The good news today is from the Wall Street Journal: Rudy Giuliani has lost his lead for the GOP nomination in national polls.
After holding a double-digit advantage over his nearest rivals just six weeks ago, the former New York City mayor now is tied nationally with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 20% among Republicans, just slightly ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 17% and Arizona Sen. John McCain at 14%. Other polls show Mr. Giuliani’s lead shrinking in Florida, one of the states he has built his strategy around.
Certainly the entire GOP field is a sorry mess, but Rudy truly frightens me.
When Rudy Giuliani’s soft lead in the national polls evaporates, suddenly he’ll be just another GOP hopeful lining up to get his head sliced off in the first big primary and caucus contests. … the big picture is clear: Rudy’s lost his nationwide lead wide.
And the downward momentum will probably push him still further too.. With dismal numbers in the early races and lukewarm numbers nationwide, what’s his political strategy again? Is there any rationale for still calling him the frontrunner?
Yesterday Giuliani was admitted to Barnes Hospital in St. Louis for “flu-like symptoms.” I’m not predicting this, exactly, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Giuliani suddenly develops more health problems that will force him to withdraw from the race, particularly if his poll numbers continue to slide. See Down With Tyranny on this point, also. When Giuliani dropped out of the 2000 Senate race because of prostate cancer (and other things), Hillary Clinton had gained a 10-point lead over him in the polls.
Adam Nagourney’s account in the New York Times recalls a campaign in trouble:
Mr. Giuliani’s campaign began to falter in March. New York police officers shot and killed an unarmed black man, Patrick Dorismond, after he ran from undercover agents who asked if he had any drugs to sell. Mr. Giuliani authorized the release of Mr. Dorismond’s sealed criminal records from when he was a juvenile and went on Fox News Sunday, where he proclaimed that Mr. Dorismond was “no altar boy.†The remarks ripped across an already polarized city.
Mr. Clinton had already been scheduled to appear the next night at the Bethel A.M.E. Church in Harlem. The church was packed with cameras and reporters as Mrs. Clinton, clasping hands with prominent black leaders, walked in singing “We Shall Overcome,†before delivering a speech accusing Mr. Giuliani of dividing the city.
Mr. Giuliani headed upstate, for a Republican dinner in Binghamton. He spoke for exactly 22 minutes, stood for an eight-minute news conference, and then turned for home. Less than a week later, he abruptly canceled four upstate events because, he said, he wanted to attend the rescheduled opening game of the Yankees.
Mrs. Clinton’s campaign pounced. Overnight, aides arranged a trip for her to the cities Mr. Giuliani had snubbed and worked the telephone with upstate reporters to stoke the story.
The End
By the time Mr. Giuliani stepped in front of the cameras to announce he was dropping out, Republicans had already concluded that the mayor would not stay in the race: indeed, many were praying he would not. His cancer seemed almost beside the point.
If Rudy is trailing as the big primary days approach, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds some excuse to drop out. I’m not saying he will; just that it wouldn’t surprise me.
“If Rudy can’t stand up to a flu bug, how can we expect him to stand up to Osama bin Laden???”
There’s an interesting graphic at TPM that shows the trend in polling results, with the Mike Huckabee line shooting up to meet the falling Rudy line.
GMTA – I was thinking about that “too sick to run anymore” dodge too.
I liked Josh’s observation that the more people get to know him, the more Rudy’s numbers drop. It reminds of the old bumper sticker “The more I know about men, the more I like my dog.”
Pingback: The Heretik : Rude Update
Wow. I thought the exact same thing about him withdrawing due to health reasons when I heard this on the news.
My thought was similar to that of biggerbox. If Rudy folds like a cheap card table just because his poll numbers drop, this country does not need him in the Oval Office. They’d find him in a Jim Bakker-like fetal position under the desk, inside of a week.
I lived in the TriState area during part of Rudy’s heyday.
If he can’t win, he won’t play.
Oh, come on you guys. The man is sick, he had flu-like symptoms and had to go to the hospital. Give him a break. Feel sorry for him. Tee Hee
I can not see how the GOP will not fracture like a pane of glass after the primaries.Whoever wins will shout ‘Follow ME!” but there does not seem to be ANY candidate who does not represent more than a polarized faction of the GOP. This condition is far more typical of Dems historically. (That’s an opinion: I will entertain dissenting points of view.)
Rudy was the most serious threat in an election, because he was perceived as the most liberal Republican because of his stance on abortion. He might have done eill against a perceived ultra-liberal, Senator Clinton. Don’t jump me; I don’t like her because she is to much of a corporate Democrat, just like crooked Republicans, just a different set of doners.But most voters are not interested in the facts.
Republicans will likely pick someone who is to the FAR right, eager to strike down Roe v Wade and pro-war. Which leaves the Republican center unhappy. If the Democratic nominee is far Right – or perceived that way, that leaves the center of both parties dissatisfied. Frankly, I have to read the Constitution to see how the election would be decided if the Electoral College is split 3 ways.
grannyeagle, if he wants us to believe he’s sick, he has to publicly upchuck on a foreign dignitary, in the best Republican tradition!
Way, way back there…Long about 1960…Some reporter asked Harry Truman what he thought of the race for President…
President Truman said he was sure Kennedt would win…Adding something like: “Anyone could beat Nixon”…
When the reporter asked him why he thought that, Our Harry bristled a little – he was, after all, an Old Man – and said: “Because Nixon’s a shifty-eyed lying son-of-a-bitch”…
Harry Truman never met Rudy Giuliani…
(Neither did Will Rogers, for that matter)
Rudy is on the short list.
Duncan Hunter, dead in the water.
Tancredo tanked today.
Thompson is so asleep his snoring is keeping me awake.
Romney will get the country club set
Huckabee will bring out the Bible-beaters and Christian grannies.
Ron Paul will be the spoiler, the Ralph Nader of this election.
Ron Paul is who my money is on.
On The Dem side, I can’t figure it out just yet.
All the good candidates are second tier members.
I like Richardson, Dodd, and Mr. Biden,the Senator from Delaware.
I also like Kucinich and Gravel.
That said, in 1986 I predicted (while having a drink with a beautiful model and her not so beautiful tag-along girlfrinds in Mammoth Mountain Ca.) that Madonna was a flash in the pan.
The nightmare senario is we have another terrist attack, Cheney retires, Bush suspends the constitution and the election, appoints Jeb as Vice Pres, and we sink into the worst recession in history.
The public is finally getting wise to what a self-serving slime bucket Rudy really is. He fleeced New York City taxpayers out of $400,000 dollars so that he could shag his sleazy paramour out in the Hamptons.
Unfortunately, Rudy will stay in the race so long as he can milk a buck out of it.
erinyes,
The “worst recession in history” will precede the election. The recession will be the impetus behind a Democratic landslide.
What is this “worst RECESSION in history” bullshit???
When things get that bad, it’s called a DEPRESSION…
Like the one in the 1930’s…Just in case you haven’t heard of it before…(Educated in California, were you?)
My father graduated from high school in 1930…And because he was a “good kid” from a “good family” he landed a job cleaning feathers off chicken carcxasses for one dollar a day (and a chicken sandwich for lunch) in St. Louis…He was fortunate to have a married sister there, who gave him a place to live (he paid rent – soemtimes with chickens)…
That same year, my mother – then aged 12 – took her first full-time job as a domestic servant…
Them was “Hard Times”…Reached a point where somthing like 1/4 to 1/3 of the “heads of households” in the U.S. were “out of work”…There was very, very little in the way of a social “safety net” at the time (None at all if you Black or foriegn-born)..No unemployment insurance, no welfare, no help and no hope for millions of honest, willing working-class Americans…
I learned much more about the “Great Depression” in our living room, at our kitchen table, and down at my Pop’s shop, than I ever did in school at any level…
Let us dispense with this crap about “worst recession”…
Chief –
And what would the Democrats DO with a landslide, if they got one. What concerns me is that we don’t have a Democratic leader with the principles to renounce the powers of the imperial presidency, toss the money-changers from the temple (lobbyists in DC) and restore democracy. I can see Dems winning big; I can’t see them doing anything with it – at least not for me.
I believe you are right Chief. I’m hoping the second tier of the Dem candidates does better than the three headliners. Biden, Richardson , and Dodd are all pretty impressive.
Responding to Marvel’s comment,(OMG!) I certainly hope it isn’t a DEPRESSION that we’re headed towards, a severe recession would be bad enough, but ya never know.
Things are pretty bad with the sub prime melt down, rediculous food and fuel prices, devaluation of the dollar, etc.
I think I struck a nerve, but like I wrote, I once said Madonna was a flash in the pan, she turned out to be an enduring entertainer, like her or not…
I hope my prediction is wrong. ( BTW, I was NOT educated in CA, but who gives a flying fudgsicle were I was educated?Jeesh!!)
Read my comment again, I was trying for a bit of HUMOR.
And yes Doug Hughes, what does one do when handed this pile of crap created by Bush? I don’t envy the schmuch that get’s clean-up detail
Somebody is gonna hafta propose meaningful election reform…
And by “meaningful”, I mean starting with the MEDIA…
“It’s the Media, Stupid”…
Or perhaps…
“It’s the Stupid Media, Shithead”
I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and the Happiest of Holidays and a Happy New Year. I am going to vacation from all things political. I’m going watch Bowl games and Christmas movies and catch up on my murder mystery reading. The campaign season is WAAAAAAYYYYYYY too long for me. Check back you after the New Year.
Pingback: 2008 President election » Blog Archive » Republicans Gear Up for Motor City Debate