It’s CNN’s headline, folks — “Al-Sadr in trouble, Iraq headed for meltdown.” The Independent has another alarming headline — “Iraq implodes as Shia fights Shia.” And if you need further alarming, read Juan Cole.
Professor Cole says that violence is breaking out in many parts of Iraq, including Baghdad and Najaf, the latter of which is often mentioned in President Bush’s Iraq success myths.
But even though Iraq is either melting down or imploding, or both, the warbloggers are curiously not on top of this so far. In fact, the only thing worrying the gang at the Weekly Standard site is a trip taken to Iraq in 2002 by some Dem senators that was bankrolled by Saddam Hussein’s government. Nothing going on in Iraq now is, apparently, interesting to them.
In other news, this morning about 30 monks disrupted a carefully controlled tour of Lhasa being conducted by the Chinese government for foreign tourists. The resistance is not completely crushed, it seems. You can read about it on the other blog.
Can we call it a civil war now?
If the current rationalization for our staying there is that it would devolve into chaos if we left, but it’s already devolving into chaos, does that mean we can go home?
We could even declare victory, if it would make Shrub feel better – it’s not like anyone expects anything he says to reflect reality anymore.
Right-unfortunately the wingnuts will fail to heed the lessons they should have learned from the Vietnam & Iraq fiascoes and will claim “we were stabbed in the back,” thereby preserving their Dolchstosslegende for another generation. They will also blame the people who thought invading Iraq was a Very Bad Idea for the lack of success instead of looking into the mirror as they should.
At the risk of saying ‘I told you so..’ Much of the success in Iraq comes from the US arming and bribing various militias to :
A: not shoot at US troops
B: Provide security for their own faction from other factions
C: Turn in or fight ‘terroroists’
D: not shoot at US troops
Now these militias like the power, and the US bribes, and they are not about to turn in their weapons to the national military because, toothless, they can’t protect their faction, persecute rival factions, and they know that toothless, the bribery money will dry up faster than water in the desert.
For the benefit of short-term gains, the reduction of violence, we have created a predicament which WILL keep us in Iraq for 100 years. We can ONLY have a reduction of violence by bribing warlords not to fight each other or the US. But as soon as the national goverment tries to exert any power which threatnes their little kingdoms, all hell will break loose. As the current chaos shows.
ClassicBush strategy: we will exit Iraq when there is no more oil for US oil companies. Every move seems briliantly designed to entangle us more.
“At the risk of saying ‘I told you so..’ Much of the success in Iraq comes from the US arming and bribing various militias to :
A: not shoot at US troops
B: Provide security for their own faction from other factions
C: Turn in or fight ‘terroroists’
D: not shoot at US troops”
Yes Doug, but the Mahdi cease fire has been the other key to the decrease in violence. Keep in mind that what we are seeing right now is Shia militia/Shia militia conflict. It is the Sunnis who the US military has been buying off with guns and money. These “volunteers” are now armed and ready. Sunni/Shia battles are now inevitable and quite ominous. Unless 150,000 US troops are staying in Iraq forever, the war will come.
RC
We will side with one faction, and someone will accuse Iran of supporting the enemy faction. Sound like a plan?
“I do not foresee any obtainable objectives”
“I believe the longer we stay, the more difficult it will be to leave, and I am prepared to accept the consequences of our withdrawal”
These quotes are from a speech that the then freshman congressman John McCain gave in a speech on Sept. 28, 1983. He was opposing The Reagan administration seeking Congressional authorization to support the deployment of U.S. Marines in Lebanon. One month later 241 marines were killed in a terrorist attack, and we left anyway.
Oh wait that was before Iraq did not attack us on Sept. 11, 2001. How stupid of me?