Spent the day playing with my grandson. I’m a little tired to write anything, but until tomorrow be sure to see this article by Josh Marshall that explains how misinformed people are stoking the flames of paranoia.
The Mahablog
Politics. Society. Group Therapy.
Josh Marshall is very savvy and a good communicator. He nails down stuff I didn’t understand about the terminology.
Trump is thrashing around – his followers are desperate to believe so they will grasp at any straw. But guys, the WSJ and FOX News despise Clinton. The polls are real. The only speculative number is how many republicans (as a percent) will sit out the election. And will it shift the Senate. Trump is toast and all but the most willfully blind can see it.
It does not take much of a sample of verbal nonsense for one who has studied statistics to estimate that the person writing or speaking has no knowledge of what they are talking about. Most people doing polls are quite skilled and do not make elementary mistakes. Oversampling of one category would be an elementary mistake.Â
I do understand a bit about magical thinking. It is common in preschoolers and usually disappears as one ages. This is an exception, although some elders do tend to regress and start thinking like very young children again.Â
I did polling for a conservative-leaning pollster part-time for a year, and what Josh said is entirely true. I know, because we did a number of these types of polls for Republicans – as well as horrible “push-polls.”
As for the rubes in th conservative alternative universe, in “1984,” they only had “Two-minute hates.”
Now, with Rushba the Hutt, among other Reich-Wing radio hosts, (Dumb)Fux “news,” Drudge, twitter, e-mails, etc, those “Two Minute Hates” are 24 X 7 X 365.
Also too – Conservative media puts the “dope,” in ‘dopamine!’
And that’s the only thing their base needs to live.
See Donald.
See Donald crash and burn.
Crash, Donald, crash.
Burn, Donald, burn.
All over. So sad.
See Donald blame.
Blame, Donald, blame.
See Donald blame the GOP.
See Donald blame the media.
See Donald plot revenge.
Plot, Donald, plot.
Burn, Donald, burn.
Doug,
Now try your hand at “Jump On Trump!”
Oh, and “FOX It Sucks.”
I stand by what I said. Trump on polling and stats is an idiot. His critical guy is lacking in skills and off anything. I also stand by my statement on magical thinking. It has some serious science behind it. Please give it some consideration. I am old but I still try to learn.  I am only here for a little while. We need younger better voices than me. Â