Getting Closer

Biden has pulled ahead of Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania, and Business Insider, at least, has called the election for Biden.  That may be premature. It also may be that we won’t be completely beyond doubt in the presidential election until early next week. It’s awfully close. The overseas military ballots probably haven’t been counted yet. Last night, before I changed the channel, Steve Kornacki was saying that it was not impossible for Trump to take over the lead in Arizona. But he hasn’t yet as of this morning.

I don’t want to talk about the Senate yet. It is possible the majority (assuming Biden wins) will be determined by two runoff elections in Georgia in bleeping January. Maybe some nice friendly normal country can invade us and take over before then. Canada? New Zealand? They seem nice.

Some time I am going to have a lot to say about state races and why Republicans did better than expected. Here’s a preview:

In Missouri, where all but one Democrat I was rooting for lost (and that one exception is a Black U.S. House candidate from Ferguson, so … ), the Dems were hammered primarily on two issues — defunding the police and Medicare for All. It didn’t matter how many times the Dems were on the teevee saying they did not want to defund the police and did not support Medicare for All; the Republicans ran ads over and over and over slamming their opponents on defunding the police and Medicare for All. And, apparently, this worked.

The Dems tried to nail Republicans on their support for overturning the ACA and ending protection for people with preexisting conditions. But then all the Republicans ran ads in which they so sincerely pledged to protect people with preexising conditions, even though they have no plan to do so if the Supreme Court overturns the ACA. I don’t think running primarily on the health care issue helped Dems any. Next time, maybe they should just run ads showing the candidates shooting up cornfields with artillery.. That seems to work in these parts.

Our Experiment in Democracy Is Failing

Although it appears Joe Biden will be the 46th President, many people are wondering today how the election could be so close, and how could so many Americans have voted for such an abject failure of a man as Donald Trump. Nancy LeTourneau sums it up:

While data eventually showed Trump’s 2016 win in the Electoral College was fueled by xenophobia, there was at least the specter of crediting the president’s so-called “populism” as a factor. But none of that materialized once he got into office. The majority of working Americans disapproved of his tax cuts aimed primarily at the wealthy. The president never got around to infrastructure, and his trade war left most farmers in a state of uncertainty. Biden was right when he said that Trump would be “the first president of the United States to leave office, having fewer jobs in his administration than when he became president.” To cap that off, the president basically ignored a pandemic that has so far resulted in the death of over 230,000 Americans.

That summarizes Trump’s first-term. What did he promise to do in a second term? Nothing. The GOP didn’t even propose a platform, and the only thing the president released was a three-page document full of vague statements—most of which he’s been promising to do but never accomplished.

LeTourneau points to the lies and disinformation that have snookered so many. And, of course, racism and xenophobia are big factors also. But I think it goes deeper than that. We are looking at a wholesale rejection of the European Enlightenment and a resurgence of modes of thinking from the Dark Ages.

The United States was born from the Enlightenment. This was, briefly, the 18th century European philosophical movement that promoted reason, science, individual liberty, and equality as its highest ideals. I don’t want to write a long review of the Enlightenment here, but there’s a good overview at the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

More than anything else, Trumpism is a rejection of the Enlightenment. Reason and science are out the window, obviously. Trumpers fancy themselves as champions of liberty, but of course the whole object of right-wing extremism in the U.S., throughout the nation’s history, has been to weaken civil rights and the rule of law in favor of the rule of power. I seem to write another complaint every few months about how the Right loves to holler about FREEDOM even as they are doing their damnedest to destroy it. The Right has stripped the word freedom of all meaning and turned it into a tribal totem.

Something I realized years ago is that American right-wingers, maybe right-wingers everywhere, tend to “think” in symbols, archetypes, and allegories rather than use conceptual thought. This is illustrated by something my Facebook friend Jeffrey Feldman wrote on Monday:

Trumpism is the rejection of discursive politics—our system of government based in talk as a form of persuasion. In discursive politics, talk is protected above all else. Hence: The First Amendment is first. Our laws are words that we follow. Our elected officials debate. We take words seriously. Trumpism rejects all this for a politics of stagecraft, drama, and violence. In their world, all that matters is sentiment, rage, and threats. Ask a Trump supporter why they like Trump and they don’t talk policy or programs. They tell you how he makes them feel—what it’s like when they see him—who they want to hurt. In Trumpism, arguments are replaced by call outs. Kamala Harris is…socialist! (yeah right). Biden’s “whole family” is…corrupt! (um…). In Trumpism, the names of politicians become epithets. In Minnesota, Trump just shouts “Ilan Omar” and his crowds go crazy.

So, the flags fit into this alternate universe. While Democrats are calling, texting, trying to persuade—Trumpists just drive around waving his name and snarling. Democrats are talking healthcare and Covid-19–Trumpists are driving around shouting “Hunter Biden!” out their car windows. It’s a different reality and one we don’t want to have control of our daily lives. Is it Fascism? Sure. If it takes over it will become that. But it’s bad enough as is.

This is thinking in archetypes. Representative Omar, Hunter Biden, Senator Harris, etc. are archetypes to them, not real people. These archetypes repesent something dark and frightening slopping around in the depths of the Trumpain id. You can spend weeks lecturing a Trumper about what socialism is and why Kamala Harris isn’t a socialist, and this effort would go nowhere, because all the Trumper would hear is “blah blah blah.” It doesn’t matter what socialism is, or what Kamala Harris actually proposes. The designations “socialist” and “Kamala Harris” represent something dark and evil, and that’s it.

This is the old mythos versus logos dichotomy; in brief, righties think mythologically rather than conceptually. See my old post from 2007, The Power of (Right Wing) Myth. People from both history and current politics are either embraced or hated by the Right not because of who they really were or are, or what they really did, but because of how those people make them feel and what they represent as archetypes.

And that’s why we don’t communicate. Most of us these days don’t think in archetypes and allegories, at least not exclusively. Ancient people were much more into mythos than we are. Ancient people wrote the world’s scriptures in the language of mythos that was never meant to be taken literally, for example. Then came the Enlightenment, and the Enlightenment philosophers grappled with the distinctions between empericism and subjectivism. Empericism is about things that can be observed objectively and understood rationally and conceptually. When we discuss these things, we are using the language of logos.

Subjectivism touches on psychology, personal experience, emotions, what things and people and events mean or represent to us, not what they objectively are. Mythos is a way of using language to express subjectivism on a social, cultural, or even national scale. It’s not at all surprising that the fascist regimes of the 20th century made generous use of symbolism from ancient myths, whether Nordic (Hitler) or myths about ancient Rome (Mussolini). Today’s righties tap into myths and symbolism from both the Confederacy and from the Third Reich in a similar way.

You can have mythos without tribalism, but I doubt you can have tribalism without mythos. Shared mythology is what holds tribes together, especially these days when tribes join together through the internet and don’t always share physical space.

A big part of tribalism is loyalty. Moral Foundation Theory says that loyalty is much more important to conservatives than it is to liberals, and loyalty is everything to a tribe. This loyalty is the foundation of all groupthink.

For example, in September this year a Gallup poll found that 56 percent of Americans thought they were better off now than four years ago. Seriously? People commenting on this came up with all kinds of rationalizations about how anyone could think that. But I postulate a lot of people who said yes are Trump supporters who are not at all better off now than they were four years ago, but who answered yes to the question because they are supposed to be better off because Trump is president. They cannot answer no without admitting that Trump is failing, and they cannot admit that, even to themselves.

This explains rejection of masks, also; masks must represent something to them that is unspeakably awful, and not wearing one is an expression of tribal loyalty.

So here we are. Trump may be hauled kicking and screaming out of the White House, but the rejection of the Enlightenment by a substantial portion of our population is still with us. And we’re going to be dealing with people who have bought into the QAnon Conspiracy and who think Democrats work for the Devil. And they could very well become more unhinged and more dangerous. And I don’t know what the antidote is.

Trump did not create Trumpism; he stumbled into it. Back in 2012 I wrote a post called GOP: A  Cult Looking for a Personality. In 2012 the GOP was going through a phase of getting nuttier and nuttier, but there was no one Big Giant Head directing the nuttiness. Hence, it was a personality cult looking for a personality. Eventually it found Trump.

The post contains a quote from Billmon (remember Billmon?):

There simply is no getting around the fact that the mentality of the modern grassroots conservative movement is in almost all particulars the spitting image of a 20th century totalitarian political party–an “epistemically closed” loop of self-reference and self-delusion. In other words: a cult.

“’Epistemically closed’ loop of self-reference and self-delusion” is brilliant. This is what the American Right is, and I have no idea how to break the loop. I really don’t. But I don’t think the United States can survive as a representative democracy with so many people completely obvlivious to the Enlightenment principles upon which it was founded.

Waiting to Exhale

Joe Biden may go over the 270 threshold today. Assuming Arizona really is in the bag — there is some sort of disagreement going on; some sources have called it, others haven’t — Biden just needs one more state, and it could be Nevada. It could be Georgia, as Biden is only 14,765 votes behind Trump, and as of an hour ago there were 60,000 votes left to count. It’s also possible Biden will overtake Trump in the counting in Pennsylvania; it gets closer and closer. But all Biden really needs now is Arizona and Nevada. And then there will be court challenges and recounts, but I trust the secretaries of state have taken care to be ready for that.

Trump’s supporters are being whipped into a frenzy of outrage with all manner of propaganda about the election being stolen from Trump. And we knew this was coming. In Pennsylvania, some local Republican officials are refusing to count absentee ballots and instead are putting them aside for the presumed court challenge. Trump supporters have swarmed election offices in Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada to try to disrupt the vote count. So far, the counting has continued. One might reflect upon the logic of Trump’s people stopping the count while Biden is ahead, but whatever. At least, so far, my worst fears of goons with guns taking over election offices and destroying ballots hasn’t come to pass. Yet.

Have you heard about #SharpieGate? This was news to me, but some wingnuts in Arizona started a rumor that ballots marked with Sharpies instead of ballpoint pens were invalid, and a lot of poll workers were handing out Sharpies to Trump voters. How the poll workers could sort the Trump from the Biden voters was not explained. Of course, there is no problem whatsoever with ballots marked with Sharpies.

It’s unfortunately the case that a Biden victory will not wipe out the Trump cult or QAnon or the rest of the craziness pulling out country down a rabbit hole. I fear we are in for a lot more hurt and stupid in the months and years ahead. I’d consider leaving the country if I could get a passport that other habitable places would accept.

Waiting for the Blue Shift

What happened last night was pretty much what was predicted by many, but that doesn’t make it any easier. We were told we wouldn’t have a winner on election night, and we didn’t. We were told Trump would claim victory and threaten to use the courts to stop the vote counting. And that’s what happened.

However: I’ve updated my Excel file tallying the Electoral College votes, and by my calculation if Biden wins Arizona, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, he’s got 271 votes. Maine splits its 4 Electoral College votes, and he could lose one and get to 270. And Biden is ahead in all those states right now, although it’s close in some of them.

Yet to be called are Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Trump is leading in those states, but the mail-in votes are still being counted, and those tend to be for Biden (well, except maybe in Alaska). But if we give Trump Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, he’s still short — 267. He still needs to get one of the states in which Biden is leading. And Trump really needs Pennsylvania to win, or else he has to take Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, or some other combination of the remaining states in which Biden is leading, which doesn’t seem likely.

The teevee people are saying there won’t be any updates from Nevada until tomorrow. Pennsylvania isn’t going to be counted until the end of the week, I suspect. We may not have to wait for Pennsylvania, however. The rest of the states may be called by the end of the day.

I’m more worried about the Senate. Let’s hope the blue shift comes through for Gideon in Maine, Cunningham in North Carolina, Ossoff in Georgia, and Peters (an incumbent) in Michigan. We need three out of four of those, assuming Biden wins and makes Kamala Harris the tie-breaker. The other Georgia Senate seat will be settled in a January 5 runoff between Democrat Warnock and Republican Loeffler, so if we’re one short there’s still a shot, but I’d hate to wait until January.

So that’s where we are this morning.

Update: Wisconsin is called for Biden; Trump says he will ask for a recount. The Associated Press called Arizona for Biden, so I’m putting Arizona in Biden’s tally. Three of four of Maine’s EC votes are called for Biden; the other vote is still out. Biden just needs Michigan and Nevada, and he’s at 270.

Election Night News

6:30 CST. I see that the Associated Press has called Vermont for Biden and Kentucky for Trump. MSNBC has called Indiana for Trump. Right now the crew at MSNBC are wringing their hands over Florida, which is a tossup.

6:45 CST. Somebody called West Virginia for Trump. Somebody called Virginia for Biden. Florida is not looking good, but it’s not over.

7:00 CST. A bunch of states. No surprises. It looks like Trump will get Florida.

7:16 CST. Mitch McConnell wins re-election. Damn. Kentucky should secede.

8:23 CST. We aren’t going to get a lot of critical states tonight, especially Pennsylvania, but I am still hoping for a strong indication that we’re in okay shape. I am trying hard not to look at states that are way early in their counting. Four years ago I knew by around 10 pm that Clinton was going to lose.

8:28 CST. Hickenlooper wins in Colorado! There’s one Senate seat flip to the Dems.

9:24 CST.  Doug Jones lost in Alabama.

9:36 CST. I could be wrong — I am wobbly with numbers — but by my calculations if Biden wins every state Clinton won in 2016 and also picks up Wisconsin and Michigan, that gets him to 259. He needs at least one more big state.

9:57 CST. Lindsey Graham wins. Damn.

10:11 CST. Oh, yuck, the worthless Governor Parson got re-elected in Missouri. Damn shame.

10:32 CST. We may not get any more results this evening, so I’m going to call it quits for a bit. Keep the faith.

10:55 CST. Somebody called Arizona for Biden, which is the first flip from 2016. Okay, now I am getting some sleep.

Why There Are Trump Trains

The recent phenomenon of swarms of cars and trucks flying Trump banners deserves comment, especially after hearing more stories about how these meatheads are threatening mayhem and blocking roads. It also makes me wonder how such bullying demonstrations of force are supposed to persuade anyone to vote for Trump. I like words; I like to hear about policy and values and such from my candidates. Force alone doesn’t appeal to me.

But then, I’m not a Trump supporter, am I?

Something I wrote last year about Trump supporters:

[M]any of our great social observers and philosophers — Erich Fromm, Eric Hoffer, Hannah Arendt — have long noted that alienated and insecure people easily surrender their own ego-identities and autonomy to mass movements and authoritarian strongmen. People march blindly into mass movements because the group provides something the individual feels is lacking in himself. Trump, to his fans, is a larger-than-life being of great power and certitude. By surrendering their autonomy to him, they feel that they absorb that power. Through Trump, they find connection, strength and a sense of belonging. The baffling, ambiguous world becomes a place of absolute clarity, with bright lines between good and bad, right and wrong, truth and lies, all as defined for them by Trump.

Something I wrote nearly four years ago, shortly after the 2016 election:

But the other thing we need to keep in mind is that people are drawn into authoritarianism by feelings of alienation and helplessness. The psychologist/philosopher Erich Fromm, who escaped Nazi Germany, saw this first hand:

“We have seen, then, that certain socioeconomic changes, notably the decline of the middle class and the rising power of monopolistic capital, had a deep psychological effect… Nazism resurrected the lower middle class psychologically while participating in the destruction of its old socioeconomic position. It mobilized its emotional energies to become an important force in the struggle for the economic and political aims of German imperialism.”

…“It was the irrational doubt which springs from the isolation and powerlessness of an individual whose attitude toward the world is one of anxiety and hatred. This irrational doubt can never be cured by rational answers; it can only disappear if the individual becomes an integral part of a meaningful world.”

We all have a deep need for a sense of connection to others and belonging to whatever society we are planted in, Fromm said. People who are jerked around and treated as disposable cogs for too long are likely to lose that sense of connection or belonging. And then they are likely to give themselves to an authoritarian dictator, because through him they think they will find power. That’s really what Trump was promising — stick with me, and you’ll share in my power. The system won’t kick you around any more.

The system kicks nearly all of us around these days; even most white people. Possibly the biggest difference between whites who flock to Trump and those who don’t is that those who don’t have the education and intellectual capacity to see the bigger picture and have some idea how the system is turning us all into serfs. All but that tiny minority at the very top, of course.

I stand by that four-year-old post, btw.

At The Atlantic, law professor Gregory Hill writes about how vehicular mayhem is becoming the preferred form of violence by the U.S. Right.

In a 102-day period following George Floyd’s death in the custody of Minneapolis police, the terrorism researcher Ari Weil identified 104 vehicle-ramming attacks that had been committed against protesters. In the overwhelming majority of cases, the perpetrators were extremists on the far right whose acts of violence were cheered online. Police officers have also driven their vehicles—in some cases SUVs or cruisers fitted with bull bars—into protesters around the country. A few attacks have allegedly been perpetrated by left-wing extremists, too. The preeminent site of violent political conflict this year has been the street, and cars have joined firearms as weapons of choice.

Unlike people who commit gun violence, drivers who hit people benefit from a certain ambiguity: Did the driver mean to run over those protesters—or just not see them? Was the driver acting out of fear? Why were the protesters in the street in the first place?  In the United States, drivers may face little accountability even for fatal crashes. Even in deep-blue New York City, one study found that more than 93 percent of hit-and-run drivers who killed their victims were not charged with any type of homicide; far more often, the incident isn’t fully investigated, the driver simply can’t be identified, or authorities treat the crash as a traffic infraction and issue a traffic ticket or file no charges at all.

Being in a truck or car also provides an illusion of anonymity. One is surrounded by metal, and behind windows, and how often do we notice normally nice people becoming complete assholes when behind a wheel? 

Why does driving turn so many of us into asshats? It’s not merely the rage aspect. We’re constantly doing socially inappropriate things when we’re inside our mobile bubbles. We cut in line, steal parking spots, fail to use our turn signals, and move ahead at a stop sign when it’s not our turn. We engage in aggressive and risky maneuvers that put our lives—and those around us—at risk.

This happens in part because cars exist in a social netherworld somewhere between public and private space. “When we’re in the car we often feel anonymous,” said Erica Slotter, a social psychologist at Villanova University. “That feeling of anonymity can sometimes mean that we behave in ways that we wouldn’t otherwise because we’re less likely to be held accountable.”

So, the “Trump trains” of trucks and cars make logical sense. These are people surrendering their individuality to Lord-God Trump, and being in vehicles make that surrender even more tangible.

I will probably come back and post something later tonight when we’ve got a few results. Don’t forget that it’s likely the early results will favor Trump; the blue shift is likely to come later. Stay safe, and keep breathing.

Feel Free to Say What’s On Your Mind

Yes, I’m still here. But until the polls are closed tomorrow I don’t want to write about the polls or the election and what stupid/despicable thing Donald Trump has done in the past few hours, and that’s pretty much what’s in the news.

This week is likely to be a roller coaster, at best. We may still be waiting for results this time next week. My worst fear is that Trump’s thugs will break into election offices and destroy ballots before they are counted, but maybe it won’t come to that.

As the header says, feel free to say whatever is on your mind.

Just Keep Breathing

I am not going to write about polls any more, at least until Tuesday night. Here’s some music.

You may have heard that police broke up a peaceful get out the vote rally yesterday in North Carolina. See Julia Craven, North Carolina’s Police Attack on Election Marchers Had a Long History Behind It: A racist sheriff and a system of voter suppression meet in a cloud of pepper spray at Slate.

See also Why Are Republicans So Afraid of Voters?

The Enemy Among Us

A few weeks ago I wrote about the county mask mandate where I live now and the many people who turned out to protest it. The police had declared they would not enforce the mandate. Even so, I started seeing a lot more people wearing masks, so I thought we’d made some progress. But maybe not.

This week the county health director resigned. However, I didn’t know until yesterday that she and her family had received threats and harassment. I learned about the threats and harassment only because it was reported in St. Louis media; the local newpaper didn’t bother to mention it.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Amber Elliott took over as director of the St. Francois County public health department in January, excited to take the position after serving five years as assistant director and a communicable disease nurse for the department.

Elliott was looking forward to tackling issues such as opioid addiction, lead poisoning and childhood trauma with her staff of nearly two dozen employees.

She did not expect that within a few months her small health department about an hour south of St. Louis would be overwhelmed with fighting a pandemic. But what has been even more surprising are the threats and harassment she and her family have faced as she works to protect her community.

“There’s been many over the course of eight months, to personal attacks on Facebook calling me every name in the book, to calling me and cussing me and saying I’m stupid and I’m incompetent and I don’t know what I’m doing, of course the pandemic is fake, and all those type of things,” Elliott said.

People told her they were following her, that they were watching her. They took pictures of her, her husband and her two elementary school-age children in public and posted them online with remarks she doesn’t want to repeat.

Citing the need to protect her children and after receiving another promising job offer as a nurse, Elliott resigned last week as director. Her last day will be Nov. 20.

It turns out that Elliott is the 12th local health director to resign in Missouri since the pandemic hit, according to Kelley Vollmar, chair of the Missouri Association of Local Public Health Agencies. Vollmar also has been threatened.

Vollmar said she has experienced harassment being a director as well. As a domestic violence survivor, she had worked to keep the location of her home private, but people searched her tax records, divorce records, committees she’s served on and posted information online to determine where she lived, she said. …

… A gun shop owner in the county uses his Facebook page to attack her credibility, warning that gun owners will “decide they’ve had enough of the lies.” Someone, she said, called her husband saying she was out with another man. People posted pictures of her on social media, altered to make her look like Adolf Hitler or comparing the health department to Nazis.

I’m assuming most of these thugs are Trump supporters. So our real-world brownshirts who support the fascist dictator wannabe Trump ridicule a health director by comparing her to a Nazi. Work that one out. Not exactly geniuses, these folks.

The Post-Dispatch article goes on to discuss health directors and other officials around the country who have been threatened and harassed for doing their jobs and trying to keep people safe. These thugs live among us, and they aren’t going to evaporate if Donald Trump loses the election.

Yesterday the U.S. reported a world record of more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases in single day. We’re Number One!

St. Francois County is currently averaging 65 new cases of covid per 100,000 residents per day. Most of the people I know here are over 65, and a lot of them have been pretty much housebound since last spring to stay safe from the pandemic. And the county mask mandate has expired and will not be renewed.

If we can get through the next few days without widespread violence related to the election, we’re going to be extremely lucky.

“Militia groups and other armed nonstate actors pose a serious threat to the safety and security of American voters,” said the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a nonprofit organization that researches political violence and has tracked more than 80 extremist groups in recent months. The project’s report said Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Oregon “are at highest risk of increased militia activity in the election and post-election period.”

Unfounded rumors spreading in right-wing circles on Facebook and throughout conservative media have fixated for weeks on the notion that civil war is nigh. The longtime radio and TV commentator Glenn Beck has plied his millions of followers with the idea that the left has an Election Day “playbook” for civil strife.

“The Left” has no such “playbook.” This is not to say that no U.S. leftie ever committed an act of violence, but the Left right now just wants people to vote and for the votes to be counted. It’s the Right that is much more likely to disrupt the election. See, for example, Self-Proclaimed ‘Proud Boy’ Arrested for Threatening to Blow Up North Dakota Polling Place: Police.

And this:

In Michigan, two right-wing operatives were charged with voter intimidation after robocalls that falsely warned that the names of mail-in voters would be placed in a public database used for arrest warrants and debt collection.

I’m not sure what’s to be done with this situation. It’s going to be with us for a long, long time.

Update: This just reported.

Joe Biden’s presidential campaign canceled a Friday event in Austin, Texas, after harassment from a pro-Trump contingent. …

… But when the Biden campaign bus drove to Austin, it was greeted by a blockade of pro-Trump demonstrators, leading to what one Texas House representative described as an escalation “well beyond safe limits.”…

… Historian Dr. Eric Cervini was driving to help with the Biden campaign stop when he filmed a line of pickup trucks along the highway, many of them flying Trump flags. The drivers were “waiting to ambush the Biden/Harris campaign bus as it traveled from San Antonio to Austin,” Cervini tweeted.

“These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road,” he alleged. “They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car.” …

Footage from a CBS affiliate in Austin shows Trump supporters with signs and bullhorns surrounding the bus when it parked, with one person screaming that Biden was a communist.

Armed protesters against pandemic safety measures rally at the state capitol in Lansing, Michigan on April 15, 2020.