Some analyses of yesterday’s vote in New Hampshire. John Judis, The New Republic:
Clinton is still doing well among women (particularly older and married women), traditional Democrats, voters over 40, and among lower-middle income white voters without college degrees who are worried about the economy. Obama is doing fabulously among the young and very well among independents and upscale Independents. Both of these can also be important blocs for a Democrat to win in the fall.
Here are the groups in which Obama enjoyed a significant margin over Clinton: men, young voters (18-24), voters making more than $50,000, voters with post-graduate education (a good indication of professionals), independents, first time voters, voters without religious affiliation, men without children and single men, voters who said they were getting ahead financially, voters who thought the war in Iraq was the most important issue, who wanted change, and who wanted someone who could unite the country.
Here are Clinton’s groups: women, particularly married women, voters over 40, voters making less than $50,000, voters without a college degree, union voters, Democrats, Catholics (an important constituency for the Democrats), people very worried about the economy, voters who thought the economy was most important, voters who valued experience, and voters who evaluated candidates on whether they “care about people like me.”
I think this suggests Obama would be the far stronger candidate in a general election.
Via Skippy — Jeff Fecke at Shakesville speculates that the swing to Hillary among older women — which is what got her the last minute majority — was a backlash to MSM misogyny. He might be right.
Update: Shamanic is more cheerful than I am.
Update 2: The BooMan crunches numbers.
MSM tells me that Dem voters in the Iowa caucus’ was up 91%. Now we are seeing participation in the N.H. primary was up something over 27%.
Is this an indicator of how dissatisfied the electorate is over the goings-on in Washington? Will there be a Dem landslide of record proportions?
Will there be a Dem landslide of record proportions?
I make no predictions. I fear that if Clinton is the nominee the count will be close, meaning we’ll lose.
I do not think that the primary vote in NH tells us anything except that the pole takers and the media were wrong. I resent the constant efforts by much of the tv reporting to try to make something major out of just about nothing. It would not surprise me to hear one of those blowhards claim that a candidates preference for Dunkin Donuts
coffee over Starbucks is an indication that he or she will win the nomination and election.
What I do not like about the Obama campaign is that it is about style and not substance. Of course that attracts many people who do not care to be bothered about the details. I am all for meaningful change – but change just for change sake – a pretty flimsy platform on which to stake a campaign.
I am not saying which candidate I prefer as I have little to no ability to influence the outcome of the nomination process. I just hope that the person nominated has the intelligence and intestinal fortitude to understand the seriousness of the job. The current inhabitant of the White House is an empty shirt who has caused serious damage to the country and the world. We need real leadership and that should be the main issue in the primary campaign. Not sermons about change, change, change, about race or gender, nor about alleged tears in eyes, past behavior of spouses, or the like. We need to have the campaign address the serious issues – health care, the economy, the endless war on terror that erodes our constitution and our national treasure, poverty, and the like. Enough of the meaningless speaches about nothing substance, not style please. This is not a contest about who is a better preacher.
To the contrary, I fear that if Obama is the nominee we will be clobbered by the GOP.
Do you really think the right wing’s excitement about Obama is because they’re so happy we have a winning candidate? No.
Only Hillary will be able to stand up to a GOP hawk–esp. if Bush continues the escalation against Iran, followed by an attack, which is what he seems to be promoting right now…
Exhibit A: He’s in Israel, discussing their attack plans on Iran. Exhibit B: the exaggerated skirmish with Iranian ships in the Persian Gulf 2 days ago.
(I smell sulphur.)
“I think this suggests Obama would be the far stronger candidate in a general election.” ???
There’s a question of who voted for Obama in Iowa, one of why the repubs so want him to be the candidate, and one of why “progressives” see him as their candidate when working class people don’t.
Only Hillary will be able to stand up to a GOP hawk–esp. if Bush continues the escalation against Iran, followed by an attack, which is what he seems to be promoting right now…
Jeez, dude, you’ve got to be a troll. That’s so 2005. Catch up. Bush may attack Iran, but I don’t see the American people supporting it.
There’s a question of who voted for Obama in Iowa, one of why the repubs so want him to be the candidate, and one of why “progressives†see him as their candidate when working class people don’t.
I think the repubs want Hillary to be the candidate. They’ve been soft on Obama only because they weren’t taking him seriously.
As for the working class people — these are the same people who were persuaded to vote for Bush over Gore and Bush over Kerry, as I recall. They don’t always vote progressive.
I could not help but think that it was the “dissing” of Hillary in sexist ways that could of prompted a ” I’ll show you” hillary vote among women. the media should pay attention to the fact that when they unfairly diss any candidate voters can respond to their narrative . voting may now be no more than response to media than to politics
Agree with Maha about the Rs wanting Hillary. She is the most conservative of the Democratic candidates, and if the Rs are going to lose anyway in 2008 (not yet a forgone conclusion), she’s the D they’d want to install. She reminds me a great deal of the Rockefeller Republicans – who were moderate to liberal – from the 1960s. In fact, she (along with her parents) started out in life in this camp, and I don’t think she ever really left it, despite changing her party affiliation. She was on the cover of Forbes (or was it Fortune?) in a glowing article about how business hearts Hillary.
As for Obama, I hope he’s got plenty of Secret Service protection, because as his star rises, the far right is going to get out their knives, quite literally. This crowd takes any “uppity nigger” very seriously. I’ve read wingnuts say “negroes will riot” if Obama doesn’t win – already they’re pumping this garbage into the public mind space.
I think a Hillary/Obama ticket would be a knockout, and two barriers would be broken, at long last.
Why do I see Krauthammer, Kristol, Brooks, … on tv saying that the dems should not run Hillary, should run Obama? Brer Rabhit? Obama doesn’t even pretend to be progressive, so why the support? Whatever, a close primary strengthens the candidates and, by continuing, provides an alternative in case one of the candidates has a fatal flaw.
i’m no fan of hillary’s policies, but i too was getting sick of the obvious pile-on in the last few days by the chattering class.
that, plus the fact i like a good horse race, makes my heart giddy that clinton pulled it out, if only to confound tweety matthews and his ilk.
voting may now be no more than response to media than to politics
Good point.
Why do I see Krauthammer, Kristol, Brooks, … on tv saying that the dems should not run Hillary, should run Obama? Brer Rabhit?
I haven’t seen any of those guys on TV in, like, forever. I’ll take your word for it that that’s what they’re saying. All I know for sure is that most of the Republican nomination fight so far has been about which one of them would be toughest against the Hillary Monster. If Obama is the nominee they’re going to have to re-tool.
Obama doesn’t even pretend to be progressive, so why the support?
He pretends pretty well, actually. You can’t tell from his Senate record, of course. I see him as no more or less progressive than Clinton. Edwards is the only reliable progressive left standing, and he’s not going to get the nomination.
Whatever, a close primary strengthens the candidates and, by continuing, provides an alternative in case one of the candidates has a fatal flaw.
You’re right about that, so maybe I shouldn’t be so depressed about yesterday.
This is from Greg Sargent via TPM:
This is pretty rich. Last night, Matthews said: “I give her a lot of personal credit; I will never underestimate Hillary Clinton again.”
But by this morning Matthews had already forgotten his newfound respect for her. He said: “The reason she’s a U.S. Senator, the reason she’s a candidate for President, the reason she may be a front-runner, is her husband messed around. That’s how she got to be Senator from New York. We keep forgetting it. She didn’t win it on the merits…”
Why is this man even allowed on TV?
I worry about what happens if it ends up being Clinton vs McCain. So far, it seems that independents have been breaking democrat … and that indepentents who broke democrat have been breaking obama.
Speaking very, very generally, independents don’t tend to like clinton, but they do tend to like mccain.
So, once barack is out of the pool, will the indepents break back to mccain?
-me
From the beginning when this all started a year ago the defeatist in me saw Clinton as the most likely Democrat candidate to get the nomination – and in good Democratic fashion – the only Democrat candidate that the Republicans could really rally a significant amount of support to oppose! Therefore – just like 2004 & 2000 – we are going to be doomed talking about how evil and unethical Hillary and Bill (from here on out, “Billary”) are. To me it adds up to President Huckalberry – the Republicans have primed these 80 million Evangelicals on the meaningless cultural issues and now they are going to get stuck with Mike Huckabee! What a loony country this is.
Comment 15, I’m not that worried about McCain. He has had the tendency to say really frightening things, and this is what sunk his candidacy last summer. Recently he said that he envisioned us staying in Iraq for a hundred years. I think we should give the man a microphone, and buy him a couple of drinks…
moonbat is right, McCain is unstable. I doubt his luck will hold; first, people will remember how much he loves the Iraq War, and second, he’ll publicly melt down at least once. It’s as sure as fireflies in the summertime.
McCain does worry me.
The MSM keeps painting him as a hero because of his Vietnam prisioner history. I’m sorry, but I don’t see it that way. His war plane went down in a combat zone, he was tortured and imprisoned upon his capture. As cruel as this sounds, he is lucky his captors didn’t fillet him.
My fellow Americans say the strangest things, THEY are wild eyed suicidal monsters, yet WE travel the globe looking for monsters to slay with our Christian weapons like “hellfire missiles” and “predator” and “Reaper”remote controled war machines, spreading democracy and sunshine.
And while “they” have been fighting and killing as long as we can remember, we have been far more sucessful in the sheer numbers killed, especially if one counts the firebombings of Tokyo and Dresden, but I digress….(only the Russians under Stalin and the Chinese under Mao have been better killers)
In my office “pitre dish”, the boys all say really mean things about Mr. Bush (the guy they chastized me over regarding my unflatering bumpersticker RE: shrub). Yes, my brothers are comparing Mr. Bush to a certain part of the male anatomy, and another part shared by all. They blame him for everything from lying to get us into Iraq to the state of the economy, but get this: THEY ALL PLAN ON VOTING REPUBLICAN!
I am (and have been) quite outspoken, and am now regarded as a political expert (OMG!!) They asked which Republican I would vote for, so I said Ron Paul, but a really great man for the job is Bill Richardson. The response was “Who?” I explained that Julie-Annie is a fascist, McCain has “issues” due to his POW days, Huckabee is an ordained Baptist Minister and prone to double talk,, and Fred Thompson is , well , Fred Thompson.
They tell me that Obama is a “closet “Muslim, I said the constitution states “there shall be no religious test for public office”‘ which was met with a strange silence.
They all agree that we’ve all been screwed by the Bush team, but they are so disgusted by the Dems that they will vote Republican regardless.In their eyes,Hillary is dripping with venom, and Edwards is the feared and hated “trial Lawyer”
I have until November to sway them, and I think I’ll meet my goal of swaying them towards the left. I told them they are voting against their own interest with the Republicans, with the exception of Ron Paul.
A working man voting Republican is like a chicken voting for Col Sanders………
They tell me that Obama is a “closet “Muslim, I said the constitution states “there shall be no religious test for public officeâ€â€˜ which was met with a strange silence.
That’s the correct answer, although I think I would have said that’s a lie being spread by his political opponents, and how dumb do you have to be to believe crap like that?
Actually, I said what your response was exactly along with the reference to the constitution.(Except I said dumb ass)
I wish you could come hang with me for a week so you could see this freak show.One guy I work with will not allow his wife access to the family checkbook because of some biblical reference.(its in there somewhere….)
I don’t understand such medieval thinking in the age of space travel and lazers in the jungle.(plus my wife would strangle me in my sleep if I took the checkbook away, and rightfully so! My wife is my best friend and more.)
The groups who support Hillary are more likely to vote. I base this on my own children who are in the groups that are most likely to support Obama. Why would we want another inexperienced man? Haven’t we suffered enough? Does is bother you at all that Obama is the first person, according to Wolf Blitzer to use a teleprompter to give his two primary speeches? How so like Bush.