Is Mittens Toast?

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The latest data at Nate’s place:

Florida VOTE
PROJECTION		 CHANCE
OF WIN
Newt Gingrich 37.6% 66%
Mitt Romney 30.0 32
Ron Paul 15.2 1

All last week, the chart showed Mittens as the overwhelming favorite in Florida, with a 90-something chance to win. Now that’s gone. almost overnight.

The Florida primary is nine days away, and a lot can happen in nine days. But Romney’s strength (again, this is what Nate said awhile back) is that he was positioned to dominate the early primaries, and that’s not happening. And there aren’t that many primaries in February. A bunch of caucuses, yes, including the ever-entertaining Nevada caucus. There’s a primary in Missouri that won’t award actual delegates.

So after Florida the only “real” primaries are in Arizona and Michigan on February 28, and then there’s super Tuesday on March 6. So one could argue that a big win in Florida could give Newt the “big mo” going into Super Tuesday. At the very least, if Newt wins Florida as decisively as he won South Carolina — still an if, with nine days to go — it ought to cement his status as the Favorite Not-Mittens Candidate, and Santorum and Ron Paul likely would fade away.

Democrats are surely giggly with joy at this development. On the other hand, Newt’s blown it before; he can always blow it again.

Update — speaking of Ron Paul — Rand Son of Ron was detained at the Nashville airport for refusing to be patted down after the body scanner showed an “anomaly.” Y’all can go ahead and have fun guessing what the “anomaly” is; the news story doesn’t say.

Update: More news stories say that Rand Son of Ron was not detained at the Nashville airport, but neither was he allowed to board the plane.

2 thoughts on “Is Mittens Toast?”

  1. They don’t just not like Mitt. They REALLY don’t like Mitt.

    And if they want to go with Gingrich, who are we to stop them?
    The question is, what can the money people do to stop them?

    Never doubt for a second Newt’s ability to do something stupid. And Lord knows, I’m sure the powers-that-be can find more dirt in his past, than there is the American prairie lands. They won’t even need a heavy-duty shovel, a child’s little sand shovel should do nicely.

    As for AquaRand, from the WaPo:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/us-sen-rand-paul-says-he-was-stopped-by-nashville-airport-security-for-anomaly-on-knee/2012/01/23/gIQArHT5KQ_story.html

    “A TSA official speaking on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal screening policies said Paul was never detained. The official said an alarm set off when Paul went through routine airport screening, and Paul refused to receive additional screening. People who refuse to go through airport security are not allowed to get on a plane, the official said. Local police escorted Paul out of the screening area, the official said.”

    And so, he was not detained, but he was allowed to leave.

    Why is it that I think that if it was me and not a US Senator, and they found some anomaly near my knee, and that if I tried to walk away, a SWAT team would have either sacked me like a QB facing the Giants D-line, or shot like a chained little bird that Dick Cheney’s been aiming at?

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