Nate Silver’s most recent data:
| South Carolina | VOTE PROJECTION |
CHANCE OF WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Newt Gingrich | 35.4% | 62% |
| Mitt Romney | 32.7 | 38 |
| Ron Paul | 16.0 | 0 |
Obviously Newt’s recent racist tirade won over much of the Confederate vote in SC. But there’s also this, Nate says:
Some of this, I suspect, is because voters in both parties seem to have developed a resistance to falling in line when the news media expects them to. There were numerous reversals of momentum in the 2008 Democratic primaries, some of which seemed to represent an open rebellion by voters against the news media’s expectations of how they might behave. Even candidates as strong as George W. Bush in 2000 — who may have been the best non-incumbent primary candidate ever, with exceptionally strong fund-raising totals and polling numbers — have encountered a few bumps along the road.
Personally, I think seeing a bunch of smug, overpaid “pundits” on television schmooze about how Candidate X is “inevitable” before votes are cast does pre-dispose some of us to support Anybody But X. The only thing that’s saved Mitt’s ass so far is that the “Anybodies” are such nobodies.
From what I’ve read, Mitt had a really bad debate last night. He got booed for his tax return evasion. Richard Adams says Romney as much as admitted that his tax returns are a political liability. He also actually referred to his own Massachusetts health reform plan as “Romneycare.”
On top of that, the Romney campaign is circulating a video that shows Mittens being insufferably 1 percentish toward a heckler. Someone off camera asks Romney what he plans to do for the 99 percent, and Romney replies —
Let me tell you something. America is a great nation, because we’re a united nation. And those who are trying to divide the nation, as you’re trying to do here, and as our president is doing, are hurting this country seriously. The right course for America is not to try to divide America, and try and divide us between one and another. it’s to come together as a nation.
And if you’ve got a better model — if you think China’s better, or Russia’s better, or Cuba’s better, or North Korea’s better — I’m glad to hear all about it.
But you know what? America’s right, and you’re wrong.
This is what they think is a “good” answer? Someone said Romney might as well start wearing a top hat and a monocle.
Mitt, the 1%er, is trying to channel Nixon’s “Silent Majority,” and is dog-whistling, “America, LOVE IT – or leave it!”
And I wonder what it is MITT 3.0 is worrying about?
-Is it that he pays more to maintain his accounts in The Cayman Islands than he pays to the IRS?
-Is it that he pays even LESS than 10-15%?
-O, is it what he tithe’s to THE MORMON CHURCH?
I personally, don’t give a rat’s sexually abused santorum producing cheeks, but I think the Dominionst Christian Bubba’s and Bubbette’s may. Mitt may be paying more for ‘magic underpants’ in a year than he makes in speaking fees.
Granted, the only Repub pretender that is older than me is Ron Paul. But, if I had Romney’s money or even Newt’s money, I’d be living in the Cayman Islands, or the west coast of Costs Rica or some place with blue skies and balmy breezes.
Chief — Seriously. I do wonder why someone like Mittens wants to be President at all, except to further rig the system so he can get richer.
“Let me tell you something. America is a great nation, because we’re a united nation. And those who are trying to divide the nation, as you’re trying to do here, and as our president is doing, are hurting this country seriously. The right course for America is not to try to divide America, and try and divide us between one and another. it’s to come together as a nation.”
I’d like to find even one Republican politician that does not fit the bolded description to a “T.”
As I have maintained for a long time: if you want to find out about a Republican, read or listen to what (s)he accuses his opponents of doing/being… They are honest to a fault, if they only knew it!
“I do wonder why someone like Mittens wants to be President at all, except to further rig the system so he can get richer.”
After a certain amount, it is no longer about the money, but either about the POWER or the FAME.
It doesn’t take much of a person to take money away from other people. Let’s face it, what is his [positive] legacy now? About as close to zero as one can get… The Presidency is merely a feather in his cap (just as it was for W).
I like Romney’s South Carolina campaign garb..He looks like he’s been outfitted by Goodwill Industries. The blue jeans he was wearing had a frayed hem in the back down by his shoe heels, and an outlined blemish on the back pocket resembling a can of dip. For some reason I think Romney is using subliminal messaging to win votes. But, I remain unconvinced that Romney qualifies as a good old boy.
Why is Mitt running? I had an interesting discussion about the ‘entitlement’ mentality of kings and the court of medieval Europe. The kings and nobles believed they made the world go ’round and they thought the feudal serfs should be grateful they had it so good. Of course, the serfs were creating the wealth that the nobility confiscated – legally.
The ‘entitlement’ attitude isn’t confined to aristocrats. Estimates are that around a third of American colonists supported King George in the Revolutionary War. There may be a gene that makes some people NEED to deify the Alpha. In the 21st century, that status isn’t determined by a bloodline as much as a credit line. Some people think Trump or Romney is qualified exclusively and entirely because they are rich.
Mitt and his kind BELIEVE they are the source of wealth. In my book, labor and the average consumer are the primary source of wealth. There are a few gifted souls like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs whose genius created markets & produced real wealth, but Mitt was born a rich kid who learned how to play Monopoly with real companies. Looting companies is a lot different than producing a product or servicre.
Mitt is out to do battle and slay government if he can. The only legitimate function of government he recognizes is that t can protect and enlarge his empire. He resented that government imposes taxes, sets rules and standards through financial regulation and interferes with looting natural resources with environmental regulation. To borrow a line from the Blues Brothers, he’s on a mission from God. He wants to bring home the crown to capitalism and if history is a guide, destroy the power of democracy to subjugate business.
I’d assume it’s for the same reason George W. wanted it – to do a lot of favors for their friends, and to be the ultimate big shot, to win the ultimate prize.
He wants to bring home the crown to capitalism and if history is a guide, destroy the power of democracy to subjugate business.
Yeah! Excellent analysis, Doug.
In the quote by Nate, it’s worth pointing out that the main reason Bush was such ‘an amazing’ non-incumbent candidate is that he had the money pretty much locked up by late November of 1999. The other viable candidates of that period, such as Elizabeth Dole, looked at Bush’s war chest and realized they didn’t have a chance. And by the way, one of Bush’s best fundraisers was, oh the memories, Kenneth Lay.
Bush’s nomination was bought and paid for before the first vote was cast in the primaries. I take nothing for granted but I’m grateful the Republicans are so disorganized this year. Of course, when the ads start running in late summer and the early fall, the media will be selling themselves to the highest bidder. It’s going to be nasty all the way to midnight on election night.
Doug,
“There may be a gene that makes some people NEED to deify the Alpha.”
It’s probably right next to the God gene.
I would bet that when you scratch most authoritarian followers, you’ll find that they’re also pretty religious.
And if they’re not, my guess is that whichever human figure of authority they follow, then serves as a substitute for God(s).