Nate Silver keeps advising to not get excited over any one poll, and here is an example. A few days ago a Pew poll showed Romney closing the “gender gap” and drawing equal to President Obama in support among women. Much crowing came from the Right.
But Nate Silver says today that, in fact, the gender gap is almost as extreme as it has ever been. Even factoring in the Pew poll, women support the President over Romney by 9 percentage points. Romney is 8 points ahead of the President among men, however. So there’s a significant gap.
I’m getting really irritated whenever I see a headline declaring which candidate is up or down someplace, and it’s based on only one poll.
I have no evidence, just a gut feeling (and yeah, I know how unrelible that can be – even with a huge gut like mine), but I suspect that more than a few handfuls of women are telling pollers and their husbands that, “Of course, Mitt’s the one I’m voting for!”, and then, on Election Day, will vote for President Obama.
I never read polls on any thing. Boring. I do wonder what kind of a life Nate Silver has.