I agree with what Greg Sargent says here regarding President Zelensky’s address to Congress today:
Zelensky reiterated his call for the United States and its allies to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and again demanded new shipments of fighter jets, which the administration has been reluctant to deliver.
This is already being portrayed as an effort to shame Biden into plunging deeper into the conflict. But in a way, both men are right.
Zelensky is unquestionably right that the United States and its allies could do more. Yet Biden is also right to be proceeding with extreme caution, and media coverage that obscures the complexities of that calculus is not exactly enhancing the long term prospects for humanity.
Regarding the fighter jets, as I understand it, the hang up seems to be how to get the jets into Ukraine and into the hands of Ukrainians without involving NATO pilots. This doesn’t seem to me to be an unsurmountable obstacle, but maybe there’s something I’m not seeing. U.S. military people have been arguing that Ukraine doesn’t really need the fighter jets, but Ukrainians insist they do, and I wish they could have them.
Greg Sargent quotes Sen. Chris Murphy saying “A no-fly zone is the United States declaring war against Russia.” Right; the no-fly zone can’t be enforced by the U.S. or a European country without risking escalation of war. But if the no-fly zone is being enforced by Ukrainians, why would that be true? Why would providing jets for Ukrainian pilots to fly be a different magnitude of help than providing anti-tank weapons for Ukrainians to fire? Help me out with this one, please.
Sargent continues,
Here’s the larger context. At a time when the United States and its allies are attempting a fiendishly difficult balance — between aiding Ukraine and inflicting sanctions on Russia without provoking World War III — the pressure on Biden to overreach is intense from the media, from Republicans and from certain foreign policy voices.
From the media, President Biden is being peppered with questions about the no-fly zone, even though the answer is always the same, that we don’t want World War III. Sargent continues,
In some cases, questions echo GOP talking points: One reporter asked whether Biden is “showing enough strength against Putin.” Similarly, a New York Times piece intoned that if Biden doesn’t honor Zelensky’s demands, it could open him up to GOP charges that he’s “soft on Russia” and treated that argument respectfully.
This sort of thing lets Republicans get away with calling for more “toughness” without accounting for the obvious world-historical downside risks of too much “toughness.” This effectively launders bad-faith posturing and confuses the debate with simplistic framing rather than illuminating its complexities and trade-offs.
It’s cheap and easy to thump your chest and declare you’d be tougher on Putin when you’re not the one making the decisions, and you’re not the one who’d be blamed if Europe and then the world is dragged into a world war. And, of course, cheap and easy is what Republicans do.
Waldman goes on to quote a historian who notes that younger people don’t remember the Cold War. Putin is “a madman,” the historian says, and no one should assume he wouldn’t resort to nukes if backed into a corner. So let’s not assume that.
There is also talk that Putin has asked China for more weapons. China has denied this, but of course nobody believes China. I’d be a tad surprised if Xi Jinping agrees to giving Russia military aid, because Xi Jinping seems mostly concerned about making China the world’s biggest economic power. And how much does China need Russia? Well, okay, it needs Russian oil. China would be much less vulnerable than Russia to the effects of sanctions, but I doubt Xi Jinping wants to risk losing business from Europe and the U.S. just the same. But anything could happen.
Peace talks between Russians and Ukrainians are centering on a 15-point plan. As I understand it, the plan thus far calls for Ukraine to promise not to join NATO and be officially neutral between Russia and the West. The deal calls for Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join NATO or host foreign military bases or weapons. In exchange, Moscow would declare a ceasefire and withdraw. Ukraine would also have to accept limitations on its own defense forces but could seek protection from allies such as the US, UK and Turkey.
Ukraine has experience with how much such guarantees are worth. Per the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, Russia was supposed to leave Ukraine alone. I wouldn’t accept this if I were Ukraine, but then I’m not the one being bombarded right now.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says sanctions will not be lifted until there is an irreversable Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. A cease fire alone won’t do it.
He insisted that U.S. sanctions against Russia are “not designed to be permanent,” and that they could “go away” if Russia should change its behavior. But he said any Russian pullback would have to be, “in effect, irreversible,” so that “this can’t happen again, that Russia won’t pick up and do exactly what it’s doing in a year or two years or three years.”
Probably the war in Ukraine won’t end anytime soon.
Volodymyr Zelensky
Right; the no-fly zone can’t be enforced by the U.S. or a European country without risking escalation of war. But if the no-fly zone is being enforced by Ukrainians, why would that be true?
Not a disagreement, just an explanation: Implementing a no-fly zone would require taking out Russian surface-to-air batteries. Most of those are inside Russia. What Ukraine needs is the capacity to stop Russian bombers flying over Ukraine. The hand-held Stinger missiles do not have the range to do that but other SAM systems do and it seems likely that the US and NATO countries are starting to provide some of that capability.
Ukraine has experience with how much such guarantees are worth. Per the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, Russia was supposed to leave Ukraine alone.
The United States and the United Kingdom were also signatories to the Budapest Memoranum along with Russia. Remember the Iran Nuke Agreement for a reference point on keeping agreements.
When Putin's invasion started, it was not just the Russians who believed that Ukraine would get rolled over in a few days. Our government had the same belief which is why we have been seemingly inconsistent and playing catch-up. I also remember watching MSNBC coverage on the 1st or 2nd day of the invasion and screaming at the tv when an MSNBC 'journalist' stated that the Ukrainian government was making a mistake and getting its citizens unnecessarily killed by not surrendering Mariupol immediately.
The courage and tenacity of the Ukrainian people is beyond admirable. Second-guessing the steps that Biden and our government have taken are easy for armchair generals on the corporate media shows but mostly ridiculous. When watching 'analysts' on tv, keep in mind that 'Colonels' are forced to retire after being passed over for promotion twice. That accounts for 90% of the retired colonels with another 5%+ being those with enough awareness to retire after the first time they were passed over.
Not an original idea, but China will help Russia only to the extent that it keeps Russia in the game, letting Russia wear itself out. It's to China's advantage to play "Lets You and Him Fight"
Doug,
You beat me to the point I was going to make. And so, I tip my cap…
I'll take a different angle, then.
I cannot express to you folks just how impressed I am with Ukraine's President.
Today, Zelensky and his speechwriters – if he uses any, that is – tugged on every heart-string and and fluffed any flagging patriotic pride part of a person's ego. The before/after video was as close to perfection as I can imagine.
His courage to not bolt the country if he heard that a Russian tank was so much as was rumoured to be put in "Drive-ski" (a retreat, Afghan Style!) and stay, is amazing. And a perfect thing to rally people around. And not just Ukes, but ALL freedom-loving people!
Zelensky has been placed by fortune, for good or ill, as the fulcrum point of determining the future: And not just to him, but also all of us!
Zekensky's the pivotal character in this play about Good v. Evil/2022 – 2023?2024?2025?…
"Good," defined by me as democratic countries. and "Evil," as being Autocratic ones.
With our help, if he and Ukraine can hold out until such time as the Russian people wake-up and find out about what Vlad and his band of Kleptocratic sociopaths have been doing to Ukrainians in their home country, it will be, at the very least, a moral victory for "democracy."
I could write a monstrously long word-turd on the war between "democracies" and "autocracies!". But you all know that we're in it. And we're also in World War Three. World War Three will go down as the battle between those two.
World War Four? I don't know. Rats v. Insects?
But I'm pooped. And so, I'll spare you all.
Putin is failing. He knows this – so he's got to change the way things are evolving. He'd like a swift military victory, but that's not in the cards. The closer Putin gets to 'victory' as defined by control of territory, the more certain it is that the Ukranian army will transistion to a disjointed (not centalized) guerilla force. If that force can be resupplied, there will be a steady stream of body bags back to Russia – even after Putin says, "Mission Accomplished!" That's defeat, even if you have leveled Kiev and installed a pro-Russian government.
Putin wants Europe and the US to back off and 'give' Ukraine to Russia. That means intimidating Biden into backing down and convincing NATO that Ukraine is not worth a nuclear war. (Putin does not want a nuclear war but he wants everyone to think he's willing to fire ICBMs on DC.) But Putin needs an excuse to hang the threat on – something the US does that's so aggressive and offensive that Putin can put his hand on the nuclear gun and convince everyone he's gonna draw.
Biden knows that the current trajectory will bring down Putin. So providing the 'incident' which provides Putin the excuse to reach for the nuclear switch is bad strategy. This means providing enough weapons to bleed the Russian army without involving NATO or the US so directly that Putin can claim he's been fouled. IMO, Biden knows Putin desparately needs that excuse.
Geopolitical calculus leaves out the factor of human misery. Ukraine is suffering. Entire villlages are gone – the damage to major cities from shelling is huge. Under the rubble are the bodies of innocent people. Zelensky wants the tools to hand Putin a swift and devastaing military defeat. As in now. Neither Zelinski nor Biden is wrong. They are on the same side but their strategic outlooks are different.
I lean towards subterfuge to get Z more military aid sooner. Find a non-NATO country that can receive Migs from the NATO countries that have some – planes that the Ukranian pilots can fly from that neutral country to Ukraine. Do it in such secrecy that Russia won't quite know how the planes wound up in Zalinski's force. But I don't downplay the risk – I place a high value on civilian lives.
I don't know if anyone in power in Russia has the balls to tell Putin he screwed the pooch and needs to step down. That's the best-case scenario – Putin 'retires' to spend time with his family and his successor pulls all troops out of Ukraine with assurances of a return to normacy that's consistant with the degree that Russia liberates the media, opens up to free and fair elections and joins the new century.
That seems unlikely but Russia is in for a world of hurt for a long time the way things are going. That's not what I want for the Russian people who have been misled for decades and have no idea of what's true.
Rather than focusing on fighter jets, which are expensive and problematic in many ways, I’m impressed with the flood of cheaper, highly effective weapons, thousands of volunteers, and guerilla tactics which have done much to slow the Russian advance.
It’s not for nothing that St Javelin is a popular meme in the Ukraine. These highly effective anti-tank missiles are easy to use, and are designed to fall from the sky, targeting the most vulnerable part of a tank – its roof/hatch – much like the javelins launched thousands of years ago by Roman or Greek soldiers. Then there’s the armed drones, from the US and Turkey. Aircraft enforcing a no-fly zone would spare the civilian deaths, but these other weapons are doing wonders to blunt the invasion.
With the Russians leveling Ukrainian cities and murdering children and anyone that moves, it’s just a matter of time before the nothing-left-to-lose Ukrainians take the fight into Russia itself, a Slav on Slav bloodbath, hell unleashed. This may be what it will take for Russians to wake up and throw off their corrupt leadership.
This war has many lessons about how extreme wealth is a curse. After reorganizing the Soviet Union into his personal kleptocratic pyramid, becoming one of the richest and powerful men in the world, Putin has no plans to give this up, and will not go away peacefully. I’ve read that 3% of the Russian population controls 90% of the wealth. Putin is completely blinded by this and uncaring to the suffering he’s caused.
At home, Tucker Carlson is a spoiled brat, raised in affluent La Jolla, California, and an heir to the Swanson Frozen Food empire. His famous whine, “Why Should I Care?” is what he (and other conservatives) have been saying all his entitled life. He has no qualms about projecting an “I’m Confused” schtick on-air as a way to rally/confuse others around his infantile refusal to grow up.
Finally, I like what Anne Applebaum says, that we should be thinking about this war entirely differently. “Change the rules of the game, we have to stop being reactive”. She starts about 1:40 into the video.
Another star on Russian TV: Madison Cawthorn
It's official, RT = FOX, the Kremlin mouthpiece:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/18/sergei-lavrov-praises-fox-news-coverage-ukraine
I've been yelling "drones" at my tv for a long times and yesterday they finally listed those among the things they are supplying. I hope the delivery started today because the Ukrainian s can't wait for weeks for the aid.
Couldn't the Ukrainian pilots ride the train to Poland or wherever and just take the planes? Surely there is a way…
You all should make sure to watch Arnie's video to the Russian people.
Beautiful. Thank you Arnie!
BTW, as a juxtaposition with other mainstream GOP thought: the Klassy klown klub strikes again!
https://www.politicususa.com/2022/03/18/chaos-in-ohio-as-fight-nearly-breaks-out-between-gop-senate-candidates.html
The fightin’ words was telling a Vet “you have never worked in the private sector!”
OT, Star Trek: Discovery, in its season finale, makes Stacey Abrams President of United Earth, riling conservatives. Completely Awesome.