The attack by Hamas against Israel appears to have caught both Israel and the United States by surprise. At The Atlantic, Gal Beckerman reports that just a week ago, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was touting increasing stability in the Middle East. “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades,” he said.
In the coming days, Sullivan’s Pollyannaish view will undoubtedly be subjected to great scrutiny. Hamas, and its Iranian and Hezbollah allies, has not made a secret of its ultimate aims. Beyond wishful thinking, the cause of the hopefulness articulated by Sullivan might be this: the developing deal to establish formal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia—a developing deal that is most likely developing no more.
The Biden administration and Netanyahu have been deeply invested in such an agreement, and the desire for it might have created a blindness among Israelis and Americans alike about what was happening just over the border in Gaza. “We wanted to try and pretend that this conflict was isolated and contained and didn’t need our attention,” Yaakov Katz, the former editor in chief of The Jerusalem Post, told me today hours after the invasion.
The only predictable thing about this is that Republicans blame Joe Biden for the attack.
Note that there seems to be a lot of assuming that Iran is behind the attack, but that’s not something we actually know at this time. So let’s not assume.
One big mystery about today’s events in Israel, which I alluded to in the previous post, is how exactly Israel was caught quite this unprepared. An attack of this scale required very large numbers of people to be read into the preparations if not the operational planning for the attack. Israel has long had a dense network of informants and collaborators in the territories. That’s layered over with signals intelligence and various forms of surveillance. And yet Israel appears to have been caught totally unawares and unprepared. It’s not just that they didn’t know something like this was happened today. They don’t seem to have known that an operation of this scale and audacity was even being considered.
That’s an intelligence fairly that’s hard to overstate.
Why Hamas did this also requires some explanation. A friend rightly described this as an organization-scale suicide operation. For the why you have the unsettled business of 1948 and 1967. You have the fact that Mahmoud Abbas won’t live forever. You have Israel’s looming normalization with the Gulf Arab states. Particularly the last factor provides a decent explanation of the ‘why now?’ Indeed, I’m seeing a lot of foreign policy and security analysts confidently declaring that Hamas planned this attack with Iran to break the momentum for normalization with the Gulf states.
But then Josh goes on to remind us that we don’t know if Iran was in on this or not.
The Washington Post is reporting that this shouldn’t have been such a surprise.
Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip and carried out Saturday’s attacks, said the operation was in response to the blockade, as well as recent Israeli military raids in the West Bank and violence at al-Aqsa Mosque, a disputed religious site in Jerusalem known to Jews as the Temple Mount.
“Enough is enough,” the leader of Hamas’s military wing, Mohammed Deif, said in a recorded message Saturday, the Associated Press reported. “Today the people are regaining their revolution.”
As of Sept. 19, before Saturday’s outbreak of violence, 227 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli troops or settlers this year, according to U.N. figures, with most of those deaths — 189 — occurring in the West Bank. At least 29 Israelis, mostly in the West Bank, were also killed this year as of the end of August, according to the same U.N. database.
I don’t pay enough attention to the Middle East to know how this might impact Netanyahu politically.
“Enough is enough,” the leader of Hamas’s military wing…
Sadly, tragically, today, Israel joins the ranks of those who were caught completely unaware that something earth shattering was coming up.
We Americans were shocked by the attacks on 9/11.
Almost all of Washington, DC (with the exceptions being Congresscoupsters Gym Jordan, Scott Perry, and a handful of other RepubliKKKLAN House and Senate KKKooks) was caught completely unaware on January 6th.
And now, Israel was stunned by the attacks orchestrated by Hamas this morning.
I was always left with the impression that there was no finer, more thorough national intelligence agency in the world than Israel's Mossad.
"SO WHA HAPPEN?!?!?"
How did they miss terrorists practicing hang gliding and parasailing?
How did the Mossad miss members of Hamas building, or adapting, amphibious attack boats?
Imo, Bibi's going to be in deep doo-doo!
It's quite apparent that he and his newly-formed radical conservative party were caught completely by surprise.
Was this some form of sabotage, or retribution, coming from within Israel's intelligence community for the new government's anti-democratic, pro-authoritarian, stances?
How did this happen?!?!?
I don't think we'll know why this happened anytime soon – if ever.
But in the meantime, the Middle East is back in flames.
The Palestinians feel that this violent response was not disproportionate to the violence they face every day – and have for decades.
"The Two State Solution" seems as far out of reach as ever.
If I was a religious man, I'd pray for both the Israelis and the Palestinians – and pray for peace
But since I'm not, my heart goes out to both sides.
And I'll shed an equal amount of tears for the ordinary people on both sides who'll be caught in the coming carnage.
Here's something I've believed for a long time:
Sometimes, revenge is a dish best not served at all.
For both 9/11 and J6 there were plenty of warning flares, so to speak, that something big could possibly happen. In both those cases the intelligence community didn't take the warning flares seriously. For 9/11 the Bush Administration willfully ignored the threat of Islamic terrorism because they were focused on other issues, on Russia, and on Iraq rather than al Qaeda. And of course for J6 the Trump Administration was behind it. But this is mostly a case of confirmation bias winning out over paying attention to the evidence. And it looks like that's what happened in Israel also.
I thought bringing peace to the Middle East was in Jared's wheelhouse.
Maha, I hope your cold is better, and that you re-adapt to northeastern winters.
I think Jared left out one minor detail when he crafted the Abraham Accords. He seemed to have glossed over the Palestinian question. Other than that he did a fine job.
Jared had everything squared away until Hunter went and fucked it all up!
Tossing out some rough numbers, there's a population in Israel of nearly 10 million. Most are Jewish but about 18% are Muslim. Rough that out to 1.8 million. In the Gaza and West Bank there are about 5 million Palestinians. If you deduct 2 million Muslims from 10 million in Israel, you have about a Jewish population of 8 million. If you add the Palestinian population to the Muslim population who are citizens of Israel, you come up with roughly 7 million.
You have the government of Israel, representing 8 million Jews oppressing roughly 7 million. The word 'oppressing" reflects bias until you look at the death rate. In the 2021 conflict, Hamas killed 19 civilians with a massive rocket attack. The retaliation by Israel (using numbers from the UN Office of Humanitarian Affairs) killed at least 253, including 129 civilians. So Israel's response killed 20 Palestinians for every Jewish casualty – half of them civilians. The birth rate of Palestinians is greater than that of the Jewish residents so population parity isn't speculative – it's a certainty.
I don't see a way out without a racial bloodbath. A decade ago, Israel should have looked at the demographics and worked out a peace plan with an emphasis on mutual respect and reverence for religious shrines. A contract that emphasized that mutual respect for sovereignty and security might have worked. Jimmy Carter came close to a peace accord and the failure wasn't Jimmy's fault. No US president has gambled on peace since. The US has protected Israel from international repercussions for human rights violations for decades. (Europe is sick of what Israel is doing.)
When this chapter ends, Israel will have the blood of thousands on their hands. (My guess.) Hopefully, the world will punish Israel with economic boycotts and sanctions to send the Israeli economy into a depression and keep its foot on the neck of Israel until they decide to grant Palestinian autonomy.
One big roadblock is that the last time, back in the 90s, when the Israelis seemed likely to take peace seriously was followed by a long deadly series of attacks by the Palestinians. That led to the big political change emphasizing security that brought Netanyahu to power. The Israeli response was further repression. I don't think many Israelis have looked back. There are a lot of Jews in Israel, and Jews have had a lot of lousy negotiating partners over the centuries.
I'm not a fan of comparing this to 9-11. Last time I checked the USA had not occupied the "terrorists" land for the 50 years prior. From amnesty international: "For half a century, Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip has resulted in systematic human rights violations against Palestinians living there". In recent years more and more land in the west bank has been stolen for settlements, this activity has really accelerated after those damn fools put Bibi back in power. So no this isn't Israels "9-11" this is just another chapter in Israel’s history as an Apartheid State. I agree with Gulag in that I feel for the ordinary people on both sides who'll be caught in the coming carnage.
Nasty situation. It's only equivalent to 9/11 in that it *is* "an organization-scale suicide operation" (quote from OP) for Hamas. Israel – especially now, under Bibi – will retaliate disproportionately, which means [tens of?] thousands of Palestinians will die soon. IDF has declared that they will "take control" of Gaza, and they've been bombing it pretty heavily already.
This will be terrible for Gazan & the two MILLION people who live – essentially – in an open-air prison 15×5 miles, with almost no fresh water or other resources. I expect at least a million people will [attempt to] flee. Where will these new refugees go? In our current political climate, we (USA) won't take *any* of them, and Europe – already overflowing with immigrants & refugees – probably won't either (for fear of stoking more right-wing backlash).
I'm also very concerned about the likelihood of this widening to a larger conflict. Hamas must know that they have absolutely no chance to defeat Israel on their own, so it's easy to believe that this attack has been coordinated at least with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and possibly others. But even then, without direct military action from pretty much *all* of Israels neighbors, Hamas is doomed. And all those countries know that attacking Israel would be suicidal (either via Israeli nukes or massive conventional bombing by USA).
Israel will probably use this to try to get the USA to bomb Iran. I expect lotsa news stories about Iran's support for Hamas in the coming weeks, and maybe even a false-flag attack. Be very skeptical of news stories inciting the US public against Iran.
Both Israel and Palestine have a right to exist, but the way Israel has been maintaining Palestinians in Gaza was like adding more heat to an already over capacity pressure cooker, and what we saw in the Hamas attacks was the lid finally blowing off. It was bound to happen, and I believe Israel with the support of the US took advantage of the situation under the faulty assumption that the Palestinians in Gaza had no real ability to exact any consequences for what was being done to them.
That said, given the breadth and scale of this attack, and the failure to not see this coming should signal the beginning of the end for Netanyahu.
Meanwhile, the right is so busy attacking Biden for political gain I have yet to hear any proposals from the Great Defenders of Israel as to how the situation can be alleviated or even Israel can be helped. But governance has never been their thing, only power. Just like with 9/11, this is what can happen when you are so focused on power rather than governing.
"Both Israel and Palestine have a right to exist"
The problem is there is no "Palestine". In fact using that title (Palestine) among many Israelis is tantamount to sedition or disloyalty. There is no equivalency. Israel has a functioning economy (albeit propped up by the USA), the Palestinians for the most part live in squalor with only what Israel will allow them to have. I feel for the civilians in Israel but the fact is they have been willing to go along with the treatment of the Palestinians for decades. We saw massive protests recently when Bibi tried to shit can the court system, but no protests when it comes to the Apartheid policies of almost every government there for 50 years. As Maha points out the finger pointing has begun, it's Biden's fault for releasing sanctioned oil income from South Korea, he's weak on terror, same old right-wing bullshit. Funny it only took two weeks (Iran got the cash less than 2 weeks ago) to organize the most effective strike on Israel in decades, it’s preposterous. But watch the GQP and corporate media run with that talking point, they have already started. I hope Biden’s PR team steps up to the plate because this is going to be a shit storm, past practice makes me not assured. If anything good comes from this, hopefully the democrats will use the inevitable call for more guns to Israel (Bibi was on the phone today asking Biden for $$$) as reinforcement for the call to keep arming the Ukrainians. Ukraine is fighting a righteous war against a homicidal war criminal who has invaded their country for the purpose of stealing land and has killed thousands of innocent civilians. Israel’s fight against Hamas is not even close to being the same, they are fighting the people who’s land they have stole, it’s the opposite of Ukraine. I would argue the entire Israeli conflict is self inflicted.
I think of Israelis who keep putting Bibi in power just like I feel for the Texan's who keep re-electing Greg Abbott!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ph2OAD2jNg
Revisiting 2009 and 2015:
"Israelis Watch Bombs Drop on Gaza From Front-Row Seats"
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/world/middleeast/israelis-watch-bombs-drop-on-gaza-from-front-row-seats.html
When war was a spectator sport in the southern part of the Apartheid state, it was an awful lot more fun.
I am sorry but I do not think both sides have the same right to exist. One side is a fiction, created with a impetus of guilt, created by robbing another group of their land. This robbery has created a pus-filled sore that will exist for the next for the next fifty years or until one side is obliterated.