The Mahablog

Politics. Society. Group Therapy.

The Mahablog

The Gaza Deal May Yet Fail

Netanyahu is already screwing up the ceasefire deal announced yesterday.

An Israeli cabinet meeting to approve a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas was delayed Thursday morning after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the militant group of “reneging” on parts of the agreement.

Netanyahu’s office said the cabinet would not convene until Hamas accepted all elements of the deal. A Hamas official said on social media that the group is committed to the agreement announced Wednesday. Neither provided any further details.

Discussions are ongoing about how prisoners will be exchanged, so the deal is not dead. And as expected, Trump is claiming credit for the deal. It will be a real joke on Trump if it falls apart after he’s inaugurated.

If you missed President Biden’s farewell address, here it is:

The part about the oligarchs is getting some attention.

I have no doubt that America is in a position to continue to succeed. That’s why my farewell address tonight — I want to warn the country of country of some things that give me great concern. This is a dangerous concern and that’s a dangerous concentration of power in the hands of a very few ultra-wealthy people and the dangerous consequences if their abuse of power is left unchecked.

Today, an oligarchy is taking democracy, our basic rights and freedoms and a fair shot for everyone to get ahead. We see the consequences all across America, and we’ve seen it before more than a century ago. But the American people stood up to the robber barons back then and busted the trusts. They didn’t punish the wealthy; they just made the wealthy play by the rules everybody else had to. Workers want rights there and it helped put us on a path to building the largest middle class, the most prosperous century any nation in the world has ever seen. We’ve got to do that again. 

As I said yesterday, I’m not following the confirmation hearings. They’re all corrupt; they’re all going to be confirmed. There’s nothing that can be done about it.

Update: Rudy Giuliani was a no show in court today. A trial was supposed to begin in NYC that would determine if he can keep his Palm Beach condo and collection of World Series rings. Now it’s postponed. Someone might want to find him.

Update update: Giuliani has announced all parties have reached some kind of settlement, and he can keep his condo. It sounds screwy to me.

We Are So Bleeped

Update: This seems to be a big deal.

JERUSALEM, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal to halt fighting in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, an official briefed on the deal told Reuters on Wednesday, opening the way to a possible end to a 15-month war that has upended the Middle East.

The agreement follows months of on-off negotiations brokered by Egyptian and Qatari mediators, with the backing of the United States, and came just ahead of the Jan. 20 inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

I understand this is basically the same plan President Biden was working toward in May. And I’m sure Donald Trump is already taking credit for it.

***

If I had to guess, I’d say Pete Hegseth will get the job as DoD head after all. It looks like there aren’t enough Senate Republicans with the guts to block him. We’re bleeped.

I am not watching the confirmation hearings, because it’s pointless. The fix is in. All the Democrats can do is lay down markers for the future — this candidate is a pile of bleep — so they can slam Republicans with their bad judgment in the 2026 midterms. At least maybe — maybe — they’ll nix Tulsi Gabbard. But I bet all the rest of the flying monkeys will be confirmed.

From Jennifer Rubin’s new Contrarian substack column:

Watching Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth demonstrate his appalling lack of credentials, knowledge, and character for the job for which he was nominated I am compelled to ask: Is the Trump administration running a DEI program for incompetent, unqualified, and/or ethically compromised Whites?

Heh.

Here’s a story from yesterday that really should have gotten more attention: Reuters reports that Trump says he will create new agency to collect revenue from foreign sources.

Donald Trump said on Tuesday he will create a new government agency called the External Revenue Service “to collect tariffs, duties, and all revenue” from foreign sources as he readies new import tariffs ahead of his inauguration next week.

Trump said in a social media post he would create the department on Jan. 20, the day he takes office as president for a second term, adding that Americans have been taxed for too long by the Internal Revenue Service.

This reinforces what I’ve long believed, that Trump really doesn’t understand what tariffs are. His campaign talk about collecting money from China wasn’t just talk for the rubes. He thinks that’s how tariffs work. Of course, the U.S. has long had a very efficient method of collecting tariffs and duties, which has been handled in our ports by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency since 1789.

Trump is such a moron. We are so bleeped.

Trump Prepares to Punish California

Here’s some big news — Jennifer Rubin is leaving the Washington Post. She’s joining a new substack site called The Contrarian that says it is dedicated to fighting authoritarianism. Other writers who are said to have joined include George Conway, Barbara McQuade, and Andrew Weissmann. So we’ll see how that goes.

WaPo under Bezos is getting more and more useless. Rubin used to be an apologist for George W. Bush, but she never bought into Trumpism and has been one of the most intelligent and prolific critics of Trump for a decade now. Now WaPo is losing her. Several months ago WaPo somehow lost two of their other best, and progressive, opinion writers, Greg Sargent and Paul Waldman. There aren’t many WaPo opinion writers left who are worth reading. WaPo still has Eugene Robinson, Dana Milbank, Alexandra Petri, and Colbert King, but the rest of them I can think of run the gamut from mushy to deranged, IMO. They still have Philip Bump and Aaron Blake doing politics reporting, but I’ve noticed a lot of their news reporting is getting mushier, too. Jeff Bezos is killing a once-great newspaper.

The fires in southern California continue and threaten to get worse, I understand. The Biden Administration is sending aid. Once Trump takes over, that’s likely to change. Eric Lutz, Vanity Fair:

As Politico reported, Trump on Sunday held a dinner at Mar-a-Lago with several House Republicans, during which he discussed tying wildfire relief funding to a debt limit increase—something he’s been agitating for since the end of last year, when he called for the debt ceiling to be abolished during a government funding fight. House Speaker Mike Johnson was not present, according to Politico, but several top Republicans were, including some with authority over the appropriations process.

Earlier Sunday, Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso predicted to CBS News’ Margaret Brennan that he believes “there will be strings attached to money that is ultimately approved” for fire relief. “It has to do with being ready the next time,” Barasso said Sunday on Meet the Press, “because this was a gross failure this time.” Last week, Ohio Congressman Warren Davidsonsuggested outright to Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo that aid could be withheld to “put pressure on the California government to change course” in its forest management policy. “If they want the money, then there should be consequences where they have to change their policies,” the Republican said Friday.

As I wrote last week, righties refuge to acknowledge the role of climate change in fires of unprecedented intensity in bleeping January and blame the disaster on Democratic party mismanagement and DEI hiring. See the Guardian, US right wing fans misinformation fires as firefighters battle Los Angeles blazes. Gov. Newsom has set up a web page to counter the lies, but of course no rightie is going to believe Gavin Newsom.

More Stuff to Read:

Trump’s thuggish response to the California fires is a bad omen by Noah Berlatsky at Public Notice catalogs a lot of the lies being spread.

Of course Trump himself rushed to join the outflow of gaseous garbage. On Truth Social, he ranted that California did not have enough water to fight the fires because Gov. Gavin Newsom had chosen “to protect an essentially worthless fish called a smelt” and “refused to sign the water restoration declaration.” Trump continued to heap abuse on Newsom throughout the week and weekend, even as the governor worked to respond to an unprecedented disaster.

I’m surprised he didn’t mention the giant faucet. Turns out there is no such document as the “water restoration declaration” and no one seems to know how it got into Trump’s head that there was. No, there’s no shortage of water.

See also Paul Krugman, In Praise of California.

The Tech Bros Want to Rule the World

Here’s a headline at Politico that caught my attention:

Here’s the article.

The U.S. government under incoming President Donald Trump should intervene to stop the EU from fining American tech companies for breaching antitrust rules and committing other violations, Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said late Friday.

Exactly how is Trump going to “intervene” with the EU’s business? Will he invade Brussels once he’s conquered Greenland, or what? Trump can always ask the EU nicely to lay off the tech bros, of course; and the EU can and probably will tell Trump to go pound sand.

Zuckerberg complained that the EU had forced U.S. tech companies operating in Europe to pay “more than $30 billion” in penalties for legal violations over the past two decades. Last November, the tech chief’s Meta conglomerate, which operates Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and other social media and communications platforms, was fined €797 million for breaching EU antitrust rules by imposing unfair trading conditions on ads service providers.

Last year the EU fined Meta 1.2 billion euros for sending users’ personal data to the U.S., I assume without the permission of the users. “The decision applies to user data like names, email and IP addresses, messages, viewing history, geolocation data and other information that Meta — and other tech giants like Google — use for targeted online ads.” Stuff they get away with here.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk — having bought the U.S., apparently — is now moving on Europe. And the Europeans don’t care for it much. Newsweek reports that “Musk is being investigated in Europe amid concerns the billionaire’s influence, for instance through his posts on X, constitutes an ‘interference’ in upcoming elections.” Well, yes, it probably is. Go for it, Europe. See also EU politicians warn against Elon Musk’s incursions into European politics at ABC News.

The Next Financial Crash

Last month — before the current fire disaster, note — the Senate Budget Committee put out a report titled Next to Fall: The Climate-Driven Insurance Crisis Is Here — and Getting Worse. Here’s just a bit —

In communities across the United States, homeowners are already facing a climate-driven insurance affordability crisis. As climate-related risks have increased, so, too, have climate losses. Some estimates suggest that “[i]nsured losses from natural disasters in the U.S. now routinely approach $100 billion a year, compared to $4.6 billion in 2000.” This has, in turn, translated to an accompanying increase in insurance premiums. Between 2020 and 2023, insurance premiums in the top 20 percent of counties for climate risk increased by 22 percent, and studies have found that insurance premiums have increased 40 percent faster than inflation. Homeowners have, on average, “seen their premiums spike 21 percent since 2015. . . . That
means ever more people are forgoing coverage, leaving them vulnerable and driving prices even higher as the number of people paying premiums and sharing risk shrinks.” Staggeringly, around 67 percent of homes in the United States are now underinsured.

In other words, this isn’t just a Florida or California problem. It’s a national problem, and it needs a national solution, which isn’t going to happen in the next four years.

I believe this is the Bloomberg article that was linked in Senator Whitehouse’s “x.” I can’t read it behind the subscriber paywall. Here’s one I could read, Climate change tests the insurance industry and could lead to the ‘next big economic shock’ for the U.S. at Yahoo News. The MAGAts are still pretending climate change is a joke, but you can’t fool bean-counters.

Meanwhile, House GOP puts Medicaid, ACA, climate measures on chopping block, says Politico. House Republicans are the new flying monkeys, I tell you.

See also As a Climate Scientist, I Knew It Was Time to Leave Los Angeles at the New York Times.

Fire and the Right and We’re All Doomed

[Update: SCOTUS didn’t stop the sentencing. Trump will be sentenced tomorrow for the convictions in the “hush money” case.]

[Another update: MSNBC is reporting that the 11th Circuit court says the Jack Smith report can be released, but after a three-day delay to allow for appeals. It’s not clear to me if this ruling applies equally to the J6 and documents reports.]

This is one of those days I wonder if our species will last another century. Predictably, the Right is turning the California fires into partisan talking points based on lies.

Philip Bump at WaPo writes that falsehoods around the L.A. fires are proliferating on the right. The subhead is, “Anything to keep the realities of climate change from spreading.” Please do read this; no paywall. Led by Donald Trump, it’s already a hardwired narrative on the Right that flames are consuming neighborhoods because of Democrats and DEI hires. If only White Republican men were running California, I take it, none of this would have happened.

Here’s just a sample:

We should begin by noting that most of the criticisms — about the hydrants or water diversion or the LAFD itself — have nothing to do with why the fires erupted and spread so quickly. Instead, hurricane-force Santa Ana winds quickly spread small fires across areas that were unusually dry. Wildfires have long been a challenge in California; what’s unfolding in Los Angeles is an overlap of factors that increase the risks of wildfires spreading.

So when actor James Woods, a prominent voice on right-wing social media, declares that the fires are because of “liberal idiots like Gavin Newsom and Karen Bass,” saying one of them “doesn’t understand the first thing about fire management and the other can’t fill the water reservoirs,” he is incorrect. For example — and in contrast to Trump’s claim about diverting water from Northern California that was aimed at agriculture, not firefighting — reservoirs in Southern California are at or above historic levels. That’s good news for firefighting aircraft that need the water to douse flames, except that those high winds prevented them from flying for several hours.

And, of course, all the screeching about DEI is based on the assumption “that non-White hires are necessarily less competent,” and this is accepted on the Right as gospel.

I took a look at one Right-wing site. At Hot Air, a person named Duane Patterson writes under a painfully ironic headline, “Lessons, Painful At Times, Are Only Lessons If They’re Eventually Learned.” And, of course, there is no clear “lesson” presented in the article, just the usual grievances. This disaster is entirely the fault of “Democratic leadership,” who somehow should have been able to slow down the wind and make the rain fall. More water should have been available, Patterson writes, except as Philip Bump told us, a lack of water in reservoirs wasn’t the problem. And it’s also the fault of homeless people — arson is suggested — and DEI hires. The usual blah blah blah.

What isn’t the problem is climate change. Climate change is mentioned twice, in both cases to dismiss it as just a stupid excuse. Here’s one mention:

Insurance companies pulled out of the L.A. basin years ago because state regulators would not allow them to adjust their rates to cover the increased exposure risk that was growing along with all the undergrowth and brush in the hills that the state refused to cut back. Insurance companies knew trouble was coming. Everyone honestly knew this day would eventually come, but Gavin Newsom would love for you to believe it’s climate change’s fault and just one of those things that’s unavoidable. 

Climate change is not “unavoidable” if we can accept that it’s happening and take steps to slow it down, but let’s go on … The part about insurance is mostly true; the state would not let insurance companies raise their rates to cover their increased exposure to wildfire risk.

But how many homeowners would have found the rates too high? And remember that the Republican-run state of Florida has a similar problem; insurance companies are packing up and leaving because the increased risk of hurricanes makes insuring Florida homes too risky. All those White Republican manly men who run Florida don’t seem to have an answer for that, either. California at least offers a home insurance plan of last resort for people who can’t get other coverage, which I’m pretty sure is more than Florida has done. Do correct me if I’m wrong.

As far as forest management is concerned, I’m going to assume California could do better than it has. But I found this article about a 2023 UCLA study that says, in brief, it’s complicated.

While some political leaders have argued that governmental overprotection of forests has been the primary cause of worsening fires, the reality is more nuanced. Increased logging and clearing trees may help in some locations. But in other places, evidence suggests it can lead to worse fires. For instance, opening the tree canopy allows sunlight to dry vegetation, MacDonald said, increasing the amount of dry plant matter that feeds wildfires.

And you’re going to need a huge number of people to do all the brush clearing and leaf raking the Right suggests. Who you gonna hire (if not migrants)?

The paper also calls for more regulation (watch the Righties get the vapors) regarding where and how housing developments can be built. But in the end, hotter weather, a dryer climate, and stronger winds will still be with us.

Oh, and here’s the other mention of climate change in the Hot Air article:

If there is one thing Newsom is competent at, it’s playing the blame game. There’s truly no one finer. It’s always someone else’s fault, or it’s climate change’s fault – any number of outlets for passing the buck when disaster strikes.

Like I said, climate change is just dismissed as a stupid excuse. No lessons learned here.

This goes back at least to Ronald Reagan’s taking Jimmy Carter’s solar panels off the White House roof. The implication was that alternative energy is for wimps. Manly men and their supportive women must drill baby drill. Loyalty to fossil fuels is now deeply embedded in hard-Right tribal identity, to the point that no right-thinking Rightie would ever even momentarily entertain the notion that climate change is happening and fossil fuels might be a problem. Their minds are closed and locked up tight. They have been well trained to react to any mention of climate change with derision and denial, and I don’t see that changing.

So, no lessons will be learned, as long as Donald Trump and his cult have anything to say about it.

See also Philip Bump’s column from yesterday, No windmills, more rakes: Trump’s archaic climate politics return. Trump, who no doubt has never so much as raked a leaf or mowed a lawn in his life, is certain that we just need more leaf-raking a brush clearing. For that matter, I wonder if Trump has ever walked in a real, natural forest? He’s a New York City boy, you know.

Bump begins,

The mechanism for climate change is by now well established. Gases like carbon dioxide and methane sit in Earth’s atmosphere and absorb heat rising from the planet instead of allowing the heat to escape into space. Some of that absorbed heat is, instead, redirected back down to the Earth’s surface. Because we’ve dumped so much of those gases into the atmosphere — largely by burning oil, coal and gas — more heat is retained.

The planet gets hotter. The oceans get hotter and expand. The air gets hotter and holds more moisture. The land gets hotter and dries out. We get rising sea levels and bigger storms and worse droughts. 2024 will almost certainly be Earth’s hottest year on record, seizing the title from the previous hottest year … 2023.

But no, that can’t be true, says the Right. We just need to put manly Republican White men in charge, and rake more leaves, or something.

Trump Crime News

I hope all you readers are safe from the wildfires in California. It sounds terrible.

The latest — at the present time, AG Merrick Garland plans to release the Jack Smith J6 report, probably on Friday, but hold back on the documents report. There are still two defendants in the documents case, Trump employees Waltine Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira, who are asking the report not be released. I assume any report not released before Trump takes office will be buried, and all traces of it in the Department of Justice likely destroyed. One assumes Jack Smith is keeping copies. Just for posterity, of course.

In other Trump crime news, today Trump asked the Supreme Court to stop Judge Juan Merchan from issuing a sentence in the hush money case. As reported in Business Insider,

Lawyers for Donald Trump have asked the US Supreme Court to block the president-elect’s Manhattan hush-money sentencing, currently set for Friday.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor is assigned to handle emergency applications from New York for the court, and she will get first pass at the application.

Sotomayor, nominated by President Barack Obama in 2009, issued a scathing dissent of the high court’s July 1 opinion granting presidents broad immunity from prosecution. The 525-page application filed by Trump on Wednesday morning refers to presidential immunity more than 300 times, and argues that it voids his conviction and indictment.

Sotomayor, nominated by President Barack Obama in 2009, issued a scathing dissent of the high court’s July 1 opinion granting presidents broad immunity from prosecution. The 525-page application filed by Trump on Wednesday morning refers to presidential immunity more than 300 times, and argues that it voids his conviction and indictment.

If she is unpersuaded by Trump’s application, she will refer it to the full panel of justices, where he would need a majority 5/9 vote to prevail.

The Court asked for a response by 10 a.m. Thursday from Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, so if they have a full panel vote I assume it will be after that. I like David Kurtz’s headline on this — Does The Roberts Court Have Any Dignity Left To Surrender?

In more other news: President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico suggested today that the United States be renamed “Mexican America.” 

And It’s Likely to Get Worse

This is embarrassing. The Associated Press reports,

President-elect Donald Trump told residents of Greenland that “we’re going to treat you well” as his oldest son visited the mineral-rich Danish territory that’s home to a large U.S. military base, heightening speculation that the incoming U.S. administration could seek to acquire it.

The president-elect later told a news conference he wouldn’t rule out using military force or economic coercion to take control of Greenland, saying that “we need it for national security.”

Earlier, the president-elect posted a video showing a TRUMP-emblazoned plane landing in Nuuk, the Arctic territory’s capital, in a landscape of snow-capped peaks and fjords.

“Don Jr. and my Reps landing in Greenland,” Trump wrote. “The reception has been great. They, and the Free World, need safety, security, strength, and PEACE! This is a deal that must happen. MAGA. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!” Supporters later posted video of Trump speaking by phone to locals.

Just look at the headline on this mess:

The 56,000 inhabitants of Greenland must be getting alarmed. But was there some groundswell of demand for annexing Greenland I never noticed? Who other than Trump wants this? And what makes me suspect Putin put the idea in Trump’s thick head?

And, of course, he’s still talking about invading Panama and making Canada a state.

Anyway — in other news, Jack Smith was preparing to release his final report on Donald Trump by this Friday. This is a two-part report, one volume on J6 and one on stolen documents. Yesterday Judge Aileen Cannon ruled that the Justice Department may not release the report. (Some news stories have her blocking the documents part, but other says she’s trying to block the whole thing.) I take it there is question whether Loose has the authority to block either part of the document. So we’ll see what happens.

The Insurrection Isn’t Over

It’s January 6 again. Back in the day January 6 was the Feast of the Epiphany and the official end of the Christmas season. Now we remember The Insurrection. There are a number of Insurrection retrospectives online today. Joyce Vance reposted something she wrote on 1/7/2021. Don Moynihan has a good commentary headlined Jan. 6 and the Path Not Taken. President Biden has an op ed at WaPo headlined What Americans Should Remember About Jan. 6. But then see David Kurtz at TPM, who says Biden was mistaken when he wrote that we’re “beyond” the Insurrection.

The Insurrection isn’t over. It continues even now. Ever since the 2020 election we’ve been locked in a struggle against a faction of socially alienated and angry neo-fascists who have been whipped up into believing that Trump was robbed of an election — or, at least, are willing to say they believe it to justify their burn-it-all-down agenda. Standing against this faction are those who support the Constitution, democracy the rule of law, and the institutions of government, flawed though they may be. Plus there’s a big third faction of low-information voters who don’t know what the bleep is going on but voted for Trump because they think he’ll bring down the price of groceries. Which he won’t.

And I understand The Weather is dumping a ton of snow on Washington, DC. Seems poetic.

Meanwhile, MAGA freakazoid Kash Patel, Trump’s nominee to head the FBI, has been pushing the claim that the FBI planned the January 6 insurrection. Yeah, he’s just the guy to head the bureau. Trump is putting his people into critical positions so that the work of January 6 — to destroy the guard rails that keep us safe from tyranny — can continue. He may yet succeed. And I fear the Republican majority in the Senate will meekly let him get away with it.

Related: I recommend The Internet Is Worse than a Brainwashing Machine at The Atlantic. No paywall.

In other news: The White House announced that “Today President Biden will take action to protect the entire U.S. East coast, the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Pacific off the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California, and additional portions of the Northern Bering Sea in Alaska from future oil and natural gas leasing.” Great, but won’t Trump just reverse that as soon as he’s sworn in? Maybe not. According to The Daily Beast,

Biden is invoking the 1953 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA) to prevent new fossil fuel developments off the East and West coasts of the U.S. as well as in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Alaska’s North Bering Sea.

The law gives presidents the power to permanently withdraw parts of the Outer Continental Shelf from future oil and gas leasing—but doesn’t include a provision for how another president could revoke such an order. Trump would therefore likely have to get Congress to change the law before he could undo Biden’s action.

Trump’s pack of flying monkey supporters are screeching bloody murder about this, of course. None of the news stories I’ve seen are mentioning that there was a record oil production boom during the Biden Administration.

The US is the largest crude oil producer in the world, pumping out nearly 13 million barrels on average every day in 2023, an all-time record, according to new data from the US Energy Information Administration.

That’s an awkward milestone for President Joe Biden, who has arguably done more than any modern president to facilitate America’s transition away from fossil fuels to greener alternatives.

For the last six years, America has outstripped Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC countries in crude oil production. And it has picked up the pace under Biden, who had approved more permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands by last October than former President Donald Trump had by the same point in his presidency.

Drill-baby-drill isn’t going to bring the price of gas down anytime soon, although good luck trying to explain that to the flying monkeys.