You must read John Dean’s analysis of the Bush Administration posted yesterday at FindLaw. Absolutely fascinating. And then after you’ve read it, come back here to discuss “What We Can Expect From Bush in the Future.”
Dean’s analysis explains why Bush’s continued failure is inevitable. However, Bush’s personality type demands that cannot fail, and demands that he remain the center of power and attention. He’s not going to be able to acknowledge his administration has failed and slink quietly into history. Then Dean asks,
As the 2006 midterm elections approach, this active/negative president can be expected to take further risks. If anyone doubts that Bush, Cheney, Rove and their confidants are planning an “October Surprise” to prevent the Republicans from losing control of Congress, then he or she has not been observing this presidency very closely.
What will that surprise be? It’s the most closely held secret of the Administration.
How risky will it be? Bush is a whatever-it-takes risk-taker, the consequences be damned.
Dean suggests three possibilities:
1. Dick Cheney might resign as Vice President and be replaced with someone with more star appeal, like Rudy Giuliani, Condi Rice, or John McCain. Cheney would hang around as a “senior adviser,” of course.
2. Bush might do something useful: “If he could achieve a Great Powers coalition (of Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and so on) presenting a united-front ‘no nukes’ stance to Iran, it would be his first diplomatic coup and a political triumph.” I don’t think he’s got it in him, but maybe national leaders would go along with the odious little toad for the sake of avoiding possibility #3, which is:
3. Attack Iran.
Dean suggests capturing Osama bin Laden as an outside possibility, although at this point I don’t believe that would help him much. A commenter thinks he might try to cancel the elections. Or, he might wait to see if the Dems do take over at least one house, and if they do, then he’ll attack Iran before the new Congress is sworn in.
Your thoughts?
I believe he / they will go for choice # 3; absolute insanity defence ….
I have choice #4; Bush resigns, Cheney becomes president-in-name, Wolfowitz is appointed vice president. Then we go to choice re Iran and nukes!
Dean is certain there will be an October surprise, reasoning that because it always works, it will always be used. My question is what was the October surprise just before the 2004 election. For the life of me I can’t remember.
—Mark S.
My question is what was the October surprise just before the 2004 election.
A new Osama bin Laden video magically appeared. This resulted in a wide-ranging multidimensional mortality salience induction.
A katrina like storm that takes out another major city would nullify the october suprise.
The chances of Bush doing anything useful, even as a clever “strategery,” are near zero. Don’t know that it would help with the Congressional midterms anyway. The same goes for replacing Cheney.
And as for nabbing Bin Laden at long last, I suspect the public’s reaction would be similar to Scott McClellan’s: “I’m sorry, who?”
I really do fear Bush may attack Iran, although Sy Hersh outing that closet monster has certainly ruined the “surprise” element. The fear and loathing of Bush from the Pentagon would cause that option to backfire, massively.
Has there been any Presidntial toy that this boy hasn’t used? Any forbidden toys, even?
On the semi-legal toy side:
WAR. He got us into a needless one. Of course, he lied to get us in it.
Illegal toys:
Using the Supreme Court to decide an election.
Manipulating elections. Coming, soon, again, to a theatre near you in November ’06.
Manipulating intelligence.
Outing a CIA opertative.
Torture.
Rendering.
NSA spying.
Firing leakers.
If I told you in 1999 that we’d have a President who did all of the above, you would have pointed the way to the nearest happy home on the hill and told me to up my med’s whenI get there.
So, what, today, would preclude him from using the ultimate Presidential boy-toy – nuclear bombs?
In his “mind,” not using them would be soooo pre-9/11.
To quote the great Country Joe: “There ain’t no time to wonder why,
Whoopee, we’re all gonna die!”
Unless we can find a way to stop him.
Nobody with any hope of becoming president is going to want to replace Dick Cheney. Nobody will want to be “so-and-so” in the phase “the Bush, so-and-so” administration” in the 2008 campaign. The only person I can think of who would accept this position is Alan Keyes, the Marylander who ran against Barack Obama to be U.S. Senator from Illinois.
I am going to go with #3,,,But I wouldn’t put another “terror attack ” on our soil past them……
Trying to think like that bunch of thugs is hard , but if I was bush/rove I would be thinking how the American people are not afraid enough anymore.They used to be able to control the public pretty well with fear.As soon as someone dared to question them, they invoke 911 and watch the masses quake in their boots..that affect has gone mostly …YES I think anyone with a heart is still coping with it in some way, but it is not Bushs trump card anymore(and it is SICK that he ever allowed it to be used that way..SHAME)……
Everytime he or his bottom feeders bring up 911 to promote fear or threaten another attack it pisses me off..other people were too afraid to see it in this context but what I saw it as MY employee telling me he couldn’t do his job and was threatening me with death in the same sentence…if there is a time to be “unhinged” this is it!!!!!!!!!!But instead people ran to hide under Georges skirt begging “oh please save me massa”…
I can’t see how george could hope to get back in the good graces of anyone, much less history at this point without another bullhorn moment…I would like to think the American people wouldn’t fall for it again but it turns out Americans are a bunch of frightened little children who fall for bullhorn moments as a false sense of security rather than actual deeds..sadly.Americans would be just like charlie brown running to kick the ball AGAIN only to have Lucy (bush) move it again ..and we will land on our asses AGAIN and look stupid…oh how those smug bastards must laugh at the dumb American puppets who will fall for anything.
I think they need to set Iran up for the fall, exactly like Scott Ritter has said recently…Bush needs to get people “up in arms”,, he needs to sell the product,, can the American people be talked into it if there is an attack on Israel?Or do they need more of a “shock and awe” to be controlled,,,that is the question evil minds must be asking.
#1 Cheney as VP restrains thoughts of impeachment; look who would take over for Georgie Boy. If Cheney replaced for more “star power” and less baggage, any thoughts of impeachment have to look better with hopefully a sane replacement as new VP.
#2 Aint happening. He hasn’t done anything in 5+ years; what makes you think the next 6 months will be different?
#3 As they say in all those stock disclaimers:” Past performance does not guarentee future results,”, but Georgie’s track record of agression sure points to this option. With his usual hypocricy, he will say that he is doing this for National Security, with no hints of political overtones. I feel this option will be used before the elections, for another “unite behind our leader in time of war” moment, and one last attempt to scare the American public.
Cancelling the elections: If you believe that this guy could and would do anything to accomplish his “goals”, i think cancellation of elections is possible for 2008, when America can decide if it wants new leadership. With America in its never-ending war( the defeat of an ideology is too open ended a goal), King George , as a “wartime” leader, would make a delusional case about why he should continue on without an election.
Again, past performance does not guarentee future results, but it sure is a good indicator of which way the winds may blow.
I imagine this possibility for October:
Bush, the ‘what-ever-it-takes risk-taker’ [ he who hid out somewhere in Georgia during Vietnam…..he who risks only others’ lives] will be poised atop a mountain for his choreographed ‘king of the hill’ vote-swayer October drama.
The ground rumbles……his final incompetency made clear — he picked a photo-op mountainous, monstrous action that unleashes a volcano of revolt spewing up against him.
I think we can safely rule out #2, on two counts. 1) Everything these people touch turns to crap. 2) He wants war, it makes him feel good.
Past performance may not predict future results–but the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. So. Be afraid.. be very afraid. I have no idea what the October surprise will be, but I’m getting out my tinfoil hat now.
lurker,
I’m with you on that. I prefer a double layer of Reynolds wrap with a “French Cuff” around the edge. I’m thinking of wallpapering my apartment with the stuff.
By the way, isn’t not learning from past performance one of the definition of madness?
Insanity is defind as doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results, these guys are clinically insane, expect more of the same.
Oops, wife walked in as I was typing, I screwed up “defined”.
I know how inportant good spelling is at this blog….
Forewarned is forearmed. We have until October to prepare (psychologically at least) for the next big bad thing. And we have until 2008 to prepare for post-Bush. It’s time to look past this mess, folks.
During the months leading up to the Iraq invasion I was adamant in telling friends that it would NEVER happen. The whole idea seemed so obviously CRAZY…though lots of NeoCons in the Administration and in the media were promoting regime change. Many of these same people are now pushing for military action against Iran. This time I believe the “shock and awe” will not produce the desired political results. Most of us now know these fuckers are not really concerned about the safety and security of the American people.
Yes, there is definitely going to be an October surprise – the fact that Karl Rove is now working full time on politics, without even the pretense of being a “policy advisor” (like the junta ever gave a rat’s ass about policy) is a huge clue.
There are many possibilites, none of which I would put past the regime:
* Nuke Iran, possibly preceded by a convenient Reichstag fire in the US.
* Postpone the elections indefinitely, again possibly using that Reichstag fire as a pretext.
* Declare that Georgie Boy is above the constitution and can have as many terms as he likes, without the inconvenience of elections. This is probably less likely than the other scenarios. I believe “Amend for Arnie” was a trial balloon to see if the US public was favorably inclined to amending the constitution for a single individual’s benefit. If it had caught on, it would have been quietly dropped and replaced by “Amend for Georgie”. But it didn’t, so it was just quietly dropped.
* Preemptive swift boat attacks on Hillary, Feingold, and anyone else who might remotely be a Dem candidate. Given Rove’s track record, this is the likeliest scenario.
However, nothing can be ruled out. We are talking about very sick, evil, psychopathic people who are becoming increasingly unhinged from reality and have no moral compass whatever.
Ya mean the peasants might storm the castle?
Perhaps the “Bull dawg” and the retired generals will enlist the disgruntled CIA good guys and out the ratbastards,
Could happen…
Star appeal? Gulliani, Rice, McCain… I don’t think so.
I’ll go with No More Mr Nice Guy – and think in terms that the young officers are getting into the mix. Bear in mind the US Armed Forces Officer swears allegiance to the United States Constituition. Obviously George W. and Rumsfeld did not pay attention at their swearing in ceremony as officers. The Enlisted personnel swear allegiance to the orders of the officers over them. A distinct but important difference. Think about it. No peasants storming the castle. The NRA may be on Bushco side and then regret it.
Re Bush dealing with another Katrina; how about Hurricane Ignatz coming ashore July 19th, 2006 at Grand Bay, Alabama with a thirty-five foot storm surge, pounding Mobile on its right side, moving northeast on I-65 through Montgomery, then Atlanta, Annapolis, Maryland, Atlantic City, through Bridgeport and exiting at Bar Harbor? Is Bush’s Administration up to the challenge?
Katrina Evacuee,
These guys aren’t up to the challenge of getting dressed in the morning.
Man Servant: “Mr. President, you’ve got your underwear on over your pants.”
Shrub: “By golly, you’re right. Ge me another pair of pants to put over them.”
Hey, King George: Arrogant, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.