Polls show Newt taking the lead in Iowa polls, with Ron Paul moving up into second and Mittens dropping to third. Nate Silver says (with a number of caveats),
If I were setting odds as of this morning, I might assign Mr. Gingrich about a 45 or 50 percent chance of winning Iowa, followed by Mr. Paul at 25 percent and Mr. Romney at 15 percent, reserving a small possibility of a comeback by Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann or Rick Perry.
Conventional wisdom says Newt’s campaign organization is a mess, however. Mittens has the muscle on the ground.
But Paul Krugman writes,
Mr. Gingrich has some advantages none of the previous challengers had. He is by no means the deep thinker he imagines himself to be, but he’s a glib speaker, even when he has no idea what he’s talking about. And my sense is that he’s also very good at doublethink — that even when he knows what he’s saying isn’t true, he manages to believe it while he’s saying it. So he may not implode like his predecessors.
Paul Krugman is politely saying that Newt has the advantage of being a skilled conman. I can’t argue with that.
muldoon – apparently, years ago, he couldn’t con his way into being granted tenure by the third-ranked college where he was teaching geography/history – and now he claims to have been hired by Freddie/Fannie because of his renown as a leading historian?
A charlatan, quack, fake, mountebank, rip-off artist, imposter, con artist, fraud, swindler.
Newt – implode?
No, not likely.
No, Newt’s about one double-bacon, extra-cheese burger with gravy covered fries away from EXPLODING!
Newt’s the ID of modern Conservatism. He’s horny, nasty, vicious, and stupid, but thinks he’s the smartest man in any room he occupies.
Yes, please let him be the Republican candidate! Let the American voter get a good look at old Newt “The Wizard of Ooze” Gingrich – probably the greatest political grifter in this countries history.
And if they vote him in, we’ll have no one to blame but our stupid selves. Or, rather, the stupid among ourselves.
The funny thing is reading comments by conservatives on various blogs, who, when they’re not cluelessly belly-aching about Obama’s use of a teleprompter, are aching for an Obama-Newt debate matchup, really believing that the Newtster (conservativism actually) is going to demolish BHO, once and for all.
I’m looking forward to it to – I think it would be Obama’s golden moment to cut Newt and his style of conservativism to shreds. I hope Newt wins because it will be the closest things we have to an honest debate of ideas, instead of the vacuous puffery from the likes of Romney or the deranged paranoia from the other crazies. And Ron Paul – that’s a whole ‘nother story.
Nate thinks Mittens won’t even be SECOND? Whoa!
I second moonbat’s comment. Republicans continue to grossly underestimate Obama’s formidable intellect at their great peril. I say this, however, with the caveat that large swathes of the electorate may have no clue as to the magnitude of the intellectual drubbings Obama they will be administering next year. As Felicity would agree, Newt is one talented-ass charlatan. Dude can sling the humbug.