We seem to be back at square one. Currently Conventional Wisdom says that somebody is about to take Joe Biden aside and tell him to step down. So who knows? I caught a bit of the press conference he held yesterday and enjoyed hearing President Biden speak intelligently about foreign policy, as opposed to Trump, who says NATO is dead. And lately Trump seems to think Hannibal Lechter is a real person.
I’m seeing news stories saying that the polls aren’t significantly different from what they were before the debate. Here’s one:
538’s average of the presidential race includes a few dozen polls fielded entirely after the June 27 debate. Most show a modest gain for former President Donald Trump over Biden, and the average has correspondingly increased from about a dead heat on debate day to a lead of around two points for Trump as of July 11 at noon Eastern.
Observers and operatives, as they are wont to do, have made hay of this.
The article goes on to say that this is a marginal difference, not a steep one. And an ABC News / Washington Post poll that came out this week says the race is tied, or at least the difference is within the margin of error. The numbers say that a substantial number of people who would prefer Biden drop out are still going to vote for him if he doesn’t.
This is from NPR, today: “The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.” And Ed Kilgore writes at New York magazine, “Biden v. Trump Polls: Joe’s Support Is Slipping, But Not Crashing.”
So whatever you want to call this conflagration over the debate performance, it appears it really hasn’t created a groundswell of support for Trump. But it does make the Electoral College map a bit iffy for Biden. And it’s caused a real problem with Biden’s Super PAC donors.
So, I’m back to having no idea what the party will do.
A Weenie for the Ages
File this one under “what we’re up against.” U.S. Rep. Glenn Grothman of Wisconsin’s 6th District this week trotted out all his Mommy issues for all to see.
In a speech on the House floor Thursday, Representative Glenn Grothman railed against government programs such as subsidized childcare, calling out President Lyndon Johnson’s “war on poverty” as taking “the purpose out of the man’s life, because now you have a basket of goodies for the mom.”
Grothman went further in his misogynist rant, blaming the “breakdown of the family” on “people like Angela Davis, well-known Communist, people like the feminists who were so important in the 1960s” and somehow coupling them with the U.S. government in the 1960s.
“So I hope the press corps picks up on this, and I hope Republican and Democrat leadership put together some sort of plan for January, in which we work our way back to where America was in the 1960s,” Grothman added.
Wow, Angela Davis. I hadn’t thought about her in years. Yeah, so I guess that there never used to be such a thing as poverty or irresponsible men or any of that until the government passed laws that, what, made men irrelevant? That’s not exactly what I remember. But where do these specimens come from? Well, okay, his district is just north of Madison and Milwaukee. I’m guessing more Holsteins live there than people. Maybe he needs more contact with human women so he doesn’t mistake us for cows.
Update: Rudy Has a Bad Day
A judge has dismissed Rudy’s bankruptcy case.
A judge threw out Rudy Giuliani ’s bankruptcy case on Friday, slamming the former New York City mayor as a “recalcitrant debtor” who thumbed his nose at the process while seeking to shield himself from a $148 million defamation judgment and other debts.
U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane criticized Giuliani for repeated “uncooperative conduct,” self-dealing, and a lack of transparency. The judge cited failures to comply with court orders, failure to disclose sources of income, and his apparent unwillingness to hire an accountant to go over his books.
“Such a failure is a clear red flag,” Lane wrote.
Dismissing the case ends his pursuit of bankruptcy protection, but it doesn’t absolve him of his debts. His creditors can now pursue other legal remedies to recoup at least some of the money they’re owed, such as getting a court order to seize his apartments and other assets.
Just listened to some speeches from Netroots Natiom and was inspired.
While I am not a wonk, I will try to highlight the the, well, highlights as I took them.
Forget the age bullshit, and even forget the media slobbering over the age and cognitive features being presented as the future of the democratic party. This election is not about Tromp vs Biden but the current administration and what it has done in the past four years. Then lets have national discussions on what the previous administration has not done and focus on what the next administration, if the Trumpzies win, Will do in the next four years, or more if the supreme court anoints Il douchebag king for life.
We know what the frump administration did in its first iteration, which was jack shit. Then go on offense, asking people, families and individuals will women be better off than now, will workers and unions be better off, LGBTQ individuals be better off, especially if they are outlawed for being, immigrants be better off being treated as invaders instead of victims, the poor, the elderly be better off without social services and affordable health care….
The answers can be found in any speech , interview, or rally. The answers are all there and are a resounding NO.
I could go on but I want to finish as much reading as I can stand from the NAZI Heritage Foundation.
One thing I've seen, is, everyone is accepting as given that Joe Biden's debate performance was "dismal" or "tragic" or "a crisis".
I do not see that; I didn't see it then, I don't see it now. I do see a lot of "old man cooties" – and yes, that's a juvenile term, for a juvenile prejudice. He did look old. Not weak, not feeble, not addle-brained, or confused; but old. Hence, my use of the deliberately inflammatory term – say something *solid*, or get your argument dismissed as belonging in the 6th grade (or earlier).
He did have an answer where he meandered – that's what having a stutter can look like, but, he was *not* confused. He was touching on too many topics – face it, when trying to make moral arguments, a debate with DJT is a target rich environment, too much to condemn. But, as a person who now has a stutter, I could follow, even as I felt a bit badly when time ran out for him.
I was completely unprepared for the vociferous negative reaction from both sides. From the Republicans, sure, I expected they'd pronounce Trump the absolute winner, and Biden the clear loser. But suddenly, it felt to me like everyone was saying that Biden should have worn a better deodorant, because of his strong BO under the lights.
Do you see what I mean? The complaints didn't match what I saw; and, even if I acknowledged the complaints had *some* validity, "he must leave the race," was completely unsupported.
In this case, they're screaming "something something too old something something must step aside" instead of complaining about BO, but, the two arguments have the same merits, as far as I've seen. They *see* something, and it's so awful, he must leave the race, but… WHAT?
Donald Trump is a criminal; he's unhinged; he doesn't make sense; he's going to be crucified with P2025 and Roe. And people are like, "Biden should be running away with this, but instead, the peacock, the one we keep fluffing, polls well, in polls of registered voters, 3.8 months from the election."
Well… that, for me, doesn't say "drop out". That says Biden seems to be on a pace to win it, as we get closer to the election, and start paying attention to likely voters. I might sound more confident than I am, but… damn it, I think even a small plurality of Republicans agree that DJT is a horrible human being. And if so, Biden wins easily, and the country survives.
I strongly disagree; IMO, Biden sounded terrible. I was driving home when it started, so I caught the first couple minutes on radio, and right away, I was appalled at Biden's voice (tired, weak) and his lack of focus. (I watched/listened to most of the rest of it on TV after unpacking my groceries.)
My theory is that a bunch of Dem Party "Consultants" kept Biden up late every night for a week, trying to fill him up with their clever ideas ("If Trump says {x}, say {y}!"), not recognizing that (1) that doesn't work with Biden, and (2) it was far more important for Biden to be in good physical shape – and well-rested – than to have a head-full of witty replies to Trump's crap.
The creepy possibility underneath this theory is that someone or some group(s) within the Dem Party *wanted* to undermine his performance in order to elevate another candidate. I have no evidence for this, but it's consistent with the focus of much chatter on center-left Media (PBS, NYT, etc) since then.
I'm with Maha – I don't know what to expect from the Democratic Party now, which is scary, because I have very little faith in the political instincts of the Party apparatchiks and institutions.
(OTOH, of course I agree that Trump is "criminal" and "unhinged", and I would never vote for him or the GOP)
There's a few places Trump has the pulse of the American voter. Many want an idol, not a flawed human. And we are all flawed in some ways, gifted in others. Trump *looks* like a billionaire – he projects the same financial genius he pretended to be for TV. He can look the part that Joe does not. Trump casts a spell, inviting, expecting, and demanding adulation. About 40% of voters want that illusion. Most of them will never admit they were swindled.
Flip that coin over.
Joe – or his administration – has done a brilliant job. (There are places I fault him but that's also true of Obama. I do not fall in love with ANY president.) Others have assembled lists of the accomplishments of this administration. They are remarkable, even more so considering that the Republicans in power, unlike previous versions of the GOP, will stoop to any deception to bring Joe down.
I expected Biden to be prepared to lay some whoop-ass on Trump in the debate. The facts are so overwhelmingly on Biden's side. We all know Trump was going to try to overwhelm Joe with bombastic revisions of the truth. The disappointment we felt over Joe's performance manifested in different ways – the media has been the most vindictive over the beating Biden did not deliver. And this is wrong.
Suppose the QB who is gaining the most yards, delivering the most passes with the fewest interceptions and winning the most games chokes in a presser. Do you bench him? Yeah, this is politics and image is a part of the stats as much as points on the board. But the media has made image everything and they aren't covering recent events. Like Covid under control, wages growing, prices falling, more green energy, investment in infrastructure, some drug price controls, a sincere commitment to the environment. (Yeah, I'd like more but compare Biden to Trump on global warming.)
Before the debate, CNN decided the moderators and the network would NOT fact-check Trump in real time. They decided Biden would have to refute Trump's fire-hose of lies. IT WASN'T THEIR JOB TO INTERVENE. (Or so they decided.) Guess what! – the same is true with deciding that Biden should retire. But the media is fanning the flames to create an outcome they decided that they want. In the most polite terms I can phrase it, they should BUTT OUT!
When the measurement of media coverage shows that the press is covering Trump's ineligibility based on criminal felony convictions, rape in civil court, and business fraud in NY so egregious that Trump is banned from doing business there, I'll call that fair but the press is giving Trump a pass for being lower than pond scum while roasting Biden for a stutter.
I'm entitled to my opinion and I'd be fine if Kamila Harris was the nominee. But it's not my call. Unlike the MSM, I know that. If the Democrats give the nod to a rabid squirrel, that rodent has my vote over Trump. Keep Trump out of the WH. Get him in front of a series of juries and put him in prison. Let the GOP self-destruct and put things together after that.
"Conventional wisdom"
Is there a source?
"Conventional Wisdom" has no source. It kinds forms and evaporates like the clouds that don't rain. But "Everybody knows" and "Everybody says" is irrefutable.
Basically, judging conventional wisdom is a bit like wetting your finger and holding it up to feel which way the wind is blowing. It's not a perfect science.
The issue is you seem to be feeding the media feeding frenzy that Biden is toast without any real sources, that is what I meant? Just wondered if you had a source?
I’M REPORTING ON THE MEDIA FEEDING FRENZY.DUH. I’m sorry you don’t understand the term “conventional wisdom,” but it just refers to a widely accepted opinion of the moment. To day that “conventional wisdom seems to be” is just saying “this appears to be where common opinion being reported in news media is moving right now.” Conventional wisdom on Biden seems to be shifting hourly. And do back off or you’re going into time out. I am in no mood to put up with anything from anybody right now.
I have the same reaction as SomeRandomGuy above. I just now got around to watching the debate (well, some of it. as much as I could stomach) and my first reaction was "that's it??" That's what all the hubbub is about?
I'm reminded of the Dean scream or when Hillary "broke down" while testifying before some committee (I've long forgotten which). Seriously, *that's* what everyone's been on about? I'm just not seeing it. Y'all making a big something out of a little nothing.
Just a cheapfake.
When I read about Gothman's comment, like you I thought "What a Weenie"!
Just remember the trial, the hush money trial. Even the title is a spin. What was it about? Cheating, not just on his pregnant wife but on the election and the use of campaign funds. It was a trial about cheating to win the election over Hillary. Remember also about Russia, and the trolls. The Kremlin interference, and the Bill Barr whitewash. More cheating. Look who just visited Mar-a-Lago. Orban, who like Putin likes his elections rigged. Now they own the SCOTUS. It is nice to have that sort of insurance in the system so you can cheat more. We will have the perception of a fair election, but it will not be one.
It is silly to ask are they cheating on this one. Of course. They are even making movies on how the last election was rigged. Oh yes, the film maker was a resent guest at Mar-a Lago according to a NYT piece of late. They have been trying to rig every system they can since the last election which they still deny losing.
Is it possible that the Bidcn-Trump debate was rigged somehow? They have begun a whisper campaign about his age since way before the debate. Trump claimed Biden would be on drugs for the debate. Trump could have made sure he was, with the kind that would never be detected. We do know Trump is a convicted felon. We know he has cheated on elections before at least 34 times. We know this is probably the tip of the iceberg. Look at the Jan 6th affair, with a multifaceted plan which included Senators, Representatives and even SCOTUS wives in on the plot.
Look at all the delay in finding the truth before this election, including an absurd ruling by the SCOTUS to impede fact finding and justice.
Once again, the Trump criminal wing will take control of the news cycle. Ad money is a big factor. He who can spend the most can buy influence and ads.
As we saw at the trial, Pecker did a lot of ad work for free for his buddy Trump. He even got a sleaze story printed about his rival Ted Cruz, who seemed to get over it enough to help out in the insurrection plot.
We know the forces at work in the upcoming election and we can be sure the cheating started long before now. We know Trump is a felon and this is his mode of operation. We know Rudy G. was in with him and has used the bankruptcy court to buy time and to continue to defraud. Finally, the judge caught on. Rudy will never tell the truth. Also remember Russia, Putin, and Ukraine were all a part of these dealings. You can bet your bottom dollar they still are.