These Republican senators are at the ends of their terms; or, in the cases of Martha McSally and Kelly Lynn Loeffler, finishing up vacated terms to which they were appointed by their governors. Red asterisks indicate senators considered by at least some pundits to be vulnerable. Two asterisks means the nerds at FiveThirtyEight think they’re vulnerable. The “retiree” seats are expected to remain Republican.
- Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee) (retiring)
- Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virginia)
- Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana)
- Susan Collins (R-Maine) **
- John Cornyn (R-Texas) *
- Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas)
- Steve Daines (R-Montana)
- Mike Enzi (R-Wyoming) (retiring)
- Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) **
- Cory Gardner (R-Colorado) **
- Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina)
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Mississippi)
- James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma)
- Kelly Lynn Loeffler (R-Georgia)
- Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky)
- Martha McSally (R-Arizona) **
- David Perdue (R-GA) *
- Jim Risch (R-Idaho)
- Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) (retiring)
- Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota)
- Ben Sasse (R-Nebraska)
- Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska)
- Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) **
I’d like to believe that some of these, um, persons not considered vulnerable could still lose in upsets. Please don’t give up on defeating Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham in particular.
Democrats need to flip four seats to re-take the majority. This is not impossible, but it’s going to be a fight. On the plus side, only twelve Democratic incumbents are defending their seats. One Democratic senator, Tom Udall of New Mexico, is retiring, but his seat is considered “safe” for Democrats.
The vulnerable seats: Doug Jones of Alabama is hanging by a thread. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Tina Smith of Minnesota are “likely” but not “safe” to win another term. Gary Peters of Michigan may be in a close fight. The remaining Democrats up for re-election are considered “safe.”
There’s not much in the way of current polling in Senate races, although one January poll has Democrat Mark Kelly four points ahead of Martha McSally.
I’m posting this because I hope recent events have driven home to Dem and leftie voters that just defeating Trump is not enough. Even if we defeat Trump in November, if the Senate remains in Republican hands we’re still in big trouble, and none of the reforms we desperately need will become law. Especially if you live in a state with a contested Senate seat, see what you can do to help. We can do this.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., joined from left by Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., and Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, dismisses the impeachment process against President Donald Trump saying, “I’m not an impartial juror. This is a political process,” as he meets with reporters at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2019. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
I don't live in any of the contested states – but I know where a few bucks might make a difference.
I’m posting this because I hope recent events have driven home to Dem and leftie voters that just defeating Trump is not enough. Even if we defeat Trump in November, if the Senate remains in Republican hands we’re still in big trouble, and none of the reforms we desperately need will become law.
For me it’s not about any reforms. This system is beyond reform. It’s about sending Trump and his toadies to jail. Anything else is gravy.
Since I’m blessed to be in a blue state, I’ve decided that my top priority is keeping my recently turned-blue district permanently blue, now represented by an up and rising freshman Katie Porter, former UCI law professor and EW protoge.
Next priority is to the Dem Senate something or other Committee, the fundraising arm for a Democratic Senate. I got a mailing from Chuck Schumer some months ago, where he explained why early money is so important – which is contra to how people typically donate.
What’s missing from this scheme is any real attention to the top office. The Koch Brothers realized the same thing – that their money was better spent on many smaller cheaper campaigns than putting all their chips on the top square.
An MSNBC political analyst (I didn't catch her name) made an interesting point just after the vote to stop Trump's impeachment trial. It struck her as a reminder of "jury nullification" in the Jim Crow South that let white racists get away with hate crimes. So far I can't find a study, but if the idea takes hold it's going to make a difference in most or all 2020 elections. Democrats would be wise to make it an issue.
The Emmett Till trial is a perfect example of jury nullification:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmett_Till
In this case the jury nullified themselves, essentially, to acquit two obviously guilty men. After the trial, safe from prosecution, they were paid money for their story by Look magazine, in which they gloried in their admission that they killed Till.
This is but one of many, and the Senate trial of Trump reminded me of that.
It was wrong, and I believe OJ was guilty, but this is why some black folk cheered when he was acquitted, not because of the acquittal, as much as it was seen as a form of "payback" for the decades of fixed trials by all white juries. This trial is a lot like that.
For this reason I don't think this trial will be forgotten, and people are looking forward to the opportunity to cheer when Trump is booted out.
That part of our history isn't completely over. I don't mean to pick on Indiana, there's this kind of thing in a lot of rural places, but here's an example:
https://www.google.com/maps/place/US-421+%26+IN-8,+La+Crosse,+IN+46348/@41.3173112,-86.8935571,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x88117f4d71f4cb87:0x9d5aa1afa617fa91!8m2!3d41.3173112!4d-86.891363?hl=en
Kruger's Korner Klub – subtle, huh?
Madam I'm Adam is said to have been the first palindrome. We have not had a number date palindrome day in over 900 years. Well today is that rare lucky day.
We need a rare lucky event in November. A political tidal wave which flushes the Senate scum free. Donate early. Get organized so you can give support where and when you can.
The rules have changed. Since Democrats are the only ones that seem to be able to read, write, and think of late I guess we get to write the history of this impeachment farce. That is good since the old rule is that the victor got to write the history. Too bad they gave up on intellectually based skills, those Republicans. Even if they try to hire somebody they don't know a good one from a bad one anymore.
I have been informed that -a man a plan a canal Panama -may be the longest palindrome ever created.
Coming later this week:
tRUMP UNCHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAINED!!!!!
Thanks fer nuttin' RepubliKKKLANS!!!?!!!!!!
Like Smaug in the mountain, there is no dragon without a soft spot.
There will be accountability if we create it.
If the D's do regain the Senate they must eliminate the filibuster or make it that people actually have to stand and talk (Texas rules cannot lean on chair or podium) or nothing will be done. While every vote lowers the level for next cycle ( first vote to break filibuster 60 next one 57 then 54)
Follow pattern of Virginia D's who after years of hearings and debate, on guns, did NOT fall into trap that would delay action but just fired up the locomotive and headed down the track running over thuglicans. So should any D senate.
Either mass impeachment of judiciary our twice as many seats created on every level then there are thuglican judges. scotus would go to 19 and so on down the scale.
Have AG and homeland security deckare the NRA and Federalist society subversivee orgs and all members placed on do not fly list with dramatically increased oversight and investigation.
No sympathy. Do not let "instititionalist" defend the indfensible on procedural grounds. Those standards are broken and gone.