down the truth even a little bit.
JD Vance wow I guess Heinrich Himmler wasn't available? He pegs the magat hypocrite meter so he's a sure thing with the hateful base. It's too bad for Cannon that Stump is gonna lose otherwise this dismissal would get her Clarence Thomas's gig!
JD Vance. I'm not surprised. Of the top three, he seemed the most likely to me. Neither Rubio nor Burgum fit the team. The Trump Party is running on a promise to destroy the government our founders gave us which will weaken our country to the point of not being able to oppose the expansionist goals of Russia and China… in return for which, we, the people, get to cheer when TFG gets to build towers in Russia and China. Vance seems a good fit for that team. Hillbilly Elegy creds!!!
It's not been covered in the MSM but Clarance Thomas was alone in a concurrence on the immunity ruling where Thomas opined that Jack Smith's appointment had no validity. I saw on the Intertubes that Democrats in Congress has proposed the appointment of a special counsel to investigate the millions (literally) in trips and goodies that Thomas has received and failed to report or pay taxes on (until they were reported in the media.)
So our buddy Clarance may have had a vested interest in getting the issue of a special counsel in front of the USSC – ASAP. It's worth noting that no one else on the court joined Thomas in his opinion that Jack Smith did not have the authority to charge Trump.
48 hours after the shooting in PA, the police are baffled as to a motive. Inquiring minds want to know.
"the police are baffled as to a motive"
I'm pretty sure the shooter wanted to take out Stump?
When the shooter winds up dead, he's usually a patsy for somebody else with an agenda. In this case, the shooter was a Republican with no identified agenda of his own. No criminal history, no affiliation with radical groups. No manifesto left behind.
If he was a puppet, who was the puppeteer? Since everything turned out rosie for Trump, I'm deeply suspicious but looking for facts. I'm fairly sure we all got rolled re the Kennedy assassination. Parts of the report are STILL classified. I want the truth here, whatever it is.
"When the shooter winds up dead, he's usually a patsy for somebody else with an agenda"
When you shoot at a former president with a secret service detail your going to wind up dead?
People want to know; Was he a Right-wing accelerationist or was he a secret Leftie?!
I think he was just 20 year old kid. No big plan. No concept of "future." He did a thing to see if it could be done. And now he is no more.
And the news cycle moves on.
Doug – I saw a piece where they discussed the far right attempts to create a movement to oust Trump at the convention – based on the fact that they think he's surrounded himself with too many people who are part of the "deep state".
It's entirely possible that the failure of that movement prompted this right wing Republican to decide to take matters into his own hands and find a "2nd Amendment Solution" as some on the right have referred to in the past.
Or, it might just be that he was a true conservative Republican, who saw Trump for what he is – a threat to the Constitution, Democracy and the Nation.
Regardless of his actual motivation, the right is going to spin it as him being a tool of the "radical left" and further "proof" that Biden wanted Trump assassinated…as the claimed based on the Jan 6 warrant standard verbiage.
"I promise I will avoid watching any of it."
I never watch any of that crap, conventions, debates, SOTU addresses, etc, In fact I usually tune completely out of the bobble-head news business a month or two before an election, I've tuned out way early this year about a month ago. In my mind it is pointless 5th grade gossip, the news media can't help themselves they over exaggerate everything, it's over the top and I choose not to let any of it enter my mind. I know who I'm voting for, I have a life to live, why bother with the nonsense we all know how they will cover everything. Fortunately my cubs are on almost every night, so I have something meaningful to watch!
Dark days are ahead no matter what the outcome of the election will be. The darkest days will come to Ukraine first, it appears, and all of NATO nations soon after. The Vance choice is solid evidence of a rejection of a continued American association with the norms and values of Western Civilization, and the ideals it represents. Isolationism from European values and influence and culture combine with a politic which elevates an elite ruling class will totalitarian power to enhance the few at the expense of those who are minorities, refugees, non-subservient females, handicapped, part of the rainbow coalition, and all with associations to other than greed, based, fundamentalist, pseudo-Christian churches or religions. They are targeted to be excluded from access to political power in any fashion. I am sorry if I missed any groups. Union workers is an obvious error of exclusion on my part along with a large portion of the entertainment industry and of course most intellectuals and artists. Feel free to point out other omissions on my part.
For those of us who are a part of any of these groups or have empathy for any of them, we are expected to take on a subservient status to our new elite. They seem to think this country only belongs to them. Oh dear, I forgot our indigenous people, from whom most of this was more or less stolen. Nothing in that 2025 plan for them either. Unless you count a leaky pipeline though what little sacred land, they maintain some control over.
I'm not sure how important the people quitting the election really are. If they've pulled the money, the resources to get the word out, that's a setback. I do not believe the polls are accurate – there's a distinct difference between what's been polled and what the results have been in a lot of races since 2020. Case in point, last year, in Wisconsin the election for chief judge was a blowout for democracy and justice. The non-fascist won by eleven points. It's changed the election maps in WI due to proper rulings on gerrymandering. I can't find the pre-election polls but as I recall, no one predicted the MARGIN of victory.
Much of this was related to anti-abortion efforts following the fall of Roe v Wade. That's still an issue. Efforts to further restrict abortion and contraception are a matter of record.
The hearings in DC regarding the impact of the USSC on the J6 case will begin BEFORE the election. There may be live witnesses – if not, the transcripts from Grand Jury testimony may be introduced. This would be new stuff (for the media) from Trump's inner circle.
The most "accurate" polls suggest Trump is up by two points. If they are wrong by a minuscule amount. (I was gonna use a technical Navy term based on the width of a pubic follicle.) the election is a dead tie. The general polling is immaterial. What's happening in the swing states?
What if Trump wins? Does the pro-democracy movement pack up and move to Canada? I don't think so. The US was the birthplace of modern democracy. Yeah, if Trump wins, we will see Kent State multiplied by a hundred And resistance to Trump multiplied by a thousand.