This is the sort of thing that depresses the hell out of me.
Voters rank “the economy” and “inflation” as their top concern in every major survey. And they consistently express more faith in Trump’s competence on those issues than Biden’s. In a Bloomberg–Morning Consult poll from last month, swing-state voters favored Trump over Biden on the economy by a 15-point margin and trusted the Republican more than the Democrat to best handle the cost of everyday goods and services by 12 points. Those results are in line with the findings of various other surveys of both battleground states and the nation as a whole.
Of course, here in Real World Land President Biden and his economic team have done a brilliant job lowering inflation while avoiding a recession. A whole lot of other industrialized democracies are suffering much more than we are. And (as Eric Levitz goes on to explain) Trump’s plans for a second term would make inflation worse.
Voters’ faith in Trump’s price-management bona fides may rest on nostalgia for the 2019 economy, antipathy for Biden, or the belief that The Apprentice was a documentary. One thing it most certainly does not rest on, however, is an accurate understanding of the Trump 2025 agenda’s macroeconomic implications.
That agenda includes imposing a 10 percent tariff on all foreign-made goods, enacting large deficit-financed tax cuts, and slashing America’s foreign-born labor force through mass deportations and immigration restriction. Taken together, this constitutes a recipe for a drastic increase in U.S. consumer prices.
Trump doesn’t understand how tariffs work. In his first term he persisted in thinking that a tariff is somehow a tax imposed on the importing country rather than a tax on the imported goods that American consumers end up having to pay. One suspects that at least a few people have attempted to explain to him how tarriffs work, but he decided to trust his own “stable genius” rather than economists. And Trump is a bleeping moron.
I don’t think the American people have ever heard the story of what a terrible businessman Trump really is. That information was out there in 2016, but if you aren’t the sort of person who reads the long, investigative features in major newspapers probably you wouldn’t have heard it. The truth is that his record as a businessman is awful. The real estate business he inherited from his father may have had some success after Trump took it over, although it’s hard to know now if any of that was real or just cooking the books. But it’s my understanding that every business venture Trump started himself ended up in bankruptcy court or just plain failed, or was shut down by a court because it was commiting fraud. If you know of an exception, do speak up. Were it not for tax and other fraud, being bailed out by The Apprentice, and probable money laundering for vaqious criminal entities he would have been wiped out long ago.
Some of this collective ignorance among voters is the Fox News effect, but some of it is the collective failure of U.S. news media. Too many allegedly “mainstream” news outlets just plain shy away from telling the plain truth, either because of losing access to Republican sources, or losing viewers, or possibly losing advertisers, or whatever.
And year after year people complain that elections are covered as if they were a “horse race” — who is ahead in the polls, who is behind — while the stories of the candidates’ records and what they might do if elected go mostly untold (except in those really long newspaper stories that only us nerds read). And by golly, so far as we move into a presidential election year, they’re pretty much doing that again, with the additional focus on Joe Biden’s age without noting that Trump is only three years younger.
The Biden campaign, at least, is complaining about some of the coverage of Trump. Charlotte Klein writes for Vanity Fair:
Joe Biden’s presidential campaign accused the political press this past week of not shining “a bright enough light” on Donald Trump’s abortion record, taking specific aim at a New York Timespiece that described the former president—who has boasted about his Supreme Court picks overturning Roe v. Wade—as now “employing vagueness and trying to occupy a middle ground of sorts” on the issue. “It’s time to meet the moment and responsibly inform the electorate of what their lives might look like if the leading GOP candidate for president is allowed back in the White House,” the campaign wrote. Biden campaign aides reiterated this critique on X. “Good to see folks have learned nothing from a decade of covering Donald Trump,” wrote deputy campaign manager Rob Flaherty.
It’s a start.
In other news: X May Lose Up to $75 Million in Revenue as More Advertisers Pull Out. Comment on social media — “Elon has lost his wife, his kids, 40 billion dollars, and his space ship crashed. It’s like a genre of country music that doesn’t even exist yet.”
In actual sad news: Eric Lutz, Vanity Fair, Trump’s Attacks On Judge and Law Clerk Triggers “Hundreds” Of Threats: Report. So maybe after a few people have been killed by Trump culties the gag order thing will be taken a bit more seriously.
"And year after year people complain that elections are covered as if they were a “horse race” — who is ahead in the polls, who is behind — while the stories of the candidates’ records and what they might do if elected go mostly untold"
Agreed. I put about as much faith in these "national" polls as do the reporting in Breitbart. I don't care who does the polling it's all designed for the infotainment news industry. They need eyeballs and ears and reporting the facts take too long and requires research your post points out, only us nerds. I read a story today that the NYT’s and the washington post’s election coverage is really only horse race shit, even they don't take the time to talk about policy. What is worrying about the polling is has the ability to drive momentum to one side or the other. But I really believe Stump doesn't have a chance. He only has 25-30% of the voters in his magat camp. It's going to be close but I have to believe most Americans even some who voted for Stump twice have had enough of his bullshit (even as his criminal trials are just beginning) and can see through the media narrative. It's easy to get depressed about the polling, but I think it is all bullshit, I don't read about, I turn the channel, I treat the presidential polls like I treat some of my asshole neighbors, I just don't look!
“either because of losing access to Republican sources, or losing viewers, or possibly losing advertisers, or whatever.” Oh I’m pretty sure it’s losing access to GQP’ers!
Where is Gulag?
I sent gulag an email. I'll let you know if I hear from him.
I once aked a christian what's the story on the churches having constant revivials. The answer came back to me with the saying, If you're not growing, you're dying. I believe that sentiment applies to Trump and his campaign. He's being slowly exposed as being a self serving fraud and the marjority of the American votes are going to reject him if he gets the nomination.
"If you're not growing, you're dying"
Wow that is deep! Your right though, his con is wearing thin. It's easy to panic about Stump as POTUS again, we elected him once so why not again? It's difficult but I need to believe it won't happen again. So it is written!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp5JCrSXkJY
On the one hand, I'm not sure the polls are that accurate or even that important a year out. On the other, I know rw media has been waging psychological warfare, like forever. Don't get spooked by this stuff – that's its goal. They want to depress you. Here's a counterpoint, from Heather Cox Richardson's substack
Read the rest^ to be picked up.
re Trump and tarifs. For him, it's a vehicle to attack another leader or country. It's just a weapon, he has no clue about economic policy.
re the uptick in threats, Joyce Vance reported that Jack Smith documented – in 275 single-spaced pages – these threats, to argue for reinstating the gag order in the NY fraud trial. On Thanksgiving Day, while we were enjoying ourselves, he filed a "Rule 28(j) notice" in the DC Court of Appeals (this court is considering Judge Chutkan's gag order) – in essence copying the DC court on the threats Trump made against the NY court. Smith is on it, in other words.
Vance's words are worth printing here:
“Am I being naive?” she asked. “Yes”, I told her <- this is my position also.
On Nov 22, Digby published an article on a radical shift in coverage of Trump. The title, if you look it up: "Is The Media Sobering Up?" She cites the recent headlines from major outlets. All the more notable because Digby has been screaming about how pathetic coverage of Trump has been. (Based on what he is actually announcing he'd do in his next term) Does this prove the shift is reliable and permanent? No. But it's encouraging that publishers are taking the leash off reporters (for a moment, anyway) and letting them call a fact a fact, a quote a quote, and actually describe the implications of Trump's political promises.
Re the polls: I think they are skewed in Trump's favor based on what has happened in the most recent elections. If you accept that the actual election is reality and the poll is a guess based on a sample of what people say, reality says we're well-positioned for 2024. Some folks think we're on the cusp of finding the smoking gun that proves the corruption of the Biden Crime Family. And these same folks are sure that Trump will overcome a total of 91 criminal charges across four different jurisdictions. Folks are entitled to their opinions, including a fervent belief that the world is flat.
My perception is a little bit different. Some of these cases are going to trial before the election. The civil trial in NY will wind up this year including a verdict. Trump is toast – the question is how badly he will be burnt. At the moment, the judge, the prosecution, and the defense are focused on the appeal because this case is over. Trump will be found guilty. The penalty will be LESS than most expect because the judge will want to close the door on the amount being excessive as grounds for an appeal. I think the judge will penalize the family by shutting down everything in NY. The case will be settled law all the way to the USSC before the election – the final decision will specify that the Trumps cheated as a matter of policy for years. For anyone not a cultist, this will be three torpedos amidships (First the trial, then the appeal, then the USSC – all concurring on the finding of fact and penalty.)
The next trial starts in the primary season. It won't derail Trump's success in the primary. But we're gonna establish for anyone watching that Trump cheated on his wife when she was home with a young son. It's not just the Stormy Daniels payoff – there was a different woman who was silenced by the National Enquirer. The key people in both – Michael Cohen and the publisher at the Enquirer – will testify. This will be the recurring theme – Trump insiders providing testimony and evidence. That trial will be wound up around the middle of the year if the appeals process is expedited. But a pattern begins to emerge as a legal fact. Trump is a liar and a cheat in business and in his personal life. By this time the second E.Jean Carroll trial will affirm Trump is a rapist.
Every indication suggests the DC J6 trial will conclude before the Nov. election. Nobody knows what the outcome will be but from what's out there now, I don't think you will find a lot of people who will bet on Trump getting a "Not Guilty" verdict. (If you find one, send him my way. I'll take his money with no remorse.) That's gonna establish as a matter of fact (possibly still under appeal in Nov,) that Trump tried to cheat in the 2020 election. Trump won't have any evidence that Democrats cheated but Jack Smith (I predict) will prove Trump engineered the fake electors scheme and it was an election fraud. (Also a felony.)
I think Judge Loose Cannon will delay and postpone the documents trial. This MAY open up the schedule for GA to schedule Trump's prosecution next year. The prosecutor has suggested a date to the judge, possibly because she anticipated that Cannon would delay the federal FL trial until after the election for Trump. If I had to pick which case I'd rather see, it's the GA case. Trump lawyers are flipping like trained dolphins at Sea World. IDK but it may be that almost all the co-defendants will flip except Rudy, Clark, and Eastman which means a small slate of defendants and a large list of witnesses for the prosecution. Those witnesses will be able to corroborate discussions in the Oval Office that implicate (that's a weak word) Trump as an active participant in every aspect of the attempt to steal the GA election. That trial will be televised!
As I read the polls, Trump and Biden are flying at the same altitude. However, Trump is gonna get most of one wing blown off and all of the other wing blown off over the next eleven months. The media IS gonna cover the trials – even Fox. If reporters outside Fox will report that Trump did whatever the facts in court prove Trump did, they won't have any obligation to cover the smoke and mirrors which will be Trump's media defense outside the courtroom. (The Democrats are behind it – the bigoted black prosecutors are out to get me.) If the facts prove Trump did it – that's the story! (If the facts aren't there or they fall apart in court, fine! Cover that. But I don't think it will happen.)
Bottom line – if I had to pick which plane I'd feel safer in – it would be the Biden plane. The Trump plane is certain to take so many hits before the general election in an environment where the objective truth will be unmistakable to all but the blind cultist. And Trump can't win with the cultists alone. If Trump did not think the damage from the trials would be devastating, he'd be getting the trials done and behind him before the election. Trump knows that if the truth becomes the dominant narrative, he's screwed. And we're getting it out there.
But well before the election, I think Trump will fall apart. A lot of people have picked up on huge cognitive falls by Trump. He's said he beat Obama when he never ran against Obama. He's confused leaders in Europe. His speech patterns are decaying. In short, and I don't want to get technical, Trump is coming unglued. IMO, it's gonna get a lot worse very fast under the strain of repeated losses in court. I don't think Trump will make it to the finish line in November 2024. I'm not sure where the collapse will happen or when but Trump is at the breaking point now, but he's only under a fraction of the load that will be on him. When Trump has a physical and/or mental breakdown, there is no understudy who can save the show.
This asshole again? Still needs salt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnMy0EoR8uY
It's not "a collective failure of U.S. news media", the U.S. news media are in the bag for Trump, in the bag for all of this. The media is the problem …
Just remember – the more it changes, the more it's the same thing:
Les Moonves: "Trump's run is damn good for CBS."
Our nation of drama addicts can't be bothered to think about who to trust. We might as well spend our days watching wrestling shows.
MSNBC. Especially don't miss Chris Hayes and Rachel Maddow. I highly recommend the "Why Is This Happening?" podcast for November 12, which has Hayes and Maddow together. If you have Peacock or Hulu you can probably stream the video part.
Watched it over the weekend (Friday night?)… excellent. I ordered Rachel's book.
"We might as well spend our days watching wrestling shows"
Unfortunately before Stump that is what the magats did, they had no interest in policy or politics, they watched WWE and ate cheeseballs, now they watch FAUX news go to Stump rallies and to the detriment of mankind they vote. There is no shortage on stupid!
Off Topic: The Georgia Supreme Court has effectively killed the law signed into law earlier this year which MAGA kooks hoped would have empowered a commission of GOP loyalists to remove Willis for prosecuting Trump. Bottom line – the commission probably won't exist because the GA Supreme Court was required in the law to sign off on the standards of enforcement and the court said, "No, thanks."
Boom! No standards approved by the court means there's no yardstick to measure the conduct of a DA. The law is toothless. Could the GA legislature amend the law? I suppose but it will be challenged and go before the GA Supreme Court and clearly, they don't like what the legislature is trying to pull off.
This will have no effect on the outcome of the GA trial but it all but guarantees that the trial WILL happen. IMO, Kemp is fine with Trump being convicted if the proof is there. Kemp would be one of the first in Trump's worst gulag if he wins the election.
At this point, the judiciary is holding against the assault on democracy by MAGA. Trump's attacks are all about protecting Trump's humongous rear end. MAGA has much more insidious motives – the courts are (and will continue to) thwarting the attempt to replace the US government with a fascist state not answerable to the majority or the law.