
Happy Day After the Midterm! I feel as if this should be a holiday from now on. These results not only exceeded my expectations, they exceeded by wildest hopes.
There are still a number of House races yet to be decided. But I calculate that even if Republicans win all the remaining seats, the Dems would still have a 22 seat majority in the House. And I doubt Republicans will win all of the remaining seats. It’s estimated Dems will win about 30 more seats, or roughly half of what’s left.
There are two Senate seats undecided, in Mississippi and Alaska. Everybody says Alaska will need several days to figure out who won. Mary Peltola has a slight lead at the moment, but given the ranked choice system the winner may depend on how people ranked the other candidates.
Mississippi may need a recount. As I write this, Democrat Scott Colom is leading Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith by 43 votes. Yes, 43 votes. With 98 percent of the vote reported.
But the big news, of course, is that the Dems flipped seven Senate seats last night, and the Republicans didn’t flip any. Even if Alaska and Mississippi end up going to Republicans, the Dems will still have a Fetterman-proof majority.
The two big questions of the morning are, What will the Democrats do? And what will the Republicans do? One would think that any Republican looking to run for office iin 2028 would want to back away from Trump asap. And I would think that goes double for any Republican who is toying with running for POTUS. But Claire McCaskill pointed out on MSNBC that the remaining Republican senators and the House Republicans who survived the election are likely to be the reddest of the red. Some of them, especially in the House, may not know how to so much as brush their own teeth independetly from Trump. There may be some Republican senators who were not up for re-election this year who are capable of breaking with Trump, but I don’t know who they might be.
What will the Democrats do? I assume Hakeem Jeffries will be Speaker and Chuck Schumer will be Majority Leader, and neither is exactly a progressive firebrand.
At TPM David Kurtz reminds us that after the 2008 election “Democrats had 56 Senate seats and 257 House seats.” Close to what we’ll have in January. However, if you remember that Congress, a whole lot of those Dems were Blue Dogs who voted with Republicans a large part of the time. The Blue Dog Coalition in the House had 54 members then. And even the ones who weren’t formally Blue Dogs were not progressives by current standards, either. It was the centrist Dems as much as Republicans who forced compromises on lot of what President Obama wanted to do, as I remember. The Democrats in the new Congress will still have squishy centrists among them, but on the whole they appear to be a few degrees more activist that the Congress seated in 2009. A lot of them appear more than eager to start going after Trump and what he’s done these past two years.
See also Say Goodnight, New Democrats. It’s the Era of the New New Democrats.by Michael Tomasky at The New Republic.
I’d love to know how the MAGA faithful are processing the election results. I checked out some Facebook groups that can usually be counted on to attract comments from MAGAts, and they are oddly absent today. I understand MAGA influencers are in meltdown mode, but the articles about them are all behind paywalls.
By all accounts Trump himself is in denial that he is to blame for the wipeout. He’s blaming Fox News and the fact that he wasn’t on the ballots. But see Trump may be literally unable to comprehend that he lost: insider by Matthew Rozsa at Alternet. Michael Wolff says that Trump doesn’t grasp numbers and probably doesn’t comprehend how badly he (and the GOP) were beaten. He doesn’t get how lame a lame duck he really is.
Odd thought: The Israeli Parliament is still trying to patch together a majority. I wonder if Trump’s wipeout will but Netanyahu in a weaker position?
