The New York Times is reporting that Russia has seized Crimea, and the usual armchair warriors are thumping their chests and declaring that this must not stand. Exactly what the United States is supposed to do about it, short of declaring war on Russia, is not entirely clear.
Mr. Obama is under bipartisan pressure to take action to stop Mr. Putin. A dozen senators from both parties wrote him a letter Friday arguing that “the U.S. should make use of the tools at its disposal,†including targeted sanctions and asset seizure.
“Now is the time for U.S. leadership,†said one of those senators, Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida. “The U.S. and the European Union should take meaningful measures to demonstrate to the Russian government that military action against Ukraine is intolerable and will carry significant consequences for Moscow.â€
None of the senators, however, outlined ideas not already on the table in the Situation Room. And besides, Mr. Obama needs Russian support in the midst of critical talks over Syria’s civil war and Iran’s nuclear program.
“What can we do?†asked Fiona Hill, a Brookings Institution scholar who was the government’s top intelligence officer on Russia during the Georgia war when Mr. Putin deflected Western agitation. “We’ll talk about sanctions. We’ll talk about red lines. We’ll basically drive ourselves into a frenzy. And he’ll stand back and just watch it. He just knows that none of the rest of us want a war.â€
Yeah, pretty much. But from now until the 2016 elections, and beyond, Republicans will be giving themselves bruises with all the chest thumping. It’s so cheap and easy to strike strong and resolute poses and make declarations about “leadership” when you actually can’t do anything.
Oh, wait, Congress actually does have the power to declare war, doesn’t it? So if they’re so keen to go to war, just tell them to write up a freakin’ war resolution and put it up for a vote. Take a stand, why dontcha?
On the other end of the scale, there are a few whackjobs out there who seriously believe President Obama somehow enticed Russia to attack Ukraine so he can start a thermonuclear war. See also this guy, but be warned there’s an automatic video that will play whether you want it to or not.
It’s so cheap and easy to strike strong and resolute poses and make declarations about “leadership†when you actually can’t do anything.
I told you Marco Rubio is the Senator without a cause. Now he can mug for the cameras by buffeting Obama with screams for “leadership”. Rubio is such a creep. He reminds me of the character( Dr. Einstein) that Peter Lorre played in Arsenic and old Lace.
Actually he’d make better funeral director than a Senator… because his feigned sincerity is to be expected.
We can – to varying degrees of success – use sanctions on smaller countries, like Iran, Cuba, etc.
But what sanctions will we use against Putin and Russia, that won’t eventually bite us and the European Union nations, in the @$$?
Most of Western Europe depends on Russia’s natural gas.
If Putin decides he wants to, he can close the valves – something he’s threatened to do before.
That would cause some serious economic damage.
We don’t want a war with Russia, and Putin doesn’t want a war with the West.
Imo – Vladimir Putin wants to either be “Tsar of All the Russia’s,” or a mini-Stalin – a, “Stalinette,” or “Stalinitchka,” if you will.
Btw- I’m 1/2 Russkie and 1/2 Uke.
I’m fluent in Russian, but my Ukrainian, once pretty fluent, is very rusty.
VERY RUSTY!!!
Let me tell you about us Slavs – When people from other parts of the world see a glass with water up to the middle, the “Optimists” think ‘Ah, that glass is half-full,’ the “Pessimists” think, ‘Oh, that glass is half-empty,’ we Slavs, instead, think, ‘Hey, who drank half of that damn vodka!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!’
Back to the subject at hand – I don’t think that there’s much we can do.
The Russians and Ukrainians have a long-standing love-hate relationship with Russia.
The Eastern part of the country has a lot of “Ethnic Russians,” and loves Russia, and the Western part longs to tear away from Russia, and join the West.
And that’s been going on for hundred’s, if not a thousand, or more, years.
Putin doesn’t want to let Ukraine move any further to the West. And if he can, he’ll do his damnedest to keep it tied to Russia.
My best guess, is that I doubt he’ll try an open series of battles.
Instead, he’ll probably use unmarked troops and vehicles to make a mess out of transportation in and out of Ukraine., and hope that the people call for more Russian intervention, to intercede in the existing Russian intervention.
This way, he he’ll have some cover, and can come across as some sort of a “savior.”
I could be wrong.
Bill Kristol always is.
For you weekend viewing pleasure, here’s Bill Maher taking Kristol down, in-his-face, style!!!!:
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/watch-bill-maher-call-out-bill-kristol
Gulag…Any relation to Vlad the Impaler? 🙂
Vladimir is a very popular name, Swami.
It was the name of the leader who brought Christianity to Russia/Ukraine. At that time, Russia was a mostly Pagan land.
The story is, that a little over 1,000 years ago, he summoned the leaders of all of the major religions to his capital.
And he found out that they all had some plusses and minuses, in each religion.
He like the Muslim religion best, because it allowed a man to have as many wives as he wanted.
And he was just about to declare all of Mother Russia a Muslim country, when he was told that drinking alcohol was forbidden.
He pulled a “HUH?!?!?!?! WHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WA ZUP WID DAT!?!?!?!?!?!?
When the Christian said he could drink alcohol all he wanted, he agreed to make the nation a Christian one.
And he supposedly said, “Alcohol is the life’s blood of Mother Russia!!!”
I guess he figured, as Tsar, “Of All Of The Russia’s,” he could get all of the nooky he wanted on the side, anyway.
But no booze at all, was a deal-breaker deal!!!
You know, I think we are all overlooking the obvious answer. As you recall, the previous president, Dubster, has “looked into Putin’s soul.” So, pretty obviously he is the Cincinnatus on whom we must call for sage advice.
Cundgulag, I need to ask you a stupid question. My grandfather was born in Kiev and my grandmother in Partizanska Lupca.They spoke “Russian” as the language of the household. Due to the bordering of Slovakia with Ukraine and the place where my grandfather was born, it must have been Ukrainian. I have thought of Ukrainian as being almost like a dialect of Russian. Am I totally wrong? This may seem like a stupid question, but, it might help to answer a quandary I have about my father’s language acquisition. Thanks, and a tip of Luksusowa to you.
Typical Dubya.. You’d think after sharing such an intimate experience of looking into another man’s soul he’d be a little more discreet and not blab it to the whole world. I wonder if Vladimir feels used?
Putin’s intentions are not clear. Russia crossed into Georgia 6 years ago to protect ethnic Russians in Georgia. The threat to Russians was real. Some interviewer at Fox had egg all over his face, interviewing an American who had been visiting Russian relatives and got out under heavy gunfire. What was amusing was the expression on the interviewers face when the American expressed how grateful she was to the Russian troops who rescued her. (From the onslaught of the Georgians) When Fox was portraying Russia as the evil aggressor.
The point being – Putin will ignore borders to protect ethnic Russians. And it doesn’t look like Putin intended to stay in Georgia. That may be the case in Ukraine, though the strategic port that Russia has (and won’t surrender to Ukraine) might be enough incentive for Putin to foster a breakaway of Crimea from Ukraine. Technically, Crimea is an autonomous state within Ukraine – exactly how that works, I’m not clear. Maybe Gulag can explain.
My gut feeling is that Putin doesn’t plan on staying in Ukraine, but he needs that southern warm-water (doesn’t freeze up solid in winter) port. The faction that took power last week has expressed how they dislike Russia and Russians in Ukraine. That probably got Putin’s back up.
From what I can tell, historically there was a fair amount of cross-migration across the former Soviet Union. Russians settled in the foreign territories (except Muslim countries like Chechnia) – and people migrated TO Russia. The point being, there are a lot of ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. Off topic, there are ultra-national factions including skinheads who want to drive ‘foreign’ Russians out of the Mother country. The gang attacks leave dead bodies behind.
I’m far from expert – my wife is Russian, though. None of this is as simple as the GOP would make it out to be. The key question is Putin’s long range plans, and the intention of the majority in Crimea. A civil war is an ugly thing – expensive – and civilians in the combat zone pay the highest price. If a clear and very solid majority of Crimeans want to break away and align with Russia, it may be the best answer if you factor cost of the alternatives.
Once again, I suggest a consultation with the master of foreign affairs, Eric Margolis. His latest piece addresses this issue, taking history into account. Imagine that.
goatherd,
The Slavic languages are very similar.
The grammar is identical.
A Russian can make out most of what a Uke, a Pole, or a Belorussian is saying to them – and vice versa.
The best analogy I can make is, think or someone from Boston or NY trying to talk to a person who’s as Cajun as Cajun can be – you can make out what they’re saying, and they, you. It just takes some effort.
On the other hand, the further South and North you go, like say Lithuania or Georgia, and their native languages are very different.
Of course, the USSR mandated that everyone under its political influence speak Russian. Speaking your native language was often forbidden.
You can meet people around my age or older, who are from a variety of different former states of the USSR that speak fluent Russian, but know only snippet’s of their native language.
And thanks for the Luksusowa!
Good stuff!
I haven’t had that in 6 years.
Nor have I had Stoli in a long time.
Since I’ve been unemployed, it’s the cheap sh*t for me!!!
Thank you CUNDgulag. That’s kind of how I had it figured. It just stands to reason that my grandparents spoke Ukrainian at home instead of Russian. But, when I was a kid, on occasion we would run into someone who spoke a slavic language, a Polish friend’s grandfather for example, and they and my father would exchange a few sentences and the pace would gradually pick up. They would both be smiling and talking. Who knows what they were talking about? Probably just pleasantries.
As the situation in Ukraine was heating up, I was listening to Dianne Rehm and a caller, who identified himself as an Ukrainian expat, suggested that, although it sounded extreme, he could foresee a situation where Ukraine was divided into a pro-Russian state and an independent Ukraine. That doesn’t seem out of the question at this point.
“… he could foresee a situation where Ukraine was divided into a pro-Russian state and an independent Ukraine. That doesn’t seem out of the question at this point.”
Yeah, a split Ukraine is a possibility.
Though Pooty-poot Putin wants it ALL!
I hate the thought of a Russian controlled Ukraine, or a split one.
It’s kind of like the US.
I’d be more than happy to let the old Confederate States go.
But then, how many billions or trillions will we have to spend building a wall to keep the hick “Illegal Aliens” from coming North?
FYI – some more info on Ukraine, and it’s many languages and cultures:
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/the-ukraine-crisis-in-three-maps/
WWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY OT!
Paul Krugman is leaving Princeton, for CCNY.
CCNY was famous back in the mid 20th Century for its numerous illustrious professors.
Hopefully, Krugman is starting a trend!
Also, too, OT – from the files of, “ZOINKS! Am I embarrassed! I thought this person had died a long, long time ago!!!”:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/02/alain-resnais_n_4885454.html
“Exactly what the United States is supposed to do about it, short of declaring war on Russia, is not entirely clear.”
– It is not entirely clear only to those who are not willing to do anything. Here is a small list of things that could be done to check the Russian aggression: http://clarissasblog.com/2014/03/01/but-what-can-we-do/
These are some of the things that the Russian dissidents have been begging Western governments to put in practice for years. None of these suggestions are the least bit violent.
Clarissa,
The problem is that if you try to harm Putin and his Russia thugs, they can shut-off their gas and oil, which supplies most of Europe with those commodities.
And so, for all the harm we’ll do Russia economically, they can go tit-for-tat, economically.
Boehner says he has a plan that will bring Russia to its knees. He is boycotting Russian vodka.
I think you’re wrong on that one, John.. By the looks of Boehner’s whiskey glow he’s most likely a bourbon drinker. But then again, he might be drinking after shave lotion or wood alcohol. Usually when you get to the advanced stages it doesn’t matter what the substance is..as long as it keeps the pink elephants away.
Swami,
Then I’m glad I’m pouring shots for my pink elephant bud’s in the room!
They’re guests who are easy to get rid of!!!
One s… sh… sho… SHOT, and they’re GONE!
Unlike my sister and brother-in-law,who brought a liter of Stoli and a bottle of wine for me and my Mom’s 56th and 82nd birthdays, and he drank over half of it in shots, while I drank a about a third, leaving little bit for me to drink, besides my weekly bottle of cheap-sh*t vodka to glug for the rest of the week.
OT, great chart – Union Density Across the World.
I have a modest proposal…
How about if Russia _buys_ Crimea from the Ukraine? The method is simple; Russia need merely pay off the Ukraine’s foreign debt (which of course no-one expected to recoup), and in exchange Ukraine lets Crimea go without objections. Of course it’s a forced sale, and pricey, but it’s cheaper than war, or even long-term diplomatic tensions.
Hard on the Tatars, of course…
Paradoctor, your plan will never work. It makes too much sense.
I was hoping Bush / Cheney would do a similar buy out of Saddam in Iraq. Those boys were more interested in making things go boom and showing the world the power of the us military. We all see how well that worked out. Iraq is still a bloody mess.
So, who was it that stole all the vowels from the Polish alphabet???
I don’t know, but I think we can eliminate the Welsh from the suspect list.
“You just don’t, in the 21st century, behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on a completely trumped-up pretext,” Kerry told the CBS program “Face the Nation”.
Speaking of Iraq.. Did we ever find those weapons of mass destruction? I’m sure we must have, after all, we knew where they were. They were just north, or south, or east, or west of Baghdad.
Oh, maybe THAT’S why the Germans kept invading the Poles, the Uke’s and the Russians?!?!?!?!
Germany suffers from a severe vowel shortage:
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=german+language+versus+others+you+tube&qpvt=german+language+versus+others+you+tube&FORM=VDRE#view=detail&mid=5BB28465C67257446FCD5BB28465C67257446FCD
If you haven’t seen this before, don’t watch it with anything in your mouth, or you’ll need a new computer.
I was reading a book called Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. Gladwell mentioned that the US spent $250 million on a giant war game in 2002 against a hypothetical rogue state in the Middle East . In retrospect, that was Iraq. In the war games. the rogue state not only won but badly beat the army, air force and especially the navy of the U.S. In an initial battle all of the aircraft carriers, all the cruisers, and 20,000 US sailors were “lost” to a fleet of row boats armed with portable missiles. That would have been far worse than Pearl Harbor. The key was a decentralized response planned by a retired Marine Corps officer named Paul Van Riper. that’s essentially what beat the Russians in Afghanistan and the Israelis in Lebanon and is giving the US military fits in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
So the Ukraine can’t beat the Russians but the Ukrainians can.
As for Rubio, I suspect he’s pandering to the Cuban voters in Florida and possibly to an audience of Fox News viewers with an aim of bolstering his national position within the republican party.
Rubio’s problem isn’t who to pander to…It’s more of a case that he doesn’t know what to pander about. Rubio’s dedication to purpose exemplifies the expression.. Running from pillar to post.
Vanna white stole all the vowels, duh!
I think that war game was against Iran. Iran’s military has not been destroyed, as Iraq’s was by Bush 41 and stormin’ Norman in operation desert storm in the early 90’s. Clinton continued to bomb Iraq almost daily for his 8 year term. By the time Bush 43 launched operation shock and awe, Iraq had almost no defense, and no air power. Like shooting ducks in a barrel. It was a vastly way for a superpower to behave. If there’s a hell, I know who will be there.
If there’s a hell, I know who will be there.
Well if Gulag keeps up with dissin’ Jesus, he’s gonna ended up with a front row seat.
“Running from pillar to post” sounds like a nervous bladder symptom. I hear he suffers from dry mouth.
In 1994 we actually guaranteed Ukraine’s security in order to convince them to hand over their nukes to the Russians. But an American guarantee of Ukrainian security is insane now and was insane at the time. US out of NATO, please!
Another expression that fits Rubio is…All dressed up and nowhere to go.
I guess I should be more sympathetic to Rubio’s dilemma. After all, he’s been billed as the GOP savior, and yet he’s got no clue of what’s expected of a GOP savior. Performance anxiety must abound within him seeing how traditionally saviors are expected to do miracles.. and Rubio can’t seem to get even the slightest legislative miracle off the ground.
On the ‘Worth reading list’ about Russian & Ukraine..
http://rall.com/2014/03/03/syndicated-column-the-four-horsemen-of-the-american-apocalypse#comments
I don’t know the author at all, but he makes a good argument, consistent with what my wife has told me.. she’s on the Russian web sites.
And Ed Kilgore at Washington Monthly has some interesting observations about fallout..
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2014_03/some_real_investor_uncertainty049329.php
I’m thinking that if Putin does not have territorial ambitions and
if he invaded Crimea to protect to protect the Russian-speaking majority there and
if the anti-Russian hostility in the new government precipitated the invasion, as Putin claims then (yeah, I’m going somewhere with this)
the negotiated settlement hinges on guarantees of civil rights for Russian-speaking Ukrainians by the new government – and we have leverage there.
If me no ifs. I don’t care whether Putin annexes everything between Moscow and Warsaw, it’s none of our affair. I say the US can go to war with Russia about all that right after Uruguay does, and not a moment sooner.