On the optimistic side of things, Brian Beutler thinks that Republican leaders might be realizing they are trapped. However, they’re still hoping to draw the President into some kind of negotiation, which means they aren’t really facing reality yet.
I think Paul Krugman’s assessment is about right —
Just last week we had Paul Ryan blithely assuring National Review that “nobody believes†that Obama will refuse to make concessions over the debt ceiling, and citing examples from the past that anyone who has actually been following the issue knows have no relevance to what’s happening now.
In other words, GOP leaders fundamentally misjudged the situation (and Obama’s incentives). And now they have backed themselves into a position where they don’t know how to back down — they have to extract concessions or they’ll have been “disrespected,†in a situation where Obama simply can’t make any concessions without destroying his own credibility and betraying the fundamental norms of governance.
Krugman says that as the debt limit date draws near, markets and going to freak out. And it is widely assumed this will cause House Republicans to blink.
But given their behavior so far, why would you believe this? I can easily see Ted Cruz making a speech declaring that the freakout is all Obama’s fault, and that what the markets really fear is socialism or something — and the base believing it.
My bet now is that we actually do go over the line for a day or two. And what ends the immediate crisis is not Republican action but a decision by Obama to declare himself not bound by the debt ceiling. He can’t even hint at this possibility until the thing actually happens, because he has to keep the focus on the Republicans, and he has to make them demonstrate their utter irresponsibility before he can take any extraordinary action.
I think the only way we can avoid passing the default date is if the House Republicans capitulate, and I don’t see them doing that.
To the White House, the shutdown/debt ceiling fight is quite simple, and quite radical: Republicans are trying to create a new, deeply undemocratic pathway through which a minority party that lost the last election can enact an agenda that would never pass the normal legislative process. It’s nothing less than an effort to use the threat of a financial crisis to nullify the results of the last election. And the White House isn’t going to let it happen.
“might be realizing they are trapped. However”
In a normal world Shame would have worked. The difference now is shame can exist without truth. Partisan law gives way to anarchy, what sells better than order? Anarchy. No end game in sight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrQ1BFRKr8Y
I realize that I make some pretty stupid comments at times. But if ever post a comment like the one linked to below I hope someone here at the Mahablog would care enough about me to call me aside and offer me a clue.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/03/aggressive-blunderers/?comments#permid=10159209
I really don’t see how this all ends. We’re sure to plow on into default, particularly since it now sounds like Obama sees a stunt like the platinum coin as a way to save the Nutjobs from their own medicine. But after they’ve driven us all into the ditch, we’ll all be in the ditch, and, I’m very afraid, many of them will be happy about being in the ditch, and gleeful at what they’ve done. Half of them will blame Obama for it, and actually believe it. And even if almost all the national electorate and the media turn against them, the Nutjobs have done such a good job of building their own bubble universe, and gerrymandered districts they could only lose to nuttier candidates, so will they care? Or even notice? How do we break their hold on the House, because they won’t change, even if they bring the world down on their heads. They dream of Apocalypse as a good thing!
Let’s call it what it is:
The House and Senate Teabagging cuckoo’s, are trying to pull a coup.
And the President should call them out on it. He should us the word, “coup.”
And I wish he’d call them “cuckoo’s,” too.
And especially Cruz and his pal, Lee, in the Senate – and the usual suspect in the House.
They’ve tried to repeal PPACA – aka: Obamacare – 40+ times, and couldn’t succeed. So now they’re trying to inflict their will on the country outside of the legal process.
And what is that, other than a “coup?”
Swami,
That sounded exactly like a parrot whose owner leaves FOX on all day and all night, so the bird has company.
But in this case, Polly IS the cracker!
I read it. My Onion/satire detector did not go off. The reply beneath it sounded as though at least one sane person was still trying to help. I work to rescue and foster dogs and cats. When an animal acts crazy, it is usually from fear, at least in my experience. I can’t say what that guy’s problem is. But I think some time alone where he could not hear other dogs barking and upsetting him might help.
I think somebody screwed up big time. Just a slight miscalculation on the baggers part I’d guess.
It reminds me of when I was a kid.. There was a new housing development being built by where I lived and the builders bulldozed the woods into a mountain of trees. The development project fell into abandonment for several years after clearing the land and during that time us children would play army among the piles of trees. It was an ideal playground for playing army. The pile of trees formed little caves perfect to take up defensive positions for machine gun nests, bunkers or pill boxes. The Japanese defenders of Okinawa couldn’t asked for a more ideal defensive position.
One day while playing Army I found a little cave among the trees and crawled into it. What I encountered upon entering the cave was a Opossum who already had laid claim to cave and I found myself in a situation where the Opossum had no means of retreat or escape.
Opossums are normally non aggressive and when you encounter them they just go about their business and treat you like you don’t exist. They just scurry away. But Opossums can also snarl and hiss when the situation calls for it. Believe me.
Swami,
So, what’d you do?
“Play possum?”
Respect must be earned. These folks earned disrespect, and they got it.
REPUBLICANS: “Stop talking long enough to learn something useful.”
No, Gulag…It didn’t take me long to understand my situation. I booked. The Opossum was like Obama is now…He wasn’t going to negotiate.
This should cheer everyone up. We need some many more like this woman.
For added fun, while you’re viewing this, imagine what a debate between her and Sarah Palin might be like. Alas, the baggers would be certain that Sarah won, but anyway, for your enjoyment …
http://youtu.be/JTxWMkW8s_c
My guess is that early next week the TP jihadists are going to look for a scapegoat. Obamacare isn’t repealed – the one-year delay isn’t even under discussion. The Senate and White House are willing to let the shutdown continue and beat republicans to death in the polls.
Since the tea Party will decide a) it has to be somebody’s fault and b) it’s not the fault of the hostage strategy, then obviously Boehner is to blame for not being scarey enough. The drive to unseat Boehner will start in earnest.
Will Boehner realize that he’s got nothing to lose by sending to the Senate bills that are clean – CR and debt hike with a declaration of a future strategy to ‘deal’ to the middle, ditching the Tea Party completely. Maybe this is absurd, but if my prediction is right and the Tea Party zombies march on Boehner, will he surrender the Speakership? And if not, what option will he have other than a bargain with Pelosi?
Doug — I think you could be right. Boehner is toast no matter what happens.
goatherd,
I’m not sure what the consequences would be of a Warren v. Palin debate.
I’m not even sure there could ever be one.
I don’t remember my HS Physics too well, but I seem to remember that when matter meets anti-matter, there’s an explosion – not a debate.
Good point, cundgulag.
I am wrestling with the ireality that we have reached a level of toxicity that makes any rational discourse impossible. It’s just pure spectacle. Now where’s that old Guy Debord book?
Why would Boehner be toast? Because he couldn’t keep the teabagger faction under his thumb or he couldn’t satisfy the teabaggers demands?
In other words who is going to give him the heave -ho…the radicals or the moderates.