I just voted for Bernie Sanders in the Missouri primary, so he’ll get one vote, at least.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that if Joe Biden sweeps today’s primaires as predicted, Bernie Sanders will not stay in the race much longer. He’ll stick around for the last debate on March 15, but if there isn’t some sign that voting patterns can turn around, there’s not much point in going on. And the rest of the March primaries are not in friendly territory for him.
Of course, there’s always a chance Sanders will do better than expected today and the rest of March. He might decide to keep going to the end of April, as some big northeastern states (New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut) are voting then, but he lost those states in 2016 (Connecticut only by a hair, but it was still a loss). If the young folks continue to not bother to vote, however, for all practical purposes the nomination will be decided very soon, and the nominee will be Joe Biden, like it or not. I am not at all happy about that, but it has to be said that so far Biden is showing deep strength with African American and suburban voters, which are the two most critical groups for a Dem victory in November. And as long as Gen Z and younger millennial voters can’t be counted on to show up, they don’t get a say.
In 2016 Sanders wasn’t completely out of it mathematically (not counting superdelegates) until after the California primary in June. After losing California he knew he had no shot at the nomination, but he wanted his people to have a say in the party platform and waited to concede until after the first ballot. If the Democrats offer Sanders a role in the convention and a say in the platform, he might not hang on to the end this time but shift to campaigning against Trump on Biden’s behalf. Sanders’s devotees will go nuts, but Sanders himself is, shall we say, more mature.
This year the superdelegates won’t be voting on the first ballot, which theoretically could make a difference if nobody gets the 1,991 pledged delegates needed to win the nomination outright. But unless voting patterns change, Biden’s going to have those delegates before the convention, and the superdelegates won’t vote.
Mandatory Credit: Photo by Elise Amendola/AP/Shutterstock (10551224k)
Former Vice President Joe Biden, left, embraces Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., during a Democratic presidential primary debate, hosted by ABC News, Apple News, and WMUR-TV at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H
Election 2020 Debate, Manchester, USA – 07 Feb 2020
It looks doubtful Indiana will get a chance to vote for Bernie, which is not good news. His candidacy has always been more inspirational than practical, but even now he has a significant number of delegates, and the Democratic party won't easily dismiss his ideas.
I've been interested in Bernie for years, and used to DVR Thom Hartmann's show on FSTV just to watch the Brunch With Bernie segment. He represents something of a miracle in our politics; a resurgence of the left.
We can hope Bernie's movement will evolve into one that does what Bernie's does, but better. His message is somewhat muddled and overly confrontational in the context of US political history. He holds up Denmark and the Nordic model as something to emulate, but the Nordic model is associated with Social Democracy, not Democratic Socialism. The shade of difference puts Democratic Socialism closer to the failed centrally planned economies of the 20th century than the Nordic model. If only he had called himself a Social Democrat and not praised social authoritarians …
Nothing against Bernie but it is interesting to me that our only choices for president are old white men. Something wrong with this picture.